SJ's 2009 Stanley Cup Final Preview

Here’s our Stanley Cup Final preview, CB took care of why the Wings will win and why the Pens won’t..I handled the Why the Pens will win and why the Wings won’t.

Here we are again, the Stanley Cup Finals. The two remaining teams, Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins, met last year in a six game battle in which Detroit prevailed. New faces on both sides, and injury-depleted lineups make this for one intense match up for the Cup. The Wings played the Pens twice this year, each team winning one game.

Here are some stats from each team to sink your teeth in:

Quote:

- Detroit ranked first in the league on the power play, with a 25.5% success rate. Pittsburgh ranked 20th at 17.2%.     - Detroit’s power play ranks third in the playoffs, with a 25.7% success rate. Pittsburgh ranks seventh at 19.3%.  - Detroit ranked 25th in the league in penalty killing, with a 78.3% success rate. Pittsburgh ranked eighth, at 86.7%.  - Detroit’s penalty killing ranks 14th in the playoffs, with a 73.7% success rate. Pittsburgh ranks fifth at 83.6%.  - Darren Helm (78), Daniel Cleary (47), Niklas Kronwall (41) and Brad Stuart (41) were the Red Wings’ leading hitters through the Western Conference Final. - Brooks Orpik (77), Matt Cooke (56) and Chris Kunitz (48) were the Penguins’ leading hitters through the Eastern Conference Finals. - Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby are tied for the playoff lead with 28 points.

Well Ship, over the past few weeks that we have done this I’ve been wrong twice in my picks while you have only been wrong once. Time to even that score up.

Why the Red Wings will win the Cup…Again

Haven’t we seen this song and dance before?

Sure some of the performers may have changed (some playing with the other side), but I feel confident that the results will remain the same as before. 

If you want to strictly look at the team numbers you have to feel good if you're a Detroit fan. In the playoffs (at home) they have scored more then Pittsburgh does, they let less goals in (both at home and on the road), and they have the better powerplay record. How is Pittsburgh going to stop them?

What about a player breakdown? Sure, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are great players, but didn’t Detroit shut them down last year? And what about Marian Hossa, oh wait that’s right he plays for Detroit now doesn’t he. Sure the Pens may have added Bill Guerin (a guy I like and respect), but lets face it he is no Hossa. 

Okay, so let's forget about the forwards and look at the goalies, the most important part of any team. Marc-Andre Fleury has a Sv% of .912 and a GAA of 2.67. That’s not that bad for you Pittsburgh fans but how is Osgood doing? Oh, looks like he has a Sv% of .921 and a GAA of 2.14. If you were a betting person who would you put your money on?

Even behind the bench, you gotta give the coaching advantage to the guy who has already beat the Pens in the finals before. This will be Dan Bylsma's first crack with the Pens at the Red Wings; with Michel Therrien out, Bylsma has no previous experience to draw from. 

Injuries aside, you have to figure a veteran team like Detroit knows how to perform to their top level even with some key players out. And it’s because of this and the fact that they have downed the Pens before that I like Detroit in this match up.

Why the Penguins will win the Cup

The Penguins are out for revenge from not only the Red Wings for beating them in the finals last year, but from Marian Hossa for this quote, explaining why he chose to sign with Detroit rather than re-sign with Pittsburgh: “When I compared the two teams, I felt like I would have a better chance to win the Cup in Detroit.”

The Penguins had arguably a tougher path to the Finals than the Wings. Prevailing in six games against the rival Philadelphia Flyers, then facing another rival and superstar Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals before disposing them in seven games, and finally a previous Conn Smythe winner Cam Ward and the experienced Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Finals, in which the Penguins swept, four games to none.

The Penguins have won five straight games, dating back to the Washington series and eight of their last nine games in the playoffs. The Pens have the momentum and very few injuries to report. Sergei Gonchar suffered a knee injury in game three of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, but returned for game five and has played every game since.

The Penguins were not ready last season, being shut out in both game one and game two of the Stanley Cup Final in Detroit, I would be hard pressed to believe that it will happen again.

Why the Penguins WON’T Win

Penguins fans may be living in a delusional world right now after their sweep of Carolina. Don’t let that sweep fool you Pens, the Red Wings aren’t a team that needs to rely on one guy (in Carolina’ case, Eric Staal) to put up points. You look up and down at the Detroit lineup and you gotta feel good if your a Wings fan; they got depth.

Also just because you beat Washington doesn’t mean you’ll take Detroit. Let’s face it you guys played Washington’s backup goalie most of the series, and it went to a game 7. What do you thinks going to happen when you face a team with a proven playoff star goalie and a team that has scoring options.

What going to happen if Detroit manages to get this Penguins team in the hole by 2 games? Do they have what it takes to step up and come from behind, or will the memories from last season put them in a funk leading to a sweep of this series?

There are too many “what ifs…” with this Penguin team, and until they prove me wrong I gotta believe that Detroit is going to win this series.

Why Detroit WON’T Win

The Biggest Problem with Detroit currently is injuries. Superstars Pavel Datsyuk and Nick Lidstrom have both missed games this playoff season and there is only a 2 day turn around until the Finals begin. Back to back games in Detroit also is not ideal for a banged up team. Kris Draper, Jonathan Ericsson and others have also missed time throughout these playoffs.

Another reason the Wings won’t win is their Penalty Kill, a dismal 73.7% Penalty Kills ranks 14th out of the 16 teams that qualified for the playoffs. The Pens aren’t exactly lighting it up on the Power Play (19.3%, 7th in the playoffs) but with the likes of Sergei Gonchar, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin patrolling the PP, its a lethal combination for the Wings.

Ship's Pick: Pittsburgh in 6

CB’s Pick: Detroit in 6

by CB & ShipHockey

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