NFL Week 11 Game Predictions
There are several games with playoff implications this week with the wild-card races in both the AFC and the NFC wide-open. Four teams in the AFC are within a game of the sixth seed, which includes the San Diego Chargers (4-5), New York Jets (5-4), Cleveland Browns (4-5) and Baltimore Ravens (4-5).
In the NFC, there are six teams within a game-and-a-half of a wild-card spot, including the San Francisco 49ers (6-3), Carolina Panthers (6-3), Chicago Bears (5-4), Green Bay Packers (5-4), Arizona Cardinals (5-4) and the Philadelphia Eagles (5-5).
All of those teams are in action on Sunday, and the playoff pictures could seriously change. Here's a look at what to expect in this huge week in the NFL season.
Jets (5-4) @ Bills (3-7)
1 of 14
The Pick: Jets def. Bills 31-24
The Jets don't have an explosive offense, but the unit has played well enough when they've had to this season.
Rookie quarterback Geno Smith has done an OK job spreading the ball around to multiple targets this season, even while only completing 58 percent of his passes. This week, Jeremy Kerley is out, but Santonio Holmes has been cleared for action, according to CBSSports.com.
After a promising start, the Buffalo Bills are in a relative state of disarray right now. While the two-headed monster of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller has been a highlight for Buffalo this year, the Jets are the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL this season, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry this year.
Meanwhile, a steady dose of Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory should be expected from the Jets offense. The Bills rank 29th in the league against the run, and the Jets like to set up the pass with the run as their rookie quarterback gains experience.
In a game that figures to be close just because of the likely tempo of the game, this game could easily come down to a play on special teams. On top of that, whoever wins the turnover battle could win this one late.
Browns (4-5) @ Bengals (6-4)
2 of 14
The Pick: Bengals def. Browns 24-20
Cincinnati has been inconsistent all year long, but its offense has shown flashes of brilliance at times this season.
Superstar wide receiver A.J. Green already has eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving this year on 65 catches. Additionally, Giovani Bernard has emerged as a playmaker out of the backfield when the team can find ways to get the ball in his hands.
Cleveland is the seventh-ranked passing defense in the league, allowing only 234.3 yards per game through the air, according to ESPN, so that should limit the Bengals' aerial attack.
Surprisingly sitting at 4-5 and only a game-and-a-half out of first place, the Browns have a lot to play for.
Quarterback Jason Campbell has performed well in the games he's played this year and generally takes care of the football. However, the Browns' running game hasn't been able to get off the ground this season. The combination of Willis McGahee and Chris Ogbonnaya has been unable to produce enough to complement the Browns' passing game.
The Bengals come out of the gate quickly this week after a tough loss to the Ravens last week and get their offense going early. While the Browns can jump right into the divisional race with a win, the Bengals know that if they want to compete in the AFC, this is the type of game they have to win.
Ravens (4-5) @ Bears (5-4)
3 of 14
The Pick: Bears def. Ravens 34-28
After a crushing 21-19 loss to the division-rival Lions last week, the Bears find themselves in a desperate position. On the other side of the coin is the Ravens who pulled out a big win over the Bengals last week and are now a game-and-a-half out of the AFC North.
Regardless of their defensive woes this season, the Bears offense has rolled all season long, even with backup quarterback Josh McCown, who will start Sunday for injured Jay Cutler, under center.
In his one full game against the rival Packers, McCown went 22-of-41 for 272 yards and two touchdowns and zero interceptions, according to NFL.com. He takes care of the ball and has plenty of weapons to spread the ball around to. That bodes well for the Bears against the Ravens who rank in the bottom half of the league in passing defense.
For the Ravens, Ray Rice has yet to get going. Ravens fans and fantasy owners alike have to be frustrated with his lack of production this season. Rice has averaged an abysmal 2.5 yards per carry and has only accumulated 289 yards on the ground all year, according to Rotoworld.
The Bears rushing defense is ranked 27 in the NFL so Rice figures to have a better day than usual, but something has been off about his game this season.
