NFL Picks Week 5: Forecasting Sunday's Biggest Clashes
It's hard to believe that we're already a quarter of the way through the season.
It feels just like yesterday Peyton Manning torched the Baltimore Ravens defense and the Jacksonville Jaguars were tied for first place in the AFC South.
The good news for the teams that are struggling is that there's still enough time to right their seasons and fuel that playoff push.
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Four games give you a nice idea of how good most teams are, but don't forget almost everybody has 12 more games left on the schedule. There's so much parity in the league, you could see the 0-4 New York Giants end up winning the NFC East.
Here are the picks for Week 5, along with more in-depth breakdowns for some of this weekend's biggest matchups.
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
Will the Seattle Seahawks ever cure their road woes? It's understandable to be a much better team at home, especially when you've got a home-field advantage like the one at CenturyLink Field.
What doesn't make sense is how Seattle is such a vastly different team when playing away. In the last five seasons, the Seahawks are a combined 11-29 on the road, with their best single-season record at 3-5. It's hard to secure home-field in the postseason when you can't win away in the regular season.
Unfortunately for them this weekend, they won't have Matt Schaub to help push them through to a victory. Andrew Luck won't be so generous.
The Colts have looked really good so far, winning their last two games away from home, which is a nice accomplishment no matter who the opponent. Indianapolis' lone loss this season was to the Miami Dolphins by three points. There isn't too much shame in that.
At home, the Colts can look like one of the best teams in the league. They play at a different level when playing in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.
The game could come down to how successful each team's rushing attack is. A steady ground presence will wear down the defense and take the pressure off the quarterbacks.
Despite Marshawn Lynch on the other side, the Colts get the edge. Trent Richardson looked good last Sunday, and he'll continue improving the more he adjusts to Indianapolis' offense. He's got Donald Brown there as well to help shoulder some of the load.
Indianapolis 24, Seattle 20
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals aren't so much in free fall as they're just stuck in neutral, sporadically kicking the car into reverse. Cincinnati can't build any momentum because once things start going well, Andy Dalton throws an interception or BenJarvus Green-Ellis coughs up the ball.
The defense hasn't been great enough to cover up for the continued struggles of the offense, and Geno Atkins has done little since signing that massive contract extension. It would be nice for the Bengals if he found his groove again.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have continued chugging along. It's incredible how New England has remained one of the best teams in the league despite all the injuries and off-field problems it has had to deal with. The Pats are 4-0, and we haven't even seen their best football.
Their defense will be good enough to slow down the Bengals' patchy offense, and Brady will be able to pick apart a secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw 235 yards a game. Cincinnati really should have lost to the Green Bay Packers, really getting lucky with that fumble recovery for a touchdown.
There's no reason to put a lot of faith in the Bengals right now, just as there's no reason to doubt Brady and the Patriots.
New England 28, Cincinnati 17
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
This could well be the most fun game of the weekend.
On one side, you've got the high-powered New Orleans Saints offense that's third in the league in yards and seventh in points.
On the other, you've got a Chicago Bears defense which is actually way down from last year (from fifth to 21st in total yards) but also a defense which has forced nine turnovers in four games.
It will be hard for Chicago to be as bad as it was in Week 4. The defense let Reggie Bush run all over the place, while Jay Cutler had one of the worst games of his career. And yet the Bears still only lost by eight points.
This is the Saints' first real test away from home. Although that's usually a hindrance for other teams, such as the Seahawks, New Orleans has generally been very good on the road.
Some might consider this an upset, but the Bears will pull through in what will be a bit of a rugged affair. Cutler will avoid costly turnovers, while Matt Forte will help to keep the clock moving and wear down the Saints defense. Drew Brees can't hurt you if he's not on the field.
Charles Tillman will also be motivated to improve upon his performance against the Detroit Lions. Look for him to be at his ball-hawking best.
Chicago 21, New Orleans 17

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