Predicting the Top 10 Teams in the AP Poll One Month from Now
The Associated Press top 10 as of today, Nov. 21, does not differ much from the preseason top 10. However, the rankings may look different a month from now, with ranked teams likely to meet each other in a flurry of early-season tournaments over the next few weeks.
In predicting how the top 10 will look when the Associated Press releases its Top 25 on Dec. 23, we considered a team's current ranking, how well it is playing and its schedule over the next month.
Four top-10 teams were still undefeated as of Dec. 23 last season, so, presumably, several will still be unbeaten a month from now.
Teams typically hold their ranking position unless they lose. However, impressive victories at this stage can move a team up quickly.
10. Missouri
1 of 10
Syracuse, Michigan, Wichita State, Gonzaga and Wisconsin are all more logical choices than Missouri to hold the No. 10 spot on Dec. 23.
Predicting the Tigers will be in the top 10 by then is based more on a hunch than logic. After all, the Tigers are not even in the Top 25 at the moment, and advancing all the way to the top 10 in a month's time, admittedly, is a long shot.
Here's the argument:
- The addition of Jordan Clarkson, a transfer from Tulsa, has provided much of the offense lost with the departure of four starters from last season's squad. Jabari Brown seems ready to assume much of the offensive burden as well.
- Typically, only a half-dozen or so teams are still unbeaten by the time Christmas rolls around, and those remaining undefeated teams are usually ranked in the top 10 if they are from major conferences. We expect the Tigers to be one of the handful of unbeaten teams on Dec. 23, which does not guarantee them a spot in the top 10 but gives them a chance. Missouri's schedule over the next month is far less challenging than that of other contenders for the last spot in the top 10.
- Missouri has played much better at home than on the road under coach Frank Haith, who will return from his five-game suspension on Nov. 28. The Tigers' only games away from home now until Christmas are neural-court games against Northwestern, Nevada and Illinois, games the Tigers are capable of winning.
On Dec. 7, Missouri plays at home against UCLA, a good bet to be ranked at that time. A win in that game, especially if it is decisive, will get the Tigers into the Top 25 and earn them some attention. Two weeks after that, the Tigers could advance into the top 10 if they stay unbeaten and look impressive in the process.
Granted, a lot of things have to fall into place for Missouri just to come close to a top-10 ranking by Dec. 23. Consider this choice a thought-provoker.
9. Kentucky
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The early take on this season's freshman-laden Kentucky squad is that it will be more consistent than last season's erratic bunch but not as solid as the national-championship team of two years ago.
Ranked No. 1 in preseason, the Wildcats dropped only three spots to No. 4 with the close loss to Michigan State. We expect them to drop another game before Christmas, either against unpredictable Baylor in a Dec. 6 game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, or against North Carolina in a Dec. 14 game in Chapel Hill.
Too inconsistent to avoid bad losses, Baylor has the talent to handle Kentucky on a given day. The Bears beat Kentucky in Lexington last season, albeit against a much different Kentucky team.
A bigger challenge may come against North Carolina on the Tar Heels' home court, especially if P.J. Hairston and/or Leslie McDonald is/are back with North Carolina by then.
The post game of freshman Julius Randle and the perimeter game of freshman James Young should keep Kentucky in every game. But this young Kentucky team still seems capable of subpar performances on the road, and another loss before Christmas is not out of the question. Only the Wildcats' preseason acclaim will keep them in the top 10 on Dec. 23.
8. Arizona
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With the addition of freshman Aaron Gordon in the frontcourt and Duquesne transfer T.J. McConnell at point guard, Arizona has the makings of a Final Four team.
Its 69-60 road victory over San Diego State indicates the Wildcats are capable of winning in a hostile setting. However, the unranked Aztecs made it a close game in the final two minutes, suggesting Arizona may be vulnerable in a pair of upcoming high-profile games away from home.
Arizona is likely to play Duke in the championship game of the NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 29. A more difficult challenge awaits on Dec. 14 when the Wildcats play Michigan in Ann Arbor, Mich., with Mitch McGary back in the Wolverines' lineup.
