Early Line, Odds, Prop Bets and Betting Advice for Super Bowl XLVIII
If you like to take action on the Super Bowl, you likely already know this: The point spread rarely comes into play. Just bet the house—please, don't—and pick a winner.
We take a look at the early line, odds and prop bets to help you cash some Las Vegas tickets Sunday, Feb. 2 as the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks match up in Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
As Vegas Insider points out, in only six of 47 past Super Bowls has the favorite won the game but failed to cover the point spread: 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976. Only twice have the oddsmakers been on the money, resulting in a push or a tie: 2000 and 1997.
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Super Bowl favorites are 33-14 straight up and 26-17-2 against the spread. The over/under is a dead even 23-23 (VI didn't have a total available from Super Bowl I).
The good news for Seattle Seahawks backers, perhaps, is the underdog has cashed in five of the past six and nine of the past 12 Super Bowls, including the past two. Denver is an early 3-point favorite and Seattle is getting +120 on the money line, according to numerous sources, including BetEagle.com and Bovada.lv.
Had you placed a future bet on the Super Bowl winner a few weeks ago, though, you would have gotten the AFC as a 2.5-point underdog. Now that we know the matchup, most of the early money has gone on the Broncos, as Kevin Bradley, sports book manager of Bovada.lv, explains:
"It was the perfect storm for the book on Sunday, as we had the right side of both games and took off the table any Super Bowl future book exposure that could have been damaging. While money over the last few weeks moved to an early Super Bowl line of NFC -2.5, Denver's strong performance against New England combined with the Hawks grind-'em-out style of football puts Denver at -3, and currently two thirds of the early money is on them to cover.
"
Here is the complete Super Bowl betting history, according to Vegas Insider:
| XLVIII | 2013 | Denver -3 (47) | TBD | TBD |
| XLVII | 2013 | San Francisco -4.5 (48) | Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31 | Underdog-Over |
| XLVI | 2012 | New England -2.5 (53) | N.Y. Giants 21, New England 17 | Underdog-Under |
| XLV | 2011 | Green Bay -3 (45) | Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25 | Favorite-Over |
| XLIV | 2010 | Indianapolis -5 (57) | New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17 | Underdog-Under |
| XLIII | 2009 | Pittsburgh -7 (46) | Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23 | Underdog-Over |
| XLII | 2008 | New England -12 (55) | N.Y. Giants 17, New England 14 | Underdog-Under |
| XLI | 2007 | Indianapolis -7 (47) | Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17 | Favorite-Under |
| XL | 2006 | Pittsburgh -4 (47) | Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10 | Favorite-Under |
| XXIX | 2005 | New England -7 (46.5) | New England 24, Philadelphia 21 | Underdog-Under |
| XXXVIII | 2004 | New England -7 (37.5) | New England 32, Carolina 29 | Underdog-Over |
| XXXVII | 2003 | Oakland -4 (44) | Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21 | Underdog-Over |
| XXXVI | 2002 | St. Louis -14 (53) | New England 20, St. Louis 17 | Underdog-Under |
| XXXV | 2001 | Baltimore -3 (33) | Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7 | Favorite-Over |
| XXXIV | 2000 | St. Louis -7 (45) | St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16 | Push-Under |
| XXXIII | 1999 | Denver -7.5 (52.5) | Denver 34, Atlanta 19 | Favorite-Over |
| XXXII | 1998 | Green Bay -11 (49) | Denver 31, Green Bay 24 | Underdog-Over |
| XXXI | 1997 | Green Bay -14 (49) | Green Bay 35, New England 21 | Push-Over |
| XXX | 1996 | Dallas -13.5 (51) | Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17 | Underdog-Under |
| XXIX | 1995 | San Francisco -18.5 | San Francisco 49, San Diego 26 | Favorite-Over |
