NFL Draft 2014: Analyzing Likely Candidates for No. 1 Overall Pick

The Houston Texans are in the enviable but always difficult position of holding the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming 2014 NFL draft. This year's talent pool is widely regarded as one of the deepest in history, thanks to an unprecedented number of underclassmen making the leap to the pros early.

Houston has to dive in first, and getting a shallow return on their investment would be viewed as a grander failure than usual, since many teams figure to land a surefire key player in the first round at great value.

It's a burdensome ordeal for Texans general manager Rick Smith and the front office. The Texans need a quarterback, but the premier prospects at the position aren't certain to be superstars. As important as that is, there's also a rare defensive athlete available who will be difficult to pass up.

There is still plenty of time between now and May 8's draft, but educated speculation on who Houston will select won't get tiresome until then.

Note: All combine results courtesy of NFL.com's results tracker.

Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Bortles' physical dimensions (6'5", 232 pounds) fit the prototype for an NFL quarterback. Several experts believe that Bortles' frame and upside will be enough to sell the Texans.

Pete Prisco, Dane Brugler and Will Brinson of CBSSports.com have Bortles going No. 1 to Houston, as does ESPN expert Todd McShay (subscription required) in his latest mock. Coach Bill O'Brien is heralded for his work with signal-callers, most notably with the New England Patriots and Tom Brady.

But this is the worst pick the Texans could make. Looking at the game tape, there doesn't seem to be evidence of Bortles scanning the field or going through his reads. His 4.93 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine was also a big disappointment for a QB who's supposed to be athletic.

NFL Network's Albert Breer heard evaluators compare Bortles to 2012's top draft choice in Andrew Luck but noted that Bortles fell short in terms of athleticism and development:

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3) Most common comparison I heard for Blake Bortles was Andrew Luck, though Bortles is not quite the athlete, and not nearly as developed.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 3, 2014"

Bortles also doesn't have top-flight arm strength—another surprising shortcoming considering how big he is. The more diminutive QBs, Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel, show more zip than Bortles does when he spins the pigskin.

Neither Bridgewater nor Manziel threw at the combine while Bortles did, but that just goes to show the UCF product felt he needed to prove himself more than the others.

In an ideal situation, Bortles would sit and learn for a year or two behind a veteran. It's rare in the modern NFL that a top overall pick isn't the immediate starter. Although the potential is there for Bortles to make the grade as a first-round prospect, he's not ready to take the reins of an NFL franchise in 2014.

Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

Some may criticize Clowney for not going through all the drills at the combine, but with an official time in the 40-yard dash of 4.53, there was really no need.

The 6'5", 266-pounder has a mind-boggling blend of size and speed. Even though the perception is that he doesn't have the work ethic to match, that would change in Houston under O'Brien's no-nonsense watch and with the help of defensive end J.J. Watt.

Houston selected Watt in the first round of the 2011 draft, and he pushed himself to be a truly elite player. He can counsel the young Clowney and teach him how to be a professional on and off the field, assuring that the Texans return to being one of the league's premier defenses.

All-Pro cornerback Johnathan Joseph is excellent in coverage and would stand to benefit even more with Clowney screaming in off the edge along with Watt. Joseph is a South Carolina alum and has known Clowney since his youth. He weighed in on the possibility of the Texans drafting Clowney, per HoustonTexans.com's Drew Dougherty:

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"Obviously, I would like for him to go number one, just because he's a friend of mine. He's a great talent. But it's not my call. Not my decision to make...If we took a guy like him, he could make big dividends for this defense, with J.J. Watt. But at the same time, you have to prepare and look at your team overall and what helps your team best.

"

So Joseph leaves open the idea of the Texans drafting someone else, but Clowney has to be the most prominent player on the organization's mind. There just aren't athletes of his caliber that come along often.

The danger of passing on Clowney is that he has the potential to be just as good as Watt—even better, perhaps—and Houston would look especially bad by taking the wrong quarterback instead. Treading with caution is wise with regard to Clowney; passing on him is not.

Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

The hometown wunderkind known as "Johnny Football" is the sentimental favorite to stay in the Lone Star State and shine in Houston.

Arguably no college athlete in history has endured the media scrutiny Manziel has. He invited some of that with his fiery antics on the field and his penchant for allegedly playing hard off of it.

When the lights came on and Manziel was on the big stage, though, he performed on the gridiron, amassing 93 total touchdowns and a Heisman Trophy in two seasons with the Aggies. Manziel has also been forthcoming about his past and accountable for all his actions, which may prepare him even better for what lies ahead in the pros.

Manziel checked in just under six feet tall at the combine, so seeing over the line is a concern in addition to how he'll handle the hits given how often he runs the ball.

Polarizing opinions persist as to whether or not Manziel's razzle-dazzle, improvisation-heavy game will translate to the NFL. Few can deny the excitement he would bring to a struggling team, though—especially Houston, given the local ties.

The dual-threat phenom brings to mind Washington's Robert Griffin III, who was electric as a rookie but suffered a major knee injury in the playoffs and struggled in his second campaign. Griffin also isn't of the thickest build and was too reckless with his body in the first year.

Those are risks the Texans will have to bear in mind if they go with the sentimental favorite in Manziel at No. 1. Manziel has all the makings of a superstar, but his status as a media magnet and the expectations he shoulders would make him particularly infamous if he busts.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

Among the best QBs, Bridgewater is probably the safest in terms of how pro-ready he is. The Louisville product has the highest floor of all the prospects in the event that he doesn't pan out. Chief among the concerns about Bridgewater are his slender frame (214 pounds at the combine) and lack of elite arm talent.

However, there is no doubting Bridgewater's football acumen, decision-making and knack for putting his offense in position to succeed.

Check out some key points in the evaluation conducted by Josh Norris of Rotoworld, who has Bridgewater No. 1 on his big board, per NBC Sports' official Twitter account:

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Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater takes the top spot on @JoshNorris' big board for the #NFLDraft. http://t.co/o54qEjeedh pic.twitter.com/Cu8pH7HwH8

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) March 13, 2014"

Uncanny accuracy and mechanics are the characteristics of a potential elite NFL QB, and those are areas where Bridgewater is superior to both Bortles and Manziel. Bridgewater is also a better athlete than advertised and may even be a bit quicker than Bortles.

O'Brien would have to like all of that, and should be able to throw more complex concepts at Bridgewater at an earlier point in the season if the Texans bring him in. Then again, the physical rigors of the pros may be too much for Bridgewater to handle, and he could find himself overwhelmed at the next level despite his sharp schematic wit.

There are pros and cons to all the quarterbacks. All of them have the potential to light it up in Houston, yet none of them have separated from the pack as the clear-cut choice. Since O'Brien is supposed to be a great QB mentor anyway, the Texans should go with another veteran or stay in-house with Case Keenum for the short-term.

That should lead Houston to select Clowney, whose combination of physical gifts and room to improve are too good to pass up. Watt and Clowney alone would devastate opponents and allow Houston to have a stronger physical identity and perhaps take back control of the AFC South as soon as this coming season.