Baseball Betting: Texas Rangers v. New York Yankees Odds, Picks: June 2

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees – June 2, 2009 7:05 p.m.
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Many assume that games between the Rangers and Yankees are typically going to be high-scoring. That’s not always the case though. In fact, looking at the last 15 meetings and we find the UNDER at a profitable 8-5-2. The last five meetings have averaged just 8.8 runs. With Yankee Stadium proving to be “hitter-friendly,” thus far, we’ve got a high over/under number (opened at 10.5 and climbed to 11 at some shops and now back to 10.5) to work with. I won’t be surprised if this evening’s game also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting.

Burnett is coming off a gem v. these same Rangers, which saw him allow just three hits through six shutout innings. That was the sixth time that he has faced Texas and he allowed four earned runs or less in all six games. He had a solid 3.66 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in those games with the ‘under’ going 4-1-1. That includes a 3-0-1 mark since Burnett moved over to the American League.

While it’s true that the Rangers will be getting a second look at him in a short time (which can be helpful to hitters), I think the fact that Burnett pitched so well is more important, as he’d gone through a tough stretch and has now delivered two quality starts in his last three. He’s a “streaky” pitcher and when “on,” he’s capable of dominating - even against a lineup that has just seen him. It should also be noted that the Rangers, who are expected to be without slugger Josh Hamilton, typically don’t hit nearly as well outside of Texas. While their offensive stats at home are great, the Rangers are averaging just 4.5 runs per game on the road and hitting only .249.

Padilla managed to avoid the Yankees in the recent series. He was ‘ok’ in last season’s start against them, allowing four runs through six complete innings. He had five K’s and one walk. He was sharp in his lone start here at New York though, allowing just three hits (and two runs) through 6 2/3 innings. While this is a new version of Yankee Stadium, the point is that he wasn’t bothered by pitching under the ‘big city lights.’

More importantly, Padilla has been dominant of late. In his last three starts he’s gone 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a terrific 1.57 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. He went at least seven complete innings in all three start, including eight in two of them - he didn’t allow a home run in any of them. For the season, he’s got a 2.08 ERA and a stingy 0.807 WHIP on the road. It should be noted that Padilla is coming off the disabled list for a strained shoulder and that he hasn’t pitched since mid-May. That was one of the reasons this didn’t quite make the cut as a “guaranteed”selection. All the same, I feel the ‘under’ is worth considering.