| XXVIII | 1994 | Dallas -10.5 (50.5) | Dallas 30, Buffalo 13 | Favorite-Under |
| XXVII | 1993 | Dallas -6.5 (44.5) | Dallas 52, Buffalo 17 | Favorite-Over |
| XXVI | 1992 | Washington -7 (49) | Washington 37, Buffalo 24 | Favorite-Over |
| XXV | 1991 | Buffalo -7 (40.5) | N.Y. Giants 20, Buffalo 19 | Underdog-Under |
| XXIV | 1990 | San Francisco -12 (48) | San Francisco 55, Denver 10 | Favorite-Over |
| XXIII | 1989 | San Francisco -7 (48) | San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16 | Underdog-Under |
| XXII | 1988 | Denver -3 (47) | Washington 42, Denver 10 | Underdog-Over |
| XXI | 1987 | N.Y. Giants -9.5 (40) | N.Y. Giants 39, Denver 20 | Favorite-Over |
| XX | 1986 | Chicago -10 (37.5) | Chicago 46, New England 10 | Favorite-Over |
| XIX | 1985 | San Francisco -3.5 | San Francisco 38, Miami 16 | Favortie-Over |
| XVIII | 1984 | Washington -3 (48) | L.A. Raiders 38, Washington 9 | Favorite-Under |
| XVII | 1983 | Miami -3 (36.5) | Washington 27, Miami 17 | Underdog-Over |
| XVI | 1982 | San Francisco -1 (48) | San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21 | Favorite-Under |
| XV | 1981 | Philadelphia -3 (37.5) | Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10 | Underdog-Under |
| XIV | 1980 | Pittsburgh -10.5 (36) | Pittsburgh 31, L.A. Rams 19 | Favorite-Over |
| XIII | 1979 | Pittsburgh -3.5 (37) | Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31 | Favortie-Over |
| XII | 1978 | Dallas -6 (39) | Dallas 27, Denver 10 | Favorite-Under |
| XI | 1977 | Oakland -4 (38) | Oakland 34, Minnesota 14 | Favorite-Over |
| X | 1976 | Pittsburgh -7 (36) | Pittsburgh 21 Dallas 17 | Underdog-Over |
| IX | 1975 | Pittsburgh -3 (33) | Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6 | Favorite-Under |
| VIII | 1974 | Miami -6.5 (33) | Miami 24, Minnesota 7 | Favorite-Under |
| VII | 1973 | Miami -1 (33) | Miami 14, Washington 7 | Favorite-Under |
| VI | 1972 | Dallas -6 (34) | Dallas 24, Miami 3 | Favorite-Under |
| V | 1971 | Baltimore -2.5 (36) | Baltimore 16, Dallas 13 | Favorite-Under |
| IV | 1970 | Minnesota -12 (39) | Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7 | Underdog-Under |
| III | 1969 | Baltimore -18 (40) | N.Y. Jets 16, Baltimore 7 | Underdog-Under |
| II | 1968 | Green Bay -13.5 (43) | Green Bay 33, Oakland 14 | Favorite-Over |
| I | 1967 | Green Bay -14 (N/A) | Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10 | Favorite |
2013 Trends
If you're looking more recent betting data than Super Bowl history, here it is courtesy of Vegas Insider:
It is not uncommon to see good teams with solid numbers against the spread (ATS), particularly if you win the less sexier way...with defense like the Seahawks do. Denver is 11-6-1 ATS, while the Seahawks are slightly better at 12-6. On the total, the Broncos have gone over 11 of 18 times, while the Seahawks have been under more often (12 of 18).
The Seahawks have particularly good numbers ATS versus teams with winning records, going 13-4 in his past 17, as Vegas Insider reports.
Here are the Broncos' betting results this season:
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens | -7.5 | 48 | Won 49 - 27 | Win / Over |
| 2 | @ New York Giants | -3.5 | 54 | Won 41 - 23 | Win / Over |
| 3 | Oakland Raiders | -16.5 | 48 | Won 37 - 21 | Loss / Over |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | -10.5 | 58 | Won 52 - 20 | Win / Over |
| 5 | @ Dallas Cowboys | -7.5 | 57 | Won 51 - 48 | Loss / Over |
| 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -27 | 53 | Won 35 - 19 | Loss / Over |
| 7 | @ Indianapolis Colts | -6.5 | 56 | Lost 33 - 39 | Loss / Over |
| 8 | Washington Redskins | -11 | 58 | Won 45 - 21 | Win / Over |
| 9 | @ San Diego Chargers | -7 | 57 | Won 28 - 20 | Win / Under |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | -7.5 | 49 | Won 27 - 17 | Win / Under |
| 11 | @ New England Patriots | -1 | 54 | Lost 31 - 34 | Loss / Over |
| 12 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | -5 | 50 | Won 35 - 28 | Win / Over |
