NFL Draft 2014: Buying or Selling Draft Stock for Prospects After Combine
Now that many have identified which draft prospects helped and hurt their stocks at the 2014 combine, let's decide if we should be buying or selling their stock fluctuations.
While there weren't any stunning developments—good or bad—in Indianapolis, a handful of players did well for themselves and others looked to be less athletic and explosive than many believed.
But how does the tape match up with these players? Will their combine efforts affect how they're viewed by NFL teams?
Let's take a look.
All combine results courtesy of NFL.com's results tracker.
Stock Up: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
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Stock Movement: BUY
At the combine, Aaron Donald measured in at 6'0'' and 285 pounds with 32 5/8" arms. To some, he's too small to play defensive tackle in the NFL.
But in a 4-3 alignment, defensive tackles have become vital interior rushers, and that's what Donald does well.
He wins with quickness, leverage and sheer explosion off the line.
Inside Lucas Oil Stadium, Donald put on an absolute show—he was arguably the most impressive of all 300-plus participants.
Donald ran an almost unfathomable 4.68 in the 40-yard dash with a ridiculous 10-yard split of 1.59. For perspective, Donald's 10-yard split was better than the 10-yard splits of wideouts Kelvin Benjamin from Florida State and Brandon Coleman from Rutgers.
Donald's stock is on the rise, and his tape—he led the nation with 28.5 tackles for loss in 2013—backs up his combine performance.
Stock Down: Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama
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Stock Movement: BUY
Cyrus Kouandjio opened some eyes early at the combine when he measured in at nearly 6'7'' and 322 pounds with monstrously long 35 5/8" arms.
After he went through the on-field drills—and ran a disappointing 5.59 40-yard dash with a 10-yard split of 1.79—the medical red flags went up, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport:
"Bad news for Bama OT Cyrus Kouandjio. I’m told several teams have failed him on his physical. Arthritic knee from failed surgery. “Ugly.”
"
Per draft insider Tony Pauline, the former Crimson Tide left tackle's on-field effort in Indy was less than encouraging to at least one team:
"Back from combine workout. Bills scout commented earlier, "Cyrus Kouandjio say goodbye to round one"...sluggish, slow & totally unprepared.
"
For a highly touted high school recruit with a legitimate NFL left tackle frame, Kouandjio's film is unpleasantly hit or miss.
Coming into the 2013 season, he was widely considered a first-round lock. That probably isn't the case anymore.
Stock Up: Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
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Stock Movement: BUY
If you watch any Ohio State film from 2012 or 2013, Ryan Shazier will stand out.
He demonstrated what looked like incredible athleticism from his linebacker position for the Buckeyes during his entire career in Columbus.
At the combine, Shazier validated what he exhibited on tape.
Measuring in at a solid 6'1'' and 237 pounds, the Ohio State star didn't run the 40-yard dash but posted a ridiculous 42-inch vertical and a linebacker-best 10'10" broad jump.
For someone as physically gifted as Shazier, he wasn't necessarily a coverage dynamo in college, but teams will view him as a weakside linebacker and allow him to roam free to get after running backs and blitz the quarterback often.
His stock might not be skyrocketing, but it certainly isn't falling.
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Stock Down: De'Anthony Thomas, RB, Oregon
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Stock Movement: SELL
On multiple occasions during his efficient collegiate career, De'Anthony Thomas looked like the fastest player in the country.
He averaged a robust 7.8 yards per carry and 11.5 yards per catch while at Oregon and scored 41 touchdowns from scrimmage on 356 touches.
There was considerable hype surrounding his 40-yard dash, but Thomas ran a disappointing 4.50 while similarly skilled Dri Archer ran a blistering 4.26.
With Thomas, though, a team will get a remarkably quick-twitch scatback with desired spatial awareness and vision.
He might not be the home-run threat at the NFL level many believed he could be, but Thomas has Darren Sproles-esque quickness.
His slower 40 shouldn't significantly hurt his draft stock.
Stock Up: Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
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Stock Movement: BUY
Brandin Cooks ran a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash, the fastest among wide receivers, a time that trailed only Dri Archer among all combine participants.
Also, he had the fastest 20- and 60-yard shuttle times.
Basically, he's easily likened to Tavon Austin, but a team won't have to trade up to No. 8 overall to select him.
Furthermore, Cooks was used on more intermediate and deep routes at Oregon State than Austin was at West Virginia, so many could consider him slightly more "refined" than the first receiver taken in the 2013 draft.
The great 40-yard dash time solidified his stock as a burner with suddenness and the ability to rapidly change directions without the loss of much speed.
Stock Down: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
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Stock Movement: SELL
At the "large" wide receiver spot, the combine was an opportunity for Kelvin Benjamin or Mike Evans to separate from one another.
Benjamin measured in at 6'5'' and 240 pounds to Evans' 6'4 1/2" and 231 pounds, but the latter proved to be more impressive athletically across the board.
