Would the Padres Trade Adrian Gonzalez?

Jon Heyman has a feature piece on SI.com today where he wrote that if the Padres decided to trade Adrian Gonzalez, they’d get an even bigger return than if they traded Jake Peavy.

Gonzalez has two years left on his contract after 2009 before he becomes a free agent, and is only due $10.25 million total for 2010 and 2011, making him much cheaper for an acquiring team than Peavy.

With the Padres recently carrying a 10-game win streak, that has left them only four games back of the Cardinals in the wild-card, it seems unlikely they would trade their best position player before the August 1 trade deadline.

If the Padres are willing to trade Gonzalez, the Giants should consider making an offer. 

Gonzalez is a much better hitter than people realize. In his three full seasons as a Padre, Gonzalez has a home OPS of .787 and a road OPS of .927. That tells you just how hard it is to hit in Petco Park, and it strongly suggests that Gonzalez’s numbers will jump after a trade. Right now, the 27-year-old Gonzalez is clearly one of the best hitters in baseball.

I can’t see the Padres wanting Matt Cain for Gonzalez. Cain doesn’t have any more time before free agency than Gonzalez does, and I can’t see the Giants giving up much more than Cain to get him.

A deal I could see happening is Gonzalez for Jonathan Sanchez, Osiris Matos and Tim Alderson, particularly if the Padres are still intent on trading Peavy. Alderson, a former first round pick, is currently considered “untouchable”, but if the Giants traded him, they would still have Madison Bumgarner, their top minor league pitching prospect.  It would be a steep price for the Giants to pay, but Gonzalez would solve one of the Giants’ glaring needs, and that offer might be enough for the Padres to bite.

With Pablo Sandoval playing better defensively at third base than anyone expected, the big hole for the Giants is still across the infield at first. There would not be a better player right now to fill that hole than Gonzalez.

On the other hand, teams generally do not like to make block-buster trades with teams in their own division. Certainly, the trade outlined above would contain much more risk for the Padres. With Gonzalez, the Giants would have a pretty good idea what they would be getting.