| 13 | Tennessee Titans | -12.5 | 50 | Won 51 - 28 | Win / Over |
| 14 | San Diego Chargers | -10 | 58 | Lost 20 - 27 | Loss / Under |
| 15 | @ Houston Texans | -10 | 54 | Won 37 - 13 | Win / Under |
| 16 | @ Oakland Raiders | -10 | 54 | Won 34 - 14 | Win / Under |
| 17 | San Diego Chargers | -8 | 55 | Won 24 - 17 | Loss / Under |
| 18 | New England Patriots | -5 | 57 | Won 26 - 16 | Win / Under |
Here are the Seahawks betting results this season:
| 1 | @ Carolina Panthers | -3 | 44 | Won 12 - 7 | Win / Under |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | -3 | 44 | Won 29 - 3 | Win / Under |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -19.5 | 39 | Won 45 - 17 | Win / Over |
| 4 | @ Houston Texans | -1.5 | 41 | Won 23 - 20 | Win / Over |
| 5 | @ Indianapolis Colts | -3 | 44 | Lost 28 - 34 | Loss / Over |
| 6 | Tennessee Titans | -12.5 | 42 | Won 20 - 13 | Loss / Under |
| 7 | @ Arizona Cardinals | -5.5 | 41 | Won 34 - 22 | Win / Over |
| 8 | @ St. Louis Rams | -14 | 43 | Won 14 - 9 | Loss / Under |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -16.5 | 40 | Won 27 - 24 | Loss / Over |
| 10 | @ Atlanta Falcons | -3.5 | 47 | Won 33 - 10 | Win / Under |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | -13 | 45 | Won 41 - 20 | Win / Over |
| 12 | New Orleans Saints | -6.5 | 48 | Won 34 - 7 | Win / Under |
| 13 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 2.5 | 41 | Lost 17 - 19 | Win / Under |
| 14 | @ New York Giants | -9 | 43 | Won 23 - 0 | Win / Under |
| 15 | Arizona Cardinals | -9.5 | 43 | Lost 10 - 17 | Loss / Under |
| 16 | St. Louis Rams | -13 | 41 | Won 27 - 9 | Win / Under |
| 17 | New Orleans Saints | -9 | 44 | Won 23 - 15 | Loss / Under |
| 18 | San Francisco 49ers | -3.5 | 40 | Won 23 - 17 | Win / Under |
Total Domination
Recent Super Bowl history has the total as a 50-50 proposition, just as much as the 23-23 record overall. The over and under have alternated winners each of the past six years. If you are looking for that trend to continue, you need to side with the under.
Not only that, but both the Broncos and Seahawks have played under in their four playoff games. In fact, Seattle's games have gone under in each of the past seven—Denver in each of the past four.
Also, a Super Bowl in New Jersey at the start of February figures to leave some rare inclement weather. The under tends to be a popular bet in those conditions.
Jay Rood, the sports book director of the MGM Mirage, told Bloomberg's Erik Matuszewski:
"Mostly people like to bet unders. I could see this year more of them saying, 'We're going to bet the under, and if the weather is bad, maybe it will work to our benefit. If it's not, we'll work with it.
"
Prop Bets Weather Delay
Perhaps the best part of betting on the Super Bowl are the prop bets. You can bet on the coin toss to the final game MVP—and everything in between. Prop bets make up almost 60 percent of the action at some Las Vegas sports books, Bloomberg's Matuszewski reports.
The rare outdoor, wintry-weather Super Bowl delayed Las Vegas from releasing a lot of the prop bets, Rood told Matuszewski on Monday.
"Everything, except for the basic stuff, is going to (sic) pushed back a day or two so we can get a much more clearer picture of what the weather is going to be like. If we get a forecast that says there's absolutely no chance that the weather is going to be that impactful, as far as snow or whatever, we might accelerate that. But probably not.
"
If you wanted some early advice, Pro Football Talk produced this early, brief video on some of their prop picks.
And, if you want to bet on the weather, Las Vegas will have that, too.
Courtesy of Bovada.lv: Will it snow? Yes is getting +300, while No is -500. The over/under on the temperature at kickoff is 34 degrees, while the over/under on the in-game low is 31 (both in Fahrenheit).
MVP Prop
NFL games usually come down to the quarterbacks, so it is no surprise Bovada's early odds on the Most Valuable Player favor Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson.