Arizona is likely to lose at least one of those games. Its preseason reputation should be enough to keep it in the top 10, however, at No. 8.
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7. Duke
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Do-everything freshman Jabari Parker demonstrated in his 27-point, nine-rebound game in the loss to Kansas that he can be a star against elite competition. He is a polished, strong 6'8" player who can play three positions, is hitting 65 percent of his three-point shots and can lead the break if he has to.
The addition of Rodney Hood, a transfer from Mississippi State, provides some needed defensive toughness and a second scorer.
The Blue Devils still lack a reliable inside scorer, and that could be an issue with the difficult schedule they face over the next few weeks. A likely game against Arizona in the finals of the NIT Season Tip-Off in New York on Nov. 29 is followed by games against Michigan on Dec. 3 and UCLA on Dec. 19.
Although the Michigan game is at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the UCLA game is in New York, the Blue Devils will be hard-pressed to win all three.
We are guessing Duke will lose one of those for its second loss. Associated Press poll voters will recognize the difficulty of Duke's schedule and keep it ranked inside the top 10 at No. 7.
6. Iowa State
5 of 10
Iowa State has two impressive wins: a 77-70 home victory over Michigan in Mitch McGary's first game back for the Wolverines and a 90-88 victory over underrated BYU on the Cougars' home court.
Now ranked in the Top 25 at No. 21, the Cyclones should move up considerably if they knock off Northern Iowa and Iowa in their most challenging contests remaining before Christmas.
Beating Northern Iowa in Des Moines on Dec. 7 won't be easy, but the Panthers have already lost two games and may not be as good as anticipated.
The Hawkeyes may be ranked by the time they face Iowa State on Dec. 13. That game will be played in Ames, Iowa, on the same court where the Cyclones upset Michigan.
Melvin Ejim's earlier-than-expected return from an October knee injury has given the Cyclones a chance to enter the top 10 before the end of 2013. The original prognosis was that he would not return to action until December, but he was back for the Michigan game and collected 22 points and nine rebounds in 28 minutes in that victory.
We expect the Cyclones to be unbeaten by Dec. 23. That, victories over Michigan and Iowa and the presence of a star like Ejim could lift Iowa State as high as No. 6 in the rankings by Christmas.
5. Kansas
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Kansas is as talented and athletic as any team in the country. Its 94-83 victory over Duke on a neutral court in Chicago showed what the Jayhawks are capable of doing.
The Jayhawks' six standout freshmen, led by Andrew Wiggins, give them the capability of beating any team on any court. But that inexperience and the lack of a tough inside presence mean the Jayhawks are susceptible to the occasional off night. They rely on their athleticism, which leaves them prone to inconsistency early in the season.
That might not be an issue if the Jayhawks were facing overmatched teams for the next month, but that's not the case. Kansas may face Iowa, Xavier or Tennessee in the Bahamas on Nov. 30, and the Jayhawks then play road games against Colorado on Dec. 7 and Florida on Dec. 10.
Kansas is capable of winning all of those games, but we expect it to slip up somewhere along the line. The game against Florida, which comes three days after the road game thousands of miles away in Colorado, is the one most likely to produce a Kansas defeat.
With just one loss, the Jayhawks should remain in the top 10, probably around the No. 5 spot.
4. Ohio State
7 of 10
Ohio State's impressive road victory over Marquette on Nov. 16 should keep the Buckeyes near the top of the polls until they lose. And, there is no reason to expect them to lose before Christmas.
The Buckeyes lost a major offensive weapon when all-conference forward Deshaun Thomas ran out of college eligibility and turned pro. But their defense seems to be as good as ever, and that is what makes Ohio State a top-10 team.
Ohio State not only beat Marquette, which was ranked No. 17 in the preseason Associated Press poll, but the Buckeyes did it in decisive fashion on the Golden Eagles' home court, where Marquette had won 27 straight games.
In its 52-35 victory, Ohio State limited Marquette to 16 points in the second half and held the Golden Eagles to 18.9 percent shooting from the field for the game. Although Marquette is far from an offensive juggernaut, that is still a remarkable defensive accomplishment.
