NFL Week 15 Odds, Lines, Spreads for Each Game

I was going to make some bold proclamation, compare myself to Kanye West and write as a wrestling heel to kick off my NFL Week 15 picks against the spread. I wanted the spotlight.

But then I realized that with my stellar six-week challenge record, I don't need to stir the pot to get a attention. My winning picks would do that on their own. 

That's right! I've finally hit my stride. And I'm letting everyone know about it.

Give me a break. I'm a Lions fan. Picking a few games correctly is pretty much all I have. 

Well, and the cat. But you can still cut me some slack.

Last Week's Record: 11-5

Six-Week Challenge: 26-19-1

Season Record: 89-112-7

All lines are courtesy of FootballLOCKS.com. All advanced metrics and rankings are provided by Pro Football Focus and require a subscription. 

San Diego Chargers +10.5 vs. Denver Broncos

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

You're not going to believe this. I actually lost a game that involved the San Diego Chargers. 

Oh wait, that happens EVERY SINGLE WEEK. I've whiffed on my last four Chargers games and have developed a serious disdain for all things San Diego that don't include Ron Burgundy.

That's right. I detest the Chargers so much I even hate the Padres for playing in the same beautiful city. 

So, naturally, I'm taking Philip Rivers' hot hand with over 10 points of backing. The Denver Broncos are way too shaky to be trusted with backdoor-cover protection. Can't you just see Rivers throwing a touchdown with 24 seconds left to bring the lead down to 10?

And, now that I've said it, can't you not? You stay frustrating, San Diego. 

Pick: San Diego +10.5

Washington Redskins +5.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons

Rob Carr/Getty Images

There is an overwhelming amount of drama emanating for the nation's capital right now.

Dan Graziano of ESPN.com reports that head coach Mike Shanahan "cleaned out his office" before the playoff loss to the Seahawks last year because of owner Dan Snyder's close relationship with the franchise quarterback. Once those two conspire against you, you're done, and Shanahan knew it.

But they brought him back, giving birth to the most dysfunctional season in a disastrous era for Washington. Ravenous debates about racism have only been replaced by something far more important in America—like who will be the starting quarterback?

It doesn't matter, though. This game isn't taking place in Washington. It's happening in a place that is far more hospitable right now.

Regardless of who is under center, there will be time to expose the Falcons' weak secondary against Atlanta. Some time away from the hometown heat and a feeble opponent is just what the Redskins need.

Pick: Washington Redskins +5.5

San Francisco 49ers -5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rob Carr/Getty Images

I didn't get to put it in the win column, but I was right. 

The San Francisco 49ers are still a good team.

They relied on defense and running, just like the old days of 2012, and rode out a tough victory. Their four losses to division opponents didn't prove they couldn't win the big game but rather that football is a game of inches and they had fallen just short against quality opponents.

And despite their recent four-wins-in-five-games stretch, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't quality. Not yet. 

The Bucs must run against the Niners' fast and penetrating front, keeping quarterback Mike Glennon's pocket clean so he can step into his throws. But yards will be tough to come by against San Francisco's stout front seven, meaning the two Smiths will be cut loose on the rookie signal-caller. That's the opposite of the recipe for a clean pocket. 

Pick: San Francisco -5

Arizona Cardinals -3 vs. Tennessee Titans

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

First, a moment of silence for Tyrann Mathieu's Defense Rookie of the Year campaign. It was entertaining and fun but ultimately cut short by his knee injury. 

And second, even without the biggest surprise in this year's freshman class, the Arizona Cardinals still have a dominant defense. 

Defensive lineman Calais Campbell and linebacker John Abraham have 71 quarterback hurries and 19 sacks between them. And even if Ryan Fitzpatrick can get a pass off, he still has to deal with Patrick Peterson.