The Bears just have more weapons on offense this season and are playing at home, which gives them a slight advantage in a game with serious playoff implications for both teams.
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Lions (6-3) @ Steelers (3-6)
4 of 14
The Pick: Lions def. Steelers 31-20
Coming off an emotional statement win in Chicago, the first such win since 2007, the Detroit Lions figure to come out of the gates firing. After all, they do have Calvin Johnson.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are playing better as of late with wide receivers Antonio Brown and Jerricho Cotchery emerging as legitimate targets for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh has also produced on the ground lately with rookie Le'Veon Bell producing at a high level both through the air and on the ground. Despite the Steelers' production on the offensive side of the ball, the Lions' front four will hope to get to Roethlisberger early and often.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Lions have found much more balance this year with the addition of Reggie Bush who has 623 rushing yards and 343 receiving yards this season. Second-string back Joique Bell has also been a dependable power runner in the red zone for Detroit this season.
Pittsburgh will likely be playing catch up for most of the game, and Matthew Stafford and Co. don't lose many shootouts.
Raiders (3-6) @ Texans (2-7)
5 of 14
The Pick: Texans def. Raiders 26-23
This season hasn't exactly gone how the Houston Texans had hoped it would.
Matt Schaub played horribly before being injured and replaced, and star running back Arian Foster is out for the season after getting back surgery last week. Houston's defense has been a bright spot at points this season, but their offense hasn't done them any favors. The Oakland Raiders on the other hand, have been inconsistent all year long.
An already questionable passer, Raiders starter Terrelle Pryor faces a tough test against the Texans who have the top passing defense in the entire league. If he's placed under any duress, which he likely will be, Pryor is likely to turn the ball over to a resourceful Houston defense.
On offense, Case Keenum has been impressive given the circumstances. He's completed 56 percent of his passes for 822 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, according to ESPN. His top target, Andre Johnson, is having another great season, pulling in 62 catches for 850 yards and five touchdowns.
It will be tough for Houston to get the ground game going with banged-up second-string Ben Tate currently the starter, especially since Oakland is ranked seventh in the league in rushing defense.
Playing in front of their home crowd, the Texans get a slight edge in this matchup which might come down to which team has the last possession.
Cardinals (5-4) @ Jaguars (1-8)
6 of 14
The Pick: Cardinals def. Jaguars 28-17
The Jaguars showed last week that they can in fact win a game. However, with Cecil Shorts III as the only receiving option for Jacksonville and Maurice Jones-Drew having no running lanes due to an abysmal offensive line, not many points are going to be put on the board. Arizona has put a nice little run together lately to put the Cardinals right in the thick of the playoff race.
Arizona's offense has been helped by the emergence of Andre Ellington who has been electric running and receiving the ball. A good complementary back to a now-healthy Rashard Mendenhall, Ellington has helped Arizona to deploy a more balanced attack on offense.
Jacksonville is actually the 10th-ranked passing defense in the league, but the fact that they are the worst team in the league at stopping the run (allowing 4.6 yards per carry, according to ESPN) points to the passing game opening up if Arizona can establish the ground game early.
To give themselves a chance, the Jaguars will have to force turnovers early. If that doesn't happen, it could be a long day for Jacksonville as Arizona figures to keep their hot streak going.
Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (5-5)
7 of 14
The Pick: Eagles def. Redskins 31-21
The injury to Michael Vick may have been a blessing in disguise for the Eagles as backup Nick Foles has been great this season. Foles has completed 63 percent of his passes for 1,256 yards, 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The quarterback out of the University of Arizona is one of three players in NFL history to start a season by throwing 16 touchdowns or more before throwing an interception.
The Eagles' improved passing game figures to fare well against a Washington secondary that is giving up 275 yards per game. The only question is whether the Redskins offense can keep up with the Eagles who are likely to put up a lot of points on the board.
Behind an improved Robert Griffin III, the Washington offense has been much-improved as of late, it just can't seem to put a complete game together.