Here's what Bleacher Report Lead Writer Michael Schottey wrote about the Benjamin-Evans dynamic:
"At the combine, Evans was better athletically in almost every way. So, he has at least equal upside (if not higher), and he was the vastly better receiver in college. After Indianapolis, there's less room between him and Watkins than there is between Evans and the rest of the field.
"
Schottey certainly makes a valid point—Evans created separation.
However, were many expecting Benjamin to test better than Evans?
Although he ran more routes at Florida State than Evans did at Texas A&M, Benjamin's age (23) and habitual drops made him more of a late first- or early second-round prospect while Evans' tape showed a player who looks to be a legitimate first-rounder.
Benjamin's combine effort, even relative to 21-year-old Evans, shouldn't change how he's perceived that much.
Stock Up: Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
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Stock Movement: BUY
While Greg Robinson was getting all the publicity for scorching the on-field drills, Taylor Lewan was running the fastest 40 among offensive linemen.
At 6'7" and 309 pounds, his 4.87 time was, arguably, just as impressive as Robinson's 4.92 at 6'5" and 332 pounds.
Also, he had a better vertical jump and broad jump than Robinson, and he timed better in the shuttle drills.
There's some concern about Lewan's temper, but for an offensive lineman, having a nasty streak is probably better than being timid.
He had a stellar career at Michigan despite the team's late-season running woes in 2013.
Lewan showed scouts and coaches in Indianapolis that he's quite the athletic specimen.
Stock Down: Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU
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Stock Movement: SELL
Jarvis Landry measured in at slightly over 5'11'' and 204 pounds at the combine.
At that size, many scouts likely wanted to see a time under 4.50 in the 40-yard dash.
That didn't happen.
The LSU star ran an official 4.77 and only ran one attempt after a bad first time.
Landry's stock will plummet on some draft boards after a poor showing in Indianapolis, which could hurt him financially. But now, he very well could be drafted at tremendous value.
During his time spent with the Tigers, Landry demonstrated a large catch radius for someone of his size and polished route-running ability.
He's specifically skilled in the intricacies of playing the wideout position.
Basically, he doesn't have to do much developing, which is vital for a receiver trying to make the transition from even the SEC to the NFL.
Stock Up: Dri Archer, RB, Kent State
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Stock Movement: BUY
After the combine, Dri Archer just might be the top "scatback" in the 2014 class. De'Anthony Thomas received much more notoriety playing at Oregon than Archer did at Kent State, but a 4.26 is a 4.26, and their film isn't vastly different.
Archer wins in a lot of the same ways Thomas does—in space and with violent change-of-direction ability—and they can both play at 175 pounds in the NFL.
With Archer, a team will get a player that can not only make a defender miss in the open field, but also a guy who can outrun the entire defense after his juke move leaves a linebacker or cornerback diving at air.
For an organization looking for a Darren Sproles type player, Archer could represent more value than Thomas because of his top-end speed.
Stock Down: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
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Stock Movement: BUY
It's funny how the tight end position has evolved over the past five years or so in the NFL.
At 6'5'' and 265 pounds, Jace Amaro ran a 4.74 40-yard dash, which in a vacuum is an awesome time. But Eric Ebron, the prospect he's competing with for top "receiving" tight end in the class, was clocked at 4.60 in the 40.
That won't kill Amaro's stock, but for a player who rarely saw time in-line as a blocker at tight end, he needed a combine performance clearly better than Ebron to "pass" him on draft boards at their niche position.
If Amaro goes later in the first round to a team with an established quarterback, he could flourish right away. But right now he's essentially a one-trick pony right now who's not as athletically gifted as Ebron.
His relatively small nine-inch hands won't help how Amaro's viewed, either.
Teams might see him differently now than they did before the combine. Is he still worth a first-round pick?
Stock Up: Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern
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Stock Movement: SELL
Jerick McKinnon was a legitimate workout warrior at this year's combine.
At nearly 5'9" and 209 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.41 seconds, put up 32 reps on the bench press and had a vertical jump of 40.5 inches.
But does his impressive performance in Under Armour gear match what he showed on film?
Well, that's hard to say.
He doesn't have much experience as a traditional running back, having spent most of his time at Georgia Southern as an offensive Swiss Army Knife.
On a team with adequate blocking, McKinnon has the athleticism to be a productive runner, but his combine efforts shouldn't automatically place him among the top backs in the class.
Stock Down: Michael Sam, DE/OLB, Missouri
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Stock Movement: BUY
Scouts weren't expecting Michael Sam to wow athletically at the combine, but his overall performance was pretty discouraging.
He lacked explosion in all the drills, and his 4.91 in the 40-yard dash will harm his draft stock considerably.
On tape, Sam is a high-motor player who simply doesn't have a repertoire of pass-rushing moves or the initial get-off to consistently beat offensive tackles.
His lack of creativity and sheer athleticism are much more concerning than his "tweener" size of 6'1 5/8" and 260 pounds.
Sam's stock will likely take a hit after the combine, and his film shows more of a late-round prospect than, say, a third-round pick.
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