But the Tennessee Titans also have to deal with an offense that, much like this writer, has found its stride. Wide receiver Michael Floyd has been putting on a show (99 receiving yards three out of the last four weeks), giving Carson Palmer the weapon he needs opposite Andre Ellington and Larry Fitzgerald. 

Pick: Arizona -3

New Orleans Saints -6 vs. St. Louis Rams

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

It seems like the perfect trap game for the New Orleans Saints.

Sandwiched between two huge matchups with the Panthers comes a road game with the easy-to-overlook St. Louis Rams, who have the capability to harass quarterbacks. 

But the Rams start Kellen Clemens at quarterback, and he must match Drew Brees throw for throw for St. Louis to have a chance. That's worth at least 10 points.

I can't trust the Rams to score somewhere in the high 20s, which they'll need to do if they're going to keep this close.

Pick: New Orleans -6

Seattle Seahawks -7 vs. New York Giants

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

New York Giants fans have taken a clear path through the five stages of grief this season. No, that's not a good thing. 

First, there was anger and denial. Fans were alternating between denying that Eli Manning had switched bodies with Mark Sanchez and being furious with the offensive line's "performance."

Then there was the bargaining. If the Giants could just beat Dallas in Week 12, then New York would be within striking distance for one of its classic late-season surges.

But the last gasp of hope was snuffed out, and a trip to the west coast put the final nail in their depression. They watched helplessly as the Chargers put it on their boys in blue, with one fan actually mentioning to me something about putting Ryan Nassib in. 

So no, I won't be taking the Giants against the not-reeling Seattle Seahawks. I assume you saw that coming and accepted it.

Pick: Seattle -7

Chicago Bears -2 vs. Cleveland Browns

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

I spend a lot of time in this slideshow wondering what the oddsmakers were thinking. Not here. They nailed this line.

On a neutral field, the Chicago Bears would probably beat the Cleveland Browns about six out of 10 times. That's how close these two teams are.

But do you really want to back the Browns? Sure, they got it done from a spread perspective last week, but Willis McGahee is their leading rusher, so that eliminates Chicago's biggest disadvantage (stopping the run). 

Plus, Joe Haden and T.J. Ward are outnumbered by Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. 

It's close, but the Bears have too much offensive firepower for any Jason Campbell-led offense. Wow. What were the odds of that statement having any importance for this season? Somewhere around 500-to-1?

Pick: Chicago +2

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills have won one game on the road. In fact, they've only won four games total. 

Why do people think this team is good? 

E.J. Manuel hasn't been shredding teams all year, and he just threw four picks. The dramatic win over the Panthers should be a distant memory. However, it seems to be all people remember about him since the Bills are mired in another year of irrelevancy. 

That's the only explanation I can find for making the Bills road favorites. Not only do the Jacksonville Jaguars get the "honor" of being home dogs, but they might have figured out how to beat bad teams. That seems important this week since, you know, the Bills are bad.

Pick: Jacksonville +1.5

New England Patriots -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

I don't know if the New England Patriots' title hopes went out the window with Rob Gronkowski's knee. They certainly took a hit though. 

And doesn't that seem like a perfect time to back Tom Brady and Bill Belichick?

What other team does the whole nobody-believes-in-us thing better than the team that launched a dynasty as a two-touchdown underdog?

And what, if anything, excited you about the Miami Dolphins? The only thing they do well is rush the passer. A very useful tool indeed, but Ryan Tannehill against a motivated Brady is worth more than 2.5 points.

Pick: New England -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings

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The news dropped that Adrian Peterson probably isn't playing this week according to Ben Goessling of ESPN.com on Twitter, and the line dropped from four to 4.5. 

My first thought: That's it?

I understand Cordarrelle Patterson gives this team some excitement, but that's not going to be nearly enough against Nick Foles and the league's leading rusher. Especially since the Vikings defense is very unlikely to aid the cause (hint: The defense ranks 30th against the pass).

Prior to last week's heroic display of prognostication, I might not have had the confidence to trust the easy one. This week? I'm counting the win and spending the winnings. This one feels lock-ish.

