8 Ways Free Agency Has Impacted the 2014 NFL Draft

Now that the first major surge of free agency has finished, it's time to take a look at how it might have changed the draft.

Of course, teams have plans A, B and C based on what they can and can't do in free agency, because you never know when you'll get outbid on one player but find another guy cut loose who you didn't expect to hit the street.

Some events in free agency gave us an insight into how the league might be looking at a particular position group, while others will tell us a little about what specific teams could be looking at come May.

We've got a bit of both here as we try to read the tea leaves and see what awaits us in this year's NFL draft.

Cornerbacks Are Hot Commodities

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

As a general note, we saw a very strong market for cornerbacks. Alterraun Verner was gone almost immediately, with Aqib Talib right on his heels. Darrelle Revis barely had his feet on the street before the New England Patriots signed him.

What does this mean for the draft? Well, only this—teams know they need good corners to win football games. So we could see more corners go earlier this year than we have in years prior.

Even teams like Denver, New England and Tampa Bay could look to pad their depth chart with some rookie corners.

As the years pass and the NFL throws more and more, next to quarterback, cornerback may prove to be one of the most critical positions on the football field.

Teams know this, and the domino effect could be some second and third-tier corners pushing up the board in the late first and early second round.

And by the way, if your kid is looking to play football, it might be a wise investment to teach him how to play defensive back.

Raiders Won’t Take an Early Quarterback

Ben Margot/Associated Press

There are a few dots you can connect to come to this conclusion.

First, and most obviously, acquiring Matt Schaub from the Houston Texans. It’s very clear that the Raiders organization believes last season was an aberration and that Schaub will bounce back. Raiders head coach Dennis Allen believes Schaub is “on par with the quarterbacks in (the AFC West),” according to John Breech of CBSSports.com.

While it’s definitely overstating it that Schaub has or will ever be Peyton Manning’s equal, it was only a year ago people scoffed that Alex Smith and Philip Rivers could be good, and both had great 2013 seasons.

So it could happen.

There are also reports that the Raiders have their eyes on quarterbacks who aren’t the top three.

David White of the Sacramento Bee says the Raiders have “a massive crush” on Fresno State’s Derek Carr. They could also look at Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who has definitely continued to increase his draft profile over the last few months.

Carr could go earlier than the Raiders are willing to pull the trigger on him (White mentions in his article that the team will not take him at No. 5), but Garoppolo should still be there early in the second round, or at least be cheaper to jump back into the first than Carr.

Or, of course, the team could wait and grab an Aaron Murray or Zach Mettenberger later as well.

Suffice to say, there is enough here to make me think they don’t pull the trigger on one of the top three quarterbacks unless one of them tumbles down the first round.

Houston, Jacksonville and Cleveland Are All in on Early Quarterebacks

Mark Duncan/Associated Press

On the flip side, it’s hard to imagine the above three teams not going quarterback early, though in Cleveland’s case they could wait and grab one with their second first-round pick.

That said, each one cleared the decks of many of their quarterbacks and nobody remaining is a sure thing to be a long-term solution at the position.

You might be able to argue Brian Hoyer, but while Josh Sanchez of SI.com reports his recovery from ACL surgery is ahead of schedule, we still don’t know for sure if he is an answer for the Browns or a good placeholder.

Each team has made room for a new face under center, so at some point during the draft’s first two days they will pick up someone to be that face.

Carolina Has to Grab Some Receivers

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While the Carolina Panthers signed Jerricho Cotchery, they’re still low on quality receivers, and as much as I like Cotchery, he’s not a No. 1 receiver. He might not be a No. 2 either.

The remaining receivers are too young and inexperienced to be relied upon. Drafting someone in the first round won’t change that, but you can grab someone with more ability and upside.

Cutting Steve Smith made sense from a financial standpoint. However, not replacing him with a true lead receiver puts the Panthers in the position of having to replace him with a high draft pick.

Running Backs Will Continue to Drop

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

As of the posting of this article, Maurice Jones-Drew is still unsigned. While Toby Gerhart and Rashad Jennings were signed relatively quickly, it took Ben Tate a week to find a job with the Cleveland Browns.