Here are the early odds on Super Bowl XLVIII MVP, according to sports publicist Jimmy Shapiro:
| Peyton Manning (DEN) QB | 8/5 |
| Russell Wilson (SEA) QB | 13/4 |
| Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB | 6/1 |
| Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR | 16/1 |
| Wes Welker (DEN) WR | 16/1 |
| Richard Sherman (SEA) DB | 16/1 |
| Percy Harvin (SEA) WR | 16/1 |
| Knowshon Moreno (DEN) RB | 18/1 |
| Eric Decker (DEN) WR | 20/1 |
| Julius Thomas (DEN) TE | 25/1 |
| Golden Tate (SEA) WR | 33/1 |
| Earl Thomas (SEA) | 3/1 |
| Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR | 40/1 |
| Montee Ball (DEN) RB | 50/1 |
| Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DEN) DB | 50/1 |
| Kam Chancellor (SEA) DB | 66/1 |
| Danny Trevathan (DEN) LB | 66/1 |
| Champ Bailey (DEN) DB | 66/1 |
| Zach Miller (SEA) TE | 75/1 |
| Matt Prater (DEN) K | 100/1 |
| Steven Hauschka (SEA) K | 100/1 |
| Duke Ihenacho (DEN) DB | 100/1 |
| Michael Bennett (SEA) DE | 100/1 |
| Field (Any Other Player) | 20/1 |
| Zach Miller (SEA) TE | 75/1 |
| Matt Prater (DEN) K | 100/1 |
| Steven Hauschka (SEA) K | 100/1 |
| Duke Ihenacho (DEN) DB | 100/1 |
| Michael Bennett (SEA) DE | 100/1 |
| Field (Any Other Player) | 20/1 |
Some Wacky Props
Shapiro says Bovada.lv will have a list of close to 500 props. In fact, if you want to bet on something, Shapiro might even have Bovada get it for you if it doesn't already exist!
Here is a sample of the prop-bet minutiae:
How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the US National Anthem?
Over 2 minutes 30 seconds EVEN (1/1)
Under 2 minutes 30 seconds -140 (5/7)
Will Renee Fleming forget or omit at least one word of the official US National Anthem?
Yes +250 (5/2)
No -400 (1/4)
Will Renee Fleming wear gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem?
Yes -200 (1/2)
No +150 (3/2)
If Renee Fleming wears gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem what color will they be?
White 5/4
Black 3/2
Red 4/1
Any Other Color 3/1
Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?
Yes +400 (4/1)
No -700 (1/7)
How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha" during the game?
Over/Under 27½
How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the game?
Over/Under 2½
How many times will Eli Manning be shown on TV during the game?
Over/Under 3½
What will be said more during the game?
Reference to Denver Broncos No. 1 or Best Offense -110
Reference to Seattle Seahawks No. 1 or Best Defense -110
Which coach will be mentioned first by name after kickoff?
Pete Carroll -110
John Fox -110
Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff?
Erin Andrews -140 (5/7)
Pam Oliver EVEN (1/1)
Will Michael Crabtree mention Richard Sherman in a tweet during the Super Bowl from kickoff until final whistle?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
How many times will "12th man" be said during the game?
Over/Under 2½
How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the game?
Over/Under 2
Will the announcers say the word "Marijuana" during the game?
Yes +550 (11/2)
No -900 (1/9)
Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
Other Normal Early Props
Sportsbook.ag has the following props listed as of Thursday morning, Jan. 23:
Coin Toss
Heads -105
Tails -105
Team to Win the Coin Toss
Seahawks -105
Broncos -105
Score in the First Six Minutes
Yes +105
No -135
Team to Score First
Seahawks +105
Broncos -125
First Score of the Game Will Be
Touchdown -160
Any Other +130
Longest Touchdown
Over 44.5 (-115)
Under 44.5 (+115)
First Quarter
Seahawks +.5 (-140) / +110 ML
Broncos -.5 (+120) / -130 ML
Over 9.5 (-120)
Under 9.5 (even)
First Half
Seahawks +1.5 (-110) / +115 ML
Broncos -1.5 (-110) / -135 ML
Over 23.5 (-110)
Under 23.5 (-110)
Weather the Storm
Weather effects tend to be overrated and might just make the line more reasonable, particularly for those that dismiss Manning's history in poor weather conditions. It is real early to try to forecast the East Rutherford, N.J., conditions, but Accuweather lists Feb. 2 to be high of 40, low of 25, possible snow showers and only a slight breeze in the single digits (mph).
Sloppier conditions would figure to favor Seattle and its defense, although defenders slipping in the snow can make Manning's quartet of receivers, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas, real tough to stay with.
Early Advice
The betting public isn't always right—Las Vegas casinos have booming business for a reason—but going with Manning's Super Bowl experience over the brash, trash talking of Richard Sherman and the Seahawks is my play if you're laying some early action. Parlay Denver (-3) with the over (47) and Manning as game MVP.
Prop Picks
- Heads
- Seahawks win toss
- No score in the first six minutes
- Seahawks score first
- First score will not be a touchdown
- No touchdown over 44.5 yards
Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report this season. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.
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