Pick: Philadelphia -4.5

Houston Texans +6 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Bob Levey/Getty Images

Maybe I've just laid the points too many times this week. Maybe I'm exploding with hubris from one good week and am about to be humbled.

But I like the Houston Texans this week.

They fired the coach, and the team has nothing to play for. But that also means they have nothing to lose, which is a dangerous thing for any team, especially one like the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts have struggled to do anything consistently since they beat Denver seven weeks ago, which makes you wonder if they haven't peaked already.

Pick: Houston +6

Carolina Panthers -12 vs. New York Jets

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Just like the Saints of last week, there is no need to worry about the Carolina Panthers. 

New Orleans is the second-rudest host in the league. The Saints routinely send visitors home with a loss, often in humiliating fashion.

That game said more about the Superdome and Drew Brees than it did about Carolina. The Panthers are still the team that puts up big numbers on bad teams, and the New York Jets are still a bad team despite a win over Oakland.

I know it's a lot of points. That's scary. But bask in Carolina's plus-110 point differential and hold on. Everything is going to be OK. 

Pick: Carolina -12

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 vs. Oakland Raiders

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Would you feel comfortable laying 3.5 points with the Kansas City Chiefs in Oakland? Of course you would.

The Chiefs aren't suddenly a bad team because they lost twice to Denver and once to the befuddling (and aggravating) Chargers. Those are excusable losses when you've won double-digit games. You get a pass.

But not everybody seems to feel that way. The Chiefs, even after an incredibly dominant performance last week, are favored by the same amount they were against the lowly Washington franchise. 

What have the Oakland Raiders done to earn such respect? Maybe people think Mike Singletary is still Alex Smith's coach.

I know the last statement was a reach, but lines like these make me search hard and long for what I might be missing. In this case, I'd say nothing. Don't over-think this. 

Pick: Kansas City -3.5

Green Bay Packers off vs. Dallas Cowboys

Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

Did you watch the Dallas Cowboys "play defense" on Monday night? I'd say it was as ugly and painful as Tebow at quarterback, but that would be an insult to Tim Tebow's throwing motion.

Plus, do you have any doubts that Aaron Rodgers is coming back this week? 

No, I'm not basing this on any new information. What I do know is that Rodgers is one of the most competitive guys in league and, despite his absence, the Green Bay Packers are only a half-game back in the NFC North.

Good luck keeping him off the field this week. And good luck to the Cowboys getting him off of it once he gets under center. 

Oh, and a loss would knock the Cowboys back to .500. It's almost too perfect. 

Pick: Green Bay OFF

Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Cincinnati Bengals are somehow flying under the radar.

While we're all worried about the Broncos and the Patriots in their chase for home-field advantage, the Bengals are lurking just one and two games back, respectively. It's unlikely they'll be able to grab the No. 1 seed, but a first-week bye certainly isn't out of the question.

Conversely, the Pittsburgh Steelers have shown the pride of a champion. Their aging veterans, like Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, keep fighting, giving them a shot each week.

But it won't matter. There's too big of a talent disparity to give the Steelers any love. Not when the opposing talent is motivated by a week off in the playoffs. 

Pick: Cincinnati -3

Baltimore Ravens +6 vs. Detroit Lions

Rob Carr/Getty Images

I'd love to take the Detroit Lions. They're my team. 

And they're good. When they're not busy driving railroad ties through their feet to keep them from taking the next step.

The Lions committed another three turnovers this past week. Running back Joique Bell chipped in with two fumbles in the red zone while quarterback Matthew Stafford and center Dominic Raiola accounted for the other one.

The scary part? The Lions were lucky, as they had another four fumbles that they were able to recover.

People keep telling me that you can't count on a team to turn the ball over four times. At this point, it's about all you can count on the Lions for. No way I'm laying six points with that type of uncertainty.

Pick: Baltimore +6