Both Jennings and Gerhart were signed to reasonable contracts (though I think the Jaguars overpaid for Gerhart), and Tate’s contract is just a two-year, $6.2 million contract with $2.5 guaranteed.

None of that is bank-busting amounts of cash either. Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson were really two of the last to cash in big, and since Johnson is underperforming his contract in a big way, you won’t see too many from here on out.

What does this have to do with running backs in the draft?

Well, it just tells you that a team is willing to wait and not fight for the perceived “most talented” backs. They don’t mind taking a chance on a less heralded (and less costly) option.

With that in mind, it makes sense that teams will be more than willing to spend high picks on more vital and sometimes shallower positions.

It really wouldn’t shock me if we not only didn't see a first-round running back this year, but a second-round back as well.

Offensive Tackles Will Be a Hot Commodity Again

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

While many teams spent some large amounts of cash on the top offensive tackles in free agency, there are far more who couldn’t because once the top few were gone, the talent drops off quickly.

In the 2013 NFL draft, there were a total of 18 offensive tackles taken—five of them in the first round and eight total taken in the first two days. In 2012, there were 19 taken total, two of which were taken in the first, but eight of which were taken in the first two days. In 2011, there were six first-round offensive tackles and 11 total for the first two days.

The past three years have seen a pretty consistent pattern that over the first three rounds of a draft, the tackles go hot and heavy. Two of those years saw a ton of tackles go in the first round alone.

That’s a pattern we could see again this year. Not only because there are teams who need a left tackle, but because with defenses today you need two tackles able to protect the quarterback.

It’s not enough for most teams to grab a left tackle and call it good—you need bookends.

Seeing the paychecks the top tackles got—and even some of the lower-tier guys—tells me that once again, tackles (and the offensive line in general) will be in high demand.

With Likely Switch to the 3-4, Falcons Could Be in Market for Outside Pass Rush

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Signing Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai on the first day of free agency was a commitment by the Atlanta Falcons to move to a 3-4, where both guys are much more effective.

While they haven’t made it official, ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure reported that owner Arthur Blank all but said that’s what they’re poised to do.

Both Jackson and Solai are much better against the run, so the Falcons—3-4 or not—need more help outside for the pass rush.

Supporting this is the recent report by McClure that the Falcons are going to have a private workout with UCLA outside linebacker Anthony Barr. The other linebacker to go high—Buffalo’s Khalil Mack—doesn’t currently have a workout set with the Falcons, but that could happen yet or could be the Falcons know all they need to with Mack.

McClure also reported that the Falcons already had a private workout with Minnesota defensive lineman Ra’Shede Hageman, who they coached in the Senior Bowl. As the article says, it’s possible Hageman could be a defensive end in a 3-4 scheme.

While offensive line seems like a higher priority need, the Falcons will address the outside pass rush, more than likely at linebacker given their impending switch to the 3-4 base.

Jets Could Go Defensive Back for the Second Straight Year

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY

New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan’s defensive scheme is predicated on his ability to rely on his cornerbacks, but after the initial surge of free agency, the Jets appear anything but stable at the position.

Second-year corner Dee Milliner finished the season strong, but is no sure thing at this point in his career. Darrin Walls was outstanding in relief of an injured (and now departed) Antonio Cromartie, though like Milliner, it may be hard to trust him for 16 games.

On top of that, the safety position continues to be very weak and was something the Jets didn’t try to address in free agency.

Signing Eric Decker was a good first step towards fixing the wide receivers, and with the receiver draft class very deep, the Jets don’t have to rush to grab a player in the first round.

So, amazing as it seems, the Jets could be looking at drafting a defensive back with their first pick for the second year in a row if the value is right.

Picking up someone like Alabama safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Louisville safety Calvin Pryor or Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert at No. 18, while not what some Jets fans want to see, might be the best use of their selection.

Andrew Garda is a member of the Pro Football Writers Association. He is also a member of the fantasy football staff at FootballGuys.com and the NFL writer at CheeseheadTV.com. You can follow him @andrew_garda on Twitter.