Liver's 2007 NFL Week 1 Picks

After an offseason like this, it’s no wonder I drink. 

Barry Bonds bastardizing the home run record, a boring NBA Finals (my last, by the way), Tim Donaghy finally proving my theory that NBA refs are no good, a doped-up Tour De France, Pacman Jones, Tank Johnson, and our favorite dog lover Michael “Ookie” Vick...

Depressing as all hell.

Bourbon if you please, bartender. 

Is it just me or does every offseason seem to get longer and longer? I age like a dog, no pun intended, when it comes the NFL—seven months of no games feels more like seven years.

I guess that’s what homemade carbon-freeze chambers are for.  

A word of warning to all you wagerers: Many well-respected handicappers, of which I am surely NOT one, get off to miserable NFL starts. Analysis is near impossible until you see how a club’s on-field product looks—and preseason doesn’t mean shit.

You don't learn much about a team until after its first two games—so if the Liver has a less-than-stellar start to the season, don’t lose faith. We got off to a shaky start last season and finished out a very strong 130-120-6.  

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. The Liver’s picks are to cover the spread, not straight-up winners. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Whoopi Goldberg, Tank Johnson, Bill Maas, and Travis Henry’s nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Sunday September 9

Denver at Buffalo (+3)

Denver opens up with high hopes and heavy hearts after a tough offseason. The defense should start out strong, but Jay Cutler still has that permanent "Duh" face, which makes me nervous. Still, they’re playing a Buffalo team that must be run by some real geniuses. After a surprising 7-9 season, they let key defensive players like Nate Clements skip town, as well as running back Willis McGahee. Is Charlie Casserly doing some consulting I’m not aware of?

Pick: Denver   

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+4 ½)

Steelers fans will be interested to see if Big Ben has his noggin right—and if he can cut down on those 23 picks from last year. Browns fans are hoping Charlie Frye throws 23 picks in the first half so the Brady Quinn Era can commence. Cowboys fans are hoping that the Browns go 0-16. We can dream can’t we? Bottom line is the Steelers have dominated this rivalry, winning the last seven.

Pick: Steelers 

Philadelphia at Green Bay (+3)

Did you ever think you’d see the day where the Packers would be home dogs in the first game of the year? Apparently I’m one of the few people who thinks this team is gonna suck—but that’s why they play the games. Many people are saying that the defense is excellent, but I don’t see it. Meanwhile, the Packers’ running backs are so unknown that even their own mothers wouldn’t recognize them. Donovan McNabb needs to do what he hasn’t been able to do in three years—play injury-free—in order for Filthy to continue their dominance in the NFC East.

Pick: Filthy 

Kansas City (+3) at Houston

This is going to be a long season for the Chiefs, who have some serious problems moving the football. Larry Johnson will help, but how long will Damon Huard be the answer? The Texans, on the other hand, have finally a real quarterback in Matt Schaub, and Ahman Green looks to have a little tread left on the tires.  I’m sure Texans fans are much happier with this duo than that Young or Bush guy. Wonder if Mario Williams gets a sack today?

Pick: Houston 

Tennessee (+6 ½) at Jacksonville

Jacksonville is on many people’s radar as a Wild Card contender. If that's to be true, they'll need to prove it early by wiping a bad Titans team off the field. David Garrard is the leader now that little pouter Byron Leftwich has been banished to the unemployment line. Vince Young lost ALL of his offensive weapons—he has NOTHING around him. This could get ugly.

Pick: Jacksonville 

Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota

Speaking of ugly. Who knows what Atlanta’s gonna look like, and the only aspect of the Vikings that's worth a damn is their run defense. Both teams will be trying to find an offensive identity—which can be more painful to watch than Miss Teen South Carolina talking about giving the “U.S. Americans” more maps. The Minnesota defense won’t have to worry about Joey Harrington running out of the pocket, that’s for sure. Meanwhile, I’d expect the Falcons defense to bring different blitz packages so as to frustrate Tarvaris Jackson, whom I don't believe is ready to be a starter.

Pick: Minnesota      

New England at New York Jets (+6 ½)

The real drama here is whether that prick Belichick brushes off the Mangenius hug or shoves someone out of the way in order to embrace him. What a classless jerkoff he is.  This has turned into a good rivalry, with the teams splitting two regular season meetings last year before the Pats aired out the Jets in the Wild Card game. Look for the Pats to take to the air again to take advantage of the suspect Jets secondary. The Jets can counter with Thomas Jones, but the key will be whether Chad Pennington can attack the Pats' secondary. With Jones as the Jets' only real offensive weapon, the Pats will load up the front and force Pennington to throw the ball.

