UFC Fight Night 31: Early Breakdown and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 31, also known as Fight for the Troops 3, will hit Fort Campbell, Kentucky on November 6th. The main event features former Army Ranger Tim Kennedy going up against late replacement Rafael Natal.

Lyoto Machida was the original opponent for Kennedy, but when Machida replaced Bisping on the UFC Fight Night 30 card Natal stepped in. It is a less high-profile main event, but Natal poses his own set of challenges.

Four other fights are on the main card including another member of the Army, Colton Smith, and former Marine Liz Carmouche.

We are a week away from the event, but let's take an early look and breakdown the main card matchups.

Colton Smith vs. Michael Chiesa

Two former winners of The Ultimate Fighter take to the cage to open the main card when Colton Smith and Michael Chiesa meet at Fight for the Troops 3.

This is a close fight, but stylistically I favor Smith.

He can get the repeated takedowns to help him earn a decision. He has to be mindful of Chiesa's quality submission game, but he will be mindful of that entering this fight. It will allow him to maintain top position for the majority of the fight.

Both fighters need a win to get some momentum, but it will be Smith that comes away with his hand raised in front of his U.S. military brethren.

Prediction: Smith defeats Chiesa by unanimous decision.

Jorge Masvidal vs. Rustam Khabilov

The fight between Jorge Masvidal and Rustam Khabilov is not getting much press, but it may be the Fight of the Night at UFC Fight Night 31.

Khabilov has won five straight and is 2-0 in the UFC.

Masvidal picked up his third straight win with a submission victory over Michael Chiesa in July. He is working his way back up the lightweight ladder. Another win may push him into the top 10 of the division.

Masvidal is a tough out for anyone, and this may be too experienced of an opponent for Khabilov right now. Masvidal will show that Khabilov was not ready for the jump up in competition with a solid performance leading to a clear-cut decision.

Prediction: Masvidal defeats Khabilov by unanimous decision

Ronny Markes vs. Yoel Romero

Ronny Markes has won seven straight fights, and is 3-0 inside the Octagon. Yoel Romero made an impactful UFC debut in April with a KO of Clifford Starks. This is an interesting battle in the UFC middleweight division.

It has been two years since Markes has finished an opponent, and don't look for that to change at UFC Fight Night 31. He won't win this fight.

Romero has KO power, but his strength is truly in the grappling department. Romero is an Olympic silver medalist in wrestling. He can control this bout. Wherever Romero feels comfortable is where this fight will take place, and that will be bad new for Markes.

Romero won't get the quick KO this time around, and it will be 15 minutes of control.

Prediction: Romero defeats Markes by unanimous decision.

Liz Carmouche vs. Alexis Davis

This ought to be the main event. It is a fight between two top-10 fighters, and potentially has title implications. However, it will be saddled in the co-main event slot next week.

Liz Carmouche got back on the winning sides of things with a TKO performance over Jessica Andrade in July. A month before, Davis picked up her third straight win in a tough bout against Rosi Sexton.

Carmouche loves to ground and pound, and Davis is one of the better submission artists in the division. While Davis' UFC debut was not as stellar as she wanted, she will likely show why she is so highly regarded in this bout.

If Carmouche can repeatedly take Davis down it is her fight to lose. Her top control will be too much in a 15-minute fight, but I do not see her being able to continually put Davis down. Davis' improved striking will be a factor early in the fight, but in the second she will use her jiu-jitsu.

Davis will submit the former Marine in front of the troops. It won't be Carmouche's desired outcome, but it will be a statement from the Canadian.

Prediction: Davis defeats Carmouche via submission in the second round.

Tim Kennedy vs. Rafael Natal

Rafael Natal has been one of the more undervalued fighters in the UFC with a 5-2-1 record. He has just lacked that premiere bout to showcase his skills. He'll get that chance in the main event against Tim Kennedy.

Kennedy made a solid UFC debut by controlling the action against Roger Gracie. The win was his second in a row. He will try to make a case for a top-10 ranking with a dominant win.

While the matchup against Machida was an awful one for Kennedy, the matchup against Natal is very good for the Army Ranger. Kennedy's pace will ultimately be the difference in the bout. Kennedy won't be submitted by Natal, and it is doubtful he gets caught with a clean KO shot either.

Kennedy's well-rounded skills and pace will break Natal before we reach the deep rounds of a main event. Kennedy will look very good in this fight, earn the stoppage and get a bigger name in his next fight.

Prediction: Kennedy defeats Natal by TKO in the third round.