Jacoby Ellsbury Rumors: Updating Every Suitor's Chances of Landing Outfielder
Jacoby Ellsbury is an All-Star, a two-time World Series champion and a former runner-up in the American League MVP race. By winter's end, with the help of Scott Boras' skilled negotiating, he'll get to add "filthy rich man" to that list.
Among 2014 MLB free agents, only Robinson Cano can expect a larger contract than the 30-year-old center fielder. Ellsbury has about $21 million in career earnings, a figure that interested teams must offer to pay annually in order to get his attention.
Not every championship contender is a logical landing spot. The small-market Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates, for example, seldom ink top free agents to long-term deals. The San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals could afford Ellsbury, though they seem more motivated to pursue starting pitchers and shortstops, respectively.
Even so, it would be naive to completely rule out those clubs or any others. We're setting the chances at 3 percent that a mystery team not listed in the following slides surprisingly signs Ellsbury.
Based on organizational depth, public comments and insider rumors, here are approximate likelihoods for each of his most realistic suitors.
*All stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
New York Mets: 1 Percent
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Scott Boras and Jacoby Ellsbury have been seeking the largest deal possible in terms of both length and average annual value. Barring a sudden change of heart, that places them out of reach of the New York Mets.
General manager Sandy Alderson tells David Lennon of Newsday that he won't commit more than $100 million to any player.
An anonymous GM foresees Ellsbury cracking nine figures this winter, according to Peter Gammons. ESPN Insider Buster Olney reports that Boras was eyeing $130 million in contract extension negotiations with the Boston Red Sox two years ago (subscription required). Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Ellsbury will ultimately receive seven years and $150 million guaranteed.
You get the idea.
Boston Red Sox: 3 Percent
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Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe ran down Ben Cherington at the GM meetings and learned that he has held preliminary contract discussions with Jacoby Ellsbury.
However, Abraham's sources suggest that retaining first baseman Mike Napoli is the top priority.
Realize that the Boston Red Sox can assemble a competitive outfield without spending a dime in free agency by promoting the promising Jackie Bradley Jr. If they did feel compelled to go outside the organization, shifting longtime center fielder Shane Victorino back to his natural position would allow them to pursue Carlos Beltran or another veteran corner guy.
"It's time to say goodbye," Tim Britton of The Providence Journal explains.
Chicago Cubs: 3 Percent
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Chicago Now's Tom Loxas tells us that Jacoby Ellsbury's name continues to come up as a free-agent target for the Chicago Cubs.
Yes, those same Cubs that could trade away their top starting pitcher, according to ESPN Insider Buster Olney. Those same Cubs that lead the National League in losses this decade, and in that span, have employed four managers.
Immediate competitiveness is a pipe dream, but Loxas thinks Ellsbury's high on-base percentage, agility, left-handedness and leadership satisfy a lot of the team's long-term needs.
Publicly, however, team president Theo Epstein insists that now isn't their time to gamble on pricey veterans, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times: "We’re realistic about where we are and the need to get better. But we’re also realistic about where we are and about where the market is likely to go."
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New York Yankees: 5 Percent
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Scratch the $189 million plan—the New York Yankees are going to pursue the brightest stars on the market despite their substantial pre-existing financial commitments.
Jacoby Ellsbury is an attractive, attainable piece, but one that doesn't quite fit their puzzle. He and Brett Gardner are near-identical players—age 30, leadoff-man experience, elite base-stealer, plus defender in center—and the Yankees haven't expressed any interest in trading the latter.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports describes Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Beltran as "targets 1 and 1A," while Ellsbury is "a hair behind." Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York believes that they'll be bidding hard against the Los Angeles Dodgers for the rights to sign Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. A rough year from CC Sabathia and the retirement of Hiroki Kuroda leave New York's rotation in need of legitimate reinforcements.
Bizarre as it sounds, Ellsbury is merely a fall-back option for the Yankees.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 Percent
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Los Angeles Dodgers leadoff men were actually very effective in 2013, combining for a .287/.343/.419 batting line with one of the best contact rates on the club.
Keep in mind, however, that those numbers were bloated by Yasiel Puig's dominance in the No. 1 spot (1.026 OPS in 28 games). The NL Rookie of the Year runner-up will certainly bat lower in the lineup next summer to serve as a run producer.
Primary leadoff man Carl Crawford has averaged fewer than 400 plate appearances per year since 2011, and he's not becoming any more durable at age 33. The next-best option was Mark Ellis, but he has since entered free agency.
Considering the Dodgers' lofty expectations, uncertainty atop the batting order and near-limitless resources, it wouldn't be shocking to see them pursue Jacoby Ellsbury.
The question is whether there's room for Ellsbury in the outfield.
Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times reports that they've been listening to offers for Puig, Crawford, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, but his source describes those conversations as "preliminary." General manager Ned Colletti implied that serious trade talks won't take place until those veterans are healthy, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com—namely Kemp, who has undergone ankle and shoulder surgeries this year.
Barring a Prince Fielder-like free-agent experience (didn't sign with new team until February), it's looking as if Ellsbury will get his money before the Dodgers unload enough of theirs.
Texas Rangers: 13 Percent
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The Texas Rangers will need to get creative to attractive Jacoby Ellsbury.
For one, as Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reported last month, the 2014 payroll is projected to be "a little below" the record level that it reached the previous summer. That means the front office will likely try to back-load any long-term contracts.
Another potential issue is Leonys Martin. He doesn't provide quite as much overall value as Ellsbury, but Martin is one of the few players in the majors who boasts superior all-around defensive skills in center field. It's unclear whether Ellsbury would choose to sign with a team knowing that he would be stationed in left.
With that said, there's reason to believe that the Rangers are plotting some sort of major free-agent signing.
Fox Sports insider Ken Rosenthal has learned that Elvis Andrus or Ian Kinsler—and their substantial contracts—could get dealt to open up an everyday spot for Jurickson Profar in the middle infield.
We also know that the club won't allocate much spending money toward the bullpen, with general manager Jon Daniels admitting, "We have some other areas that are a higher priority for us to address," according to Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas.
Detroit Tigers: 16 Percent
7 of 9Jacoby Ellsbury is largely responsible for these melancholy, post-ALCS interviews. He batted .318/.423/.455 for the Boston Red Sox in that series with a team-high seven hits to deny the Detroit Tigers another American League pennant.
If you can't beat him, why not convince him to join you? (Sorry for distorting that famous adage, but you get the idea.)
Austin Jackson is already one of the better center fielders in the sport, but he doesn't rival Ellsbury's baserunning and contact skills. Conveniently, the Tigers have a vacancy in left field following a disappointing year from Andy Dirks and Jhonny Peralta's entrance into free agency, so there's room for both of them.
Scott Boras' ginormous contract demands won't scare off team owner Mike Ilitch. The wealthy entrepreneur has shown a willingness to spend big the past few years in his desperation for a World Series championship. That included negotiating a $214 million deal with Boras when Prince Fielder was on the market.
There are more bloated salaries on Detroit's payroll than there was back then, but Jon Heyman believes that the front office could lighten the load via trade.
Starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer—both of whom will pass through arbitration for the final time—have been made available. According to MLB Trade Rumors, moving the right-handers would save the Tigers $7.7 million and $13.6 million, respectively.
Washington Nationals: 20 Percent
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The Washington Nationals, who entered 2013 with world-champion aspirations, finished toward the middle of the pack in most meaningful offensive categories. It's no wonder that they're contemplating personnel changes.
The most expendable piece, according to Jon Heyman, is center fielder Denard Span. Washington acquired him only a year ago via trade. He's coming off an above-average campaign (2.4 rWAR/3.5 fWAR) and owed only $6.5 million for his upcoming age-30 season ($9 million club option with $500,000 buyout for 2015). There's clearly a trade market for him.
Even before we knew that Span was movable, Heyman reported that the Nats had interest in Jacoby Ellsbury. He acknowledged the history of Scott Boras negotiating numerous deals with owner Ted Lerner. Boras clients on the current roster include Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Stephen Strasburg and Jayson Werth.
This past summer was the first time since moving to the nation's capital that the franchise exceeded the average MLB payroll, per Baseball Prospectus. Anticipate the spending to continue in an effort to eliminate the gap between Washington and the Atlanta Braves. Ellsbury has the potential to do that single-handedly.
Seattle Mariners: 30 Percent
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All the Seattle Mariners have wanted for Christmas—for the past several Christmases—is a productive outfielder to bolster their anemic offense. They perennially ranked dead last in the American League in runs scored from 2009-2012, and drawn-in fences at Safeco Field only led to a subtle boost last summer.
This finally looks like the offseason that the M's will reel in a marquee name. As Baseball Prospectus illustrates, their future payroll obligations through the end of the decade include Felix Hernandez and very little else.
Seattle specifically wants Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo, tweets Ken Rosenthal. Coming off a fourth-place campaign in which the team fared horribly against left-handed pitching, we should expect a stronger push for Ellsbury. His platoon splits aren't nearly as dramatic as Choo's.
Another edge that the Mariners might have in the Ellsbury sweepstakes is their location. Although most free agents aren't intrigued by the Pacific Northwest, this speedy superstar was born and raised in Oregon.
A recruiting pitch from Ken Griffey Jr.—who works for the organization as a special consultant—should only increase Seattle's odds of getting a blockbuster deal done.
Ely is a national MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a sportscaster for 90.5 WVUM in Miami. He wants to make sweet, social love with all of you on Twitter.
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