Breeders' Cup 2013: Live Long Shots for Saturday's Card

Favorites were blanked on Friday during the five Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita, and it could be more of the same on Saturday, with nine championship races remaining during the two-day championship event.

Friday’s card was dominated by the European shippers, who won three of the five Breeders’ Cup races. The Euros were not represented in the other two races.

The other part of the handicapping equation is going to be seeing if the speed bias that was prevalent on Friday continues.

Horses on or near the lead were tough to beat, particularly early on the card before the Breeders’ Cup races were run. There were two huge upsets early, with Heir to Storm taking the field gate-to-wire in the second race and paying $77.60, and then in the following race, Better Bet could not be caught and paid his backers $96.00 for a $2 wager.

Here is a look at three live long shots that should be included in your exotic wagers on Saturday.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Sweet Lulu (8-1) cuts back to seven furlongs after a game runner-up finish in the Cotillion (G1) at Philly behind Close Hatches. The filly made her stakes debut two-back in the Test (G1) at seven furlongs where she pressed the early pace and finished gamely to win by a hard fought head. The outing was her first on conventional dirt after racing on the fake stuff in her first three career starts, all wins.

This gal would be the first three-year-old to win this race, but we only have six runnings to look at. The filly is in good hands with the Jerry Hollendorfer barn that is 25 percent winners (with a +ROI), moving runners from route to sprint. The filly owns solid early and mid-pace numbers and should get a good trip on or sit just off the pace breaking from her far outside post.

Juvenile

New Year's Day (8-1) is one of two in here sent out by the Bob Baffert barn that has won this race twice, with Vindication in 2002 and Midshipman in 2008, both at Santa Anita. The colt checked in third in his debut sprinting and then broke his maiden in a good-looking effort last out, going a mile on the polytrack at Del Mar. The runner up in that race was Bond Holder, who came back to win the Frontrunner (G1) in his next outing on Sept. 28.

The colt has solid works on the morning tab, and this guy has a nice pedigree. The $425,000 purchase is by Street Cry out of the stakes winner Justwhistledixie ($449,427). The colt appears as if he is handling the main track at Santa Anita fine in the mornings.

Sprint

Bahamian Squall (10-1) stalked the early pace, came with a five-wide bid and spun his wheels in the stretch in a fifth place finish in the Vosburgh (G1) last out at Belmont Park. The colt caught a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. Two back in the A.G. Vanderbilt (G1), the colt stalked the early pace while well-in-hand, made a good move turning for home, altered course to the outside and finished up well for the runner-up spot.

The colt earned a career top in that effort, and three back, he won the Smile Sprint (G2) in a sharp effort. The colt owns a solid pace profile throughout and is likely going to get overlooked on the tote here.

Statistics from DRF Formulator
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