The Championship Formula: Who Has It and Who Doesn't?

Aah the air of the playoffs.  It seems like this time of the year fans are breathing, eating, and sleeping the playoffs. You hear talks from the "Kobe haters", the " LeBron band-wagoners", the "Carmelo arrivals", and so on and so forth with critiques about fans of stand out players. Can we, for one moment, take our hearts and emotions out of this and use what facts we have in front of us, those facts being a little thing called history?

History has been able to bless us  with a formula for championships.  That formula says that your need a dominant post player, and swing-men shooters. All teams would love to shoot free throws, uncontested shots, and attempt high percentage field goals. The dominant post players' job is to score the high percentage field goals or get to the foul line. 

The swing-men shooters knockdown uncontested shots. Defenses realize that they can't afford to give up high percentage shots, especially in the last three minutes of the game. They usually will send an extra man in the post for a double team.  When the post player recognizes this tactic, he'll kick it back out. Usually a safe two to three passes away is an open swing-man who will shoot an uncontested shot.  If the defense doesn't send an extra man, the post player will go for the high percentage field goal. Possibly getting fouled in the process, and get free throw attempts.

Now lets think back on the last decade or so.  These following teams were great at this  Championship theory:

The '08-Boston Celtics (Garnett,Allen,Pierce), '07-San Antonio Spurs (Duncan,Ginobilli,Parker), '06-Miami Heat (Oneal,Wade,Posey), '05-San Antonio Spurs (Duncan,Ginobilli,Bowen), '03-San Antonio (Duncan), '02-00-Los Angeles Lakers (Oneal,Bryant,Horry,Fisher etc.), '99-San Antonio Spurs (Robinson,Johnson,Elliott),  and the '95-94-Houston Rockets (Olajuwan,Ellie,Horry,Smith). 

If you notice they're a few years that were skipped.  Those years are the exceptions to the formula.  The 2004 Pistons played against an over confident Lakers, proving the lesson never under estimate your opponent. The '96-98, and '91-93 Bulls who had Batman and Robin were also major exceptions to the Championship theory.

This season teams have Los Angeles (Gasol,Bryant,Ariza), Orlando (Howard,Lewis,Turkoglu), Denver (Anthony,Billups), and Cleveland (James). 

Needless to say there are a few holes both in Denver and Cleveland's rosters. Denver lacks post play, Cleveland has Batman but no Robin, and definitely no post play.  That leaves L.A. and Orlando.  Lets face it both teams have dominant post players and swing-men shooters, but only one of those teams has a Batman. 

That's right the L.A. Lakers will be the '09 champions of the NBA.  I know that history is labeled as "his-story" sometimes.  Ladies and gentlemen, my prediction is, prepare for "his-story" as it unveils itself right in front of your eyes.