Pick: Jets  

Carolina (+1) at St. Louis

Could be an entertaining Offense vs. Defense match up. St. Louis looks to have one of the higher scoring offenses in the league, while the Panthers defense is healthy and anchored by Julius Peppers. Jake Delhomme needs to get off to a good start or else...gulp...David Carr is waiting in the wings. I don’t think this is a news flash, but how 'bout you get the ball to Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams, huh Jake?

Pick: St. Louis   

Miami (+3) at Washington

I really want to take Miami here because of their defense and the inexperience of Redskins QB Jason Campbell...but with an immobile Trent Green and an awful offensive line, I just can’t. The Miami defense can frustrate Campbell, but will they be able to shut down the two-pronged running attack of Portis and Betts? The Washington defense was awful last year, but I can’t see a Gregg Williams defense being that bad two years in a row.

Pick: Washington 

Tampa Bay (+6) at Seattle

Seattle will be at full strength for the first time in a year. Their division will be the toughest in football, so they need to clean up the table scraps known as the Bucs. Six points is a lot to lay opening weekend, but Tampa just flat out sucks. Having a real QB, Jeff Garcia, will help—but he doesn’t have nearly enough offensive weapons to make this team dangerous.

Pick: Seattle 

Chicago (+6) at San Diego

This is a tough one to pick, as both teams are Super Bowl contenders. The X-factor, as always, will be whether Rex Grossman can handle the snap from his center. Cedric Benson hasn’t done anything to prove to me that he can be a feature back. Trading Thomas Jones could come back to haunt the Bears. Reports surface after the game that Brian Griese was seen on the Bears sideline rooting for the Chargers defense. San Diego has Super Bowl-or-bust expectations, which can weigh heavily on a team. They return all their key players and, unlike Chicago, they’re strong on both sides of the ball. I’m taking a chance here, but I think Chicago’s defense can keep this close.   

Pick: Chicago  

Detroit (+2) at Oakland

Raiders fans, enjoy this moment—this is the first and last time this season you'll be favored in any game. Lane Kiffin is playing mind games with Detroit by “keeping them guessing” as to whether Dante Culpepper or Josh McCown will start at QB. Huh? Isn’t that like Nuke telling Crash he wants to announce his presence with authority? As far as the Lions go, I only had pity for them until Jon Kitna shot his mouth off after beating the Cowboys last year. After that, I’m counting the days until December 9th—when I want to see DeMarcus Ware parade around Ford Field with Kitna’s head on a stick. That aside, the Detroit offense could be outstanding with Johnson and Williams on the flanks. Whether or not Tatum Bell can get a ground game going will be key.

Pick: Detroit 

New York Giants (+5 ½) at Dallas

The Sunday night extravaganza. Given the Cowboys's health issues, I’m not quite as confident about this game as I once was.

On defense, Terence Newman is probable; who knows if he’ll play. No offense, but I don’t have much faith in Jacques Reeves holding down one side of the field. Greg Ellis hasn’t played or practiced all preseason, which means means rookie LB Anthony Spencer will start and Bobby Carpenter, who's fast becoming another wasted first-round pick, will see significant time.   

On offense, Terry Glenn is out, bumping Patrick Crayton to number two at receiver and Sam Hurd to number three. In the immortal words of Han Solo, “I’m getting a bad feeling about this.” 

This will be a much closer game than I'd like—but I still think the Cowboys have the better QB and better overall team. The Cowboys MUST put some pressure on little Manning to keep him off balance. If Eli starts hitting Plaxico and Shockey, it could be a long night.

The Cowboys come out on top in the type of game that leaves my dwellings shredded into Lincoln logs. But against the spread...

Pick: Giants  

Monday, September 10 

Baltimore (+2 ½) at Cincinnati

Turn the sound down on this one, as I believe Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic will be calling the game. Yikes. Cincinnati has as much firepower on offense as any team in the league. They just can’t stop anybody. Baltimore’s defense will be the usual pack of rabid dogs. I think Steve McNair just got Dr. Emmett Brown’s number from Brad Johnson...in an attempt to get his DeLorean so he can turn back time. Willis McGahee, who just recently proclaimed himself the best running back in the league, should help. Guess he hasn’t heard of that LT guy.

Pick: Baltimore   

Arizona (+3) at San Francisco

Normally this game would be a laugher, but there are actually expectations for each team. Both have good young QBs and young, fiery coaches looking to make names for themselves. I’m not sold on Arizona with that Lego-Land offensive line, but San Francisco, with its upgrades on defense, should be a Wild Card team. At least we don’t have Joe Theismann to kick around in the booth anymore. Maybe I’ll snap a chicken bone in his honor. Would’ve loved to hear him talk about Notre Dame football though. Think he would’ve even mentioned them once?  Maybe I’ll turn the sound up on this one. But then I’d have to take the audio beating that is Tony Kornheiser.

Pick: San Francisco