College Football Bowl Picks 2013: Analyzing the Spreads of All 35 Games

Is there a better way to celebrate the holidays than by watching the 35 bowl games that make up college football’s second season? As we begin the journey that culminates in the national championship game on Jan. 6, here are against-the-spread picks for every bowl game, including a breakdown of some of the more intriguing lines and matchups.

Bowl Game	Matchup	ATS Pick
New Mexico Bowl	Washington State vs. Colorado State	Colorado State +5.5
Las Vegas Bowl	Fresno State vs. USC	USC -6
Potato Bowl	Buffalo vs. San Diego State	Buffalo +1.5
New Orleans Bowl	Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette	Tulane -1.5
St. Petersburg Bowl	Ohio vs. East Carolina	East Carolina -14
Hawaii Bowl	Boise State vs. Oregon State	Oregon State -3
Pizza Bowl	Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green	Bowling Green -4.5
Poinsettia Bowl	Utah State vs. Northern Illinois	Utah State +1.5
Military Bowl	Marshall vs. Maryland	Marshall -2.5
Texas Bowl	Syracuse vs. Minnesota	Minnesota -4.5
Fight Hunger Bowl	BYU vs. Washington	BYU +3
Pinstripe Bowl	Rutgers vs. Notre Dame	Notre Dame -14
Belk Bowl	Cincinnati vs. North Carolina	North Carolina -2.5
Russell Athletic Bowl	Miami vs. Louisville	Louisville -3.5
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Michigan vs. Kansas State	Kansas State -3.5
Armed Forces Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs. Navy	Navy -6.5
Music City Bowl	Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech	Ole Miss -3
Alamo Bowl	Oregon vs. Texas	Oregon -13.5
Holiday Bowl	Arizona State vs. Texas Tech	Arizona State -14
V100 Bowl	Arizona vs. Boston College	Boston College +7.5
Sun Bowl	Virginia Tech vs. UCLA	UCLA -7
Liberty Bowl	Rice vs. Mississippi State	Mississippi State -7
Chick-fil-A Bowl	Duke vs. Texas A&M	Duke +12.5
Gator Bowl	Nebraska vs. Georgia	Nebraska +9
Dallas Bowl	UNLV vs. North Texas	North Texas -6.5
Capital One Bowl	Wisconsin vs. South Carolina	Wisconsin -1
Outback Bowl	Iowa vs. LSU	Iowa +7.5
Rose Bowl	Stanford vs. Michigan State	Stanford -5.5
Fiesta Bowl	UCF vs. Baylor	UCF +16.5
Sugar Bowl	Alabama vs. Oklahoma	Alabama -15.5
Orange Bowl	Clemson vs. Ohio State	Ohio State -2.5
Cotton Bowl	Oklahoma State vs. MIssouri	Missouri -1
Compass Bowl	Vanderbilt vs. Houston	Houston +2.5
GoDaddy Bowl	Arkansas vs. Ball State	Ball State -8.5
National Championship Game	Florida State vs. Auburn	Florida State -8.5

Alamo Bowl: Texas vs. Oregon (-14)

This is one of the biggest lines of all the bowl games, and there are plenty of factors that go into the thought process.

The Oregon Ducks have been uninspiring since their loss to Stanford took them out of the running for the national championship game. Oregon went 2-2 in its last four games, including a blowout loss at the hands of Arizona State and a one-point win over Oregon State.

Texas, on the other hand, has bounced back from a disappointing start to finish one win away from the Big-12 championship. The Longhorns won seven of their last nine games, with their only losses coming to 12th-ranked Oklahoma State and ninth-ranked Baylor.

In those two losses, however, the Longhorns were blown out by a combined score of 68-23 and were dominated on the ground, allowing 404 rushing yards and three scores.

That doesn’t bode well against a talented Oregon team with a devastating rushing attack that ranks ninth in the country, averaging 278 yards per game.

The whole “playing for Mack Brown’s last win” storyline is a nice touch, but the Ducks are just too talented and explosive on offense to not put up a boatload of points on the Texas defense.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Duke (+12.5)

This should be a highly entertaining matchup in what will probably be Johnny Manziel’s last college game. The Texas A&M offense is extremely dangerous with “Johnny Football” at the helm, but both teams are capable of putting up points in bunches, and this will be a shootout.

Don’t sleep on the Duke Blue Devils just because it seems strange to be talking about them in a football context. Head coach David Cutcliffe has his team playing extremely well, and the Blue Devils are scoring over 30 points per game.

The Aggies should come away with the win, but their 88th-ranked scoring defense that allows opponents to score 30.9 points per game will prevent them from covering the spread.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs. Stanford (-5.5)

This will be an extremely physical game between two of the best defenses in the nation.

Michigan State is coming off a very impressive win over the previously undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten championship game after it physically dominated Urban Meyer’s team.

Nevertheless, Stanford can match up with the Spartans’ brute strength, and quarterback Kevin Hogan gives the Cardinal a big advantage on the offensive side of the ball.

This year’s version of the Rose Bowl will be a low-scoring slugfest, and Stanford has enough weapons on offense to cover the spread and take home the trophy.

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (-1)

The line for this game has moved around a little bit, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see it end as a pick’em. That would be extremely fitting for such an even matchup between the former Big-12 rivals.

This is easily one of the most difficult games to predict, especially considering how both teams lost their last games in such disappointing fashion.

Oklahoma State needed to beat the rival Oklahoma Sooners in Stillwater to punch its ticket to a BCS bowl game, but it came up short at home and lost the conference crown as a result.

Missouri lost a lopsided game, but it came at the hands of an Auburn team that is competing for a national championship.

At the end of the day, it’s tough to pick between the two, but we’ll give the edge to Missouri, which was the victim of a very hot Auburn team and Gus Malzahn’s unique offense.

National Championship Game: Florida State (-8.5) vs. Auburn

We finally get to the grand finale, and what a matchup it is!

Auburn has been the darling of the college football season, giving us the two best endings of the year. But the Tigers are much more than a Cinderella story. First-year head coach Gus Malzahn has completely turned Auburn around with a dominant rushing attack led by Heisman finalist Tre Mason.

The Seminoles possess the 14th-best rushing defense in the nation, giving up 116.5 yards per game, but that stat is skewed by their dominant margins of victory, which frequently cause opposing teams to abandon the run and take to the air.

Their closest win of the season came against Boston College, when running back Andre Williams picked up 149 rushing yards, and the Eagles as a whole gained 200 yards on the ground.

Winning the battle on the ground will be the key to the championship game, and Florida State has enough defensive talent to get the job done. Even though Heisman winner Jameis Winston is the star of the show, the Seminoles are stacked with playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Florida State has been exceptionally dominant all season, winning games by an average of 42 points. The matchup against Auburn should be thoroughly entertaining, but the Seminoles are the best team in the country, and they’ll prove as much with a convincing win over the Tigers.