Point guard Aaron Craft epitomizes the Buckeyes' defensive mindset, which should be enough to keep the Buckeyes unbeaten for a while. The Buckeyes' next seven games are at home against unranked foes before they face unranked Notre Dame in New York on Dec. 21.
Ohio State should have no trouble winning all of those games. The absence of a big-time opponent in that stretch will prevent the Buckeyes from advancing too far in the polls. But, being unbeaten should allow them to move up from their current No. 8 spot as a few teams above them suffer losses.
3. Oklahoma State
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No team has been more impressive in the first two weeks of the season than Oklahoma State. The Cowboys showed they are Final Four material with their dismantling of No. 11 Memphis in a game that was not as close as the 101-80 final score suggests.
Oklahoma State is averaging 102 points per game, which, surprisingly, is only third best in the country as of Nov. 21. That offensive firepower will impress Associated Press poll voters, but not as much as the presence of sophomore guard Marcus Smart. He scored no more than 16 points in the Cowboys' first three blowout wins against mediocre competition, then had a career-high 39 points when Oklahoma State faced its first threatening foe in Memphis.
Having a potential national player of the year on the squad helps garner votes in the polls.
The Cowboys may have to play Memphis again in Kissimmee, Fla., in the championship game of the Old Spice Classic on Dec. 1. The Tigers will provide a bigger challenge in that game than they did on the Cowboys' home court. However, Oklahoma State should survive that test as well. The Cowboys are not a one-man team, with senior guard Markel Brown teaming with Smart to form one of the nation's best backcourts.
Being undefeated with two wins over Memphis as well as having Smart on their team should lift the Cowboys to the No. 3 spot by Christmas.
2. Louisville
9 of 10
As the defending national champion, Louisville has earned the status needed to stay near the top of the Associated Press poll as long as it keeps winning.
A potential road block was removed when North Carolina announced that neither P.J. Hairston nor Leslie McDonald would be with the Tar Heels if the teams should meet in the finals of the Hall of Fame Tip Off Classic in Uncasville, Conn., on Nov. 25.
That leaves clear sailing for the Cardinals until they face Kentucky on Dec. 28 in Lexington, Ky. However, that game comes after the Dec. 23 polls are released a month from now.
Louisville has not been challenged so far, winning all four games by at least 22 points, albeit against overmatched competition.
The Cardinals are now at full strength, with Luke Hancock, the star of last season's NCAA championship game, back from an Achilles injury, and Chane Behanan back from a suspension for violating an unspecified school policy.
Even Kevin Ware is back on the court after recovering from the gruesome broken leg he suffered in last season's NCAA tournament.
Russ Smith, the team's star, is out to prove he is NBA material. He has battled inconsistency during his career because of his questionable shot selection. His only subpar game so far this season came against Cornell, when he was just 3-for-8 from the field and scored 10 points. But, he made two of his first three shots in that game and had seven points in the first 4:15 when the Cardinal built a 16-2 lead.
1. Michigan State
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Michigan State has a solid hold on the No. 1 spot in the Associated Press poll at the moment, and the Spartans probably will retain that position if they remain unbeaten.
The Spartans' biggest obstacles between now and the Dec. 23 poll are a home game against North Carolina on Dec. 4 and a road game against Texas on Dec. 21.
If North Carolina has P.J. Hairston and Leslie McDonald back by the time it faces Michigan State, the Tar Heels would have enough talent to upset Michigan State. However, with the game being in East Lansing, Mich., Michigan State should win regardless of the lineup Roy Williams puts on the floor.
Texas is 4-0, but the Longhorns have played no one of significance yet, and Michigan State seems to have too much experience and toughness to lose to the Longhorns, even in Austin, Texas.
The Spartans are built for consistency. They have talent and experience in the backcourt with Keith Appling and Gary Harris, and Adreian Payne gives them muscle in the paint. Their consistent defense, physical style and maturity should prevent the kind of letdowns that can affect other teams.
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