Can the