Should the Redskins be able to establish the running game with second-year running back Alfred Morris, they have a chance to outscore Philadelphia. The Eagles average giving up 110.5 yards per game on the ground, according to ESPN http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/defense, so the establishment of the running game for Washington isn't out of the question.
As shocking as it sounds, a win this week could push the Eagles into first place in the NFC East. That grouped with an extremely productive passing game gives Philadelphia another big win.
Falcons (2-7) @ Buccaneers (1-8)
8 of 14
The Pick: Falcons def. Buccaneers 23-14
Both of these teams have underachieved mightily this year, and a lot of that has to do with injuries to key players. Atlanta lost Julio Jones for the season, Steven Jackson for several weeks and has been without Roddy White on several occasions. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, lost Doug Martin for the season, which gave them even fewer weapons on offense.
Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has shown flashes this season and has made Vincent Jackson his top target. However, with Martin's replacement in the backfield, Mike James, being carted off the field last week, Tampa Bay doesn't have many viable options at running back.
Glennon will likely have to drop back between 40 and 50 times on Sunday, and if he can hit on some deep plays against the league's 22nd-ranked pass defense, he will give Tampa Bay a chance to win.
Meanwhile, the Falcons will look to avoid yet another disappointing loss. Atlanta, which hasn't been able to find an identity all year on offense, will have to lean on Roddy White, who returned last week, and receiver Harry Douglas to carry the receiving workload. The porous Tampa Bay secondary should allow the Atlanta offense to get things going early and often.
Chargers (4-5) @ Dolphins (4-5)
9 of 14
The Pick: Chargers def. Dolphins 27-17
Philip Rivers has had a resurgent year for the Chargers this season, throwing for 2,691 yards and 18 touchdowns. While the San Diego offense has been surprising this year, the defense hasn't been able to carry its weight in the crunch time of most games. Miami, on the other hand, is dealing with numerous off-field issues that have clearly affected its play on the field.
Miami, which started 3-0, is now reeling after losing five of its last six games. Even playing at home, Miami's lack of offensive firepower is a problem in this game.
After losing two offensive linemen in recent weeks, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will have far less time to throw the ball than he's used to. Underachieving playmakers such as Mike Wallace need to make big plays for Miami to pull out what figures to be a back-and-forth battle.
San Diego has far more weapons on offense, including tight end Antonio Gates, wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Danny Woodhead.
The Dolphins, which are ranked 15th in passing defense, according to ESPN, will have a tough time containing the speed the Chargers deploy on offense.
It was clear in their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week that the Dolphins' off-field issues involving Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin are affecting them. The Dolphins season seems primed to continue its downward spiral, as the Chargers look to remain in the wide-open AFC wild-card race.
Packers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6)
10 of 14
The Pick: Giants def. Packers 27-20
Unbelievably, if the Giants win this week, it's possible that they could be within a half-game of the NFC East lead. Meanwhile, an injury-depleted Packers squad is desperate for a win to avoid dropping to 5-5 on the season.
After starting 0-6, New York now has won three straight games, including a 24-20 win over the Raiders last Sunday.
It almost seems like head coach Tom Coughlin likes putting himself on the hot seat, only to lead his team on a miracle run to the playoffs. This team isn't nearly as talented as Coughlin's past teams that have made similar runs, but in a weak NFC East, this team is good enough to make things interesting.
The Packers, behind former University of Wisconsin quarterback Scott Tolzien, will have to get the stops on defense that they couldn't get last week against the Eagles.
Their defense couldn't seem to get off the field against a red-hot Philadelphia squad, but they will need to do that this week to take pressure off a young and inexperienced Tolzien. Unfortunately for the Packers, if this game is close late, Tolzien's inexperience could doom the Packers.
Vikings (2-7) @ Seahawks (9-1)
11 of 14
The Pick: Seahawks def. Vikings 38-17
Seattle, the top team in the NFC as of right now, has struggled the past couple of weeks while still picking up wins over the St. Louis Rams and Buccaneers before dominating the Atlanta Falcons 33-10 last weekend.
Playing at home, where the Seahawks are extremely difficult to beat, will be a huge plus as they try to improve to 10-1. The Vikings have had a down year after making the playoffs last year with a 10-6 record. Minnesota has lost three games by less than four points, so its 2-7 record is somewhat deceiving.
A rookie phenom from a year ago, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson picked up where he left off and he figures to keep that going when the Vikings visit on Sunday. The Vikings defense is 29th in the league in passing defense, according to ESPN, which Wilson will be able to expose.
If the Vikings can muster up anything through the air, then their offense has a chance of putting some points up on the board. However with embattled quarterback Christian Ponder facing the No. 2-ranked Seattle passing defense, which gives up just 178 yards per game through the air, it's unlikely that Minnesota will be able to do much other than hand the ball to Adrian Peterson and watch him run.
49ers (6-3) @ Saints (7-2)
12 of 14
The Pick: Saints def. 49ers 30-24
Perhaps the most complete team in the NFC, the New Orleans Saints are clearly a far better team with coach Sean Payton at the helm. The offensive guru has his team firing on all cylinders on offense, averaging just under 423 yards per game, according to ESPN. The 49ers, sitting at 6-3, have been inconsistent all season.
A prime reason for San Francisco's inconsistency has been the rocky play of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers signal-caller has thrown for only nine touchdowns to go along with six interceptions and a passer rating of 83.1.
While this game should be a shootout, Kaepernick hasn't played well enough this season to be able to win a game of this nature, especially since the Saints defense has been much-improved this season, allowing the third-least yards through the air in the league.
Drew Brees is leading another prolific Saints offense this season but will face a tough test against the 49ers defense this week who rank seventh against the pass, according to ESPN. This game, which could have serious NFC playoff implications, should be close late, and that plays into the hands of New Orleans.
Chiefs (9-0) @ Broncos (8-1)
13 of 14
The Pick: Broncos def. Chiefs 24-17
Kansas City has been extremely impressive on offense this season; they haven't allowed more than 17 points in any game all season long. Clearly, that's a huge reason for the Chiefs' surprising 9-0 start. Peyton Manning is leading the most prolific offense in the NFL, which makes this game extremely interesting. It will be strength against strength and weakness against weakness.
Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense: While the Chiefs defense hasn't allowed over 17 points in a single game all season long, that's likely to change this week. Denver is averaging 41.2 points per game, according to ESPN, so if Kansas City was able to hold them under 17 points, it would make its defense seem even stronger than it already does.
Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense: The main concern for Kansas City in this game is that it may not be able to keep up with the Broncos offense.
It isn't a knock against quarterback Alex Smith, but the Chiefs offense isn't built to come from behind, it's built to score just enough points to win. That has been good enough this season, but Kansas City hasn't yet had to try to keep up with an offense like the Broncos this season.
Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3)
14 of 14
The Pick: Panthers def. Patriots 24-17
After a rocky start, the Panthers have won five games in a row and are starting to look like an elite team defensively. With the playmaking ability of quarterback Cam Newton, that makes Carolina a very dangerous team down the stretch. Even without his usual weapons, Tom Brady has the New England Patriots sitting atop the AFC East once again.
With limited weapons on offense, even with the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are going to have a difficult time getting things going against the Panthers defense who is fourth in passing defense and second in rushing defense, according to ESPN.
Brady will still find a way to put some points on the board, but if New England can't show balance on offense, it's unlikely it'll be able to score enough to win.
Carolina's offense has been inconsistent this season, but the return of Jonathan Stewart provides a huge boost. Newton seems like he's either been phenomenal or abysmal in games this year, so the version of Newton that decides to show up might help decide this game.
As long as the team can force a turnover or two, the Panthers defense should continue to roll. As long as Carolina does enough on offense and takes care of the football, it will put even more pressure on the Saints for the lead in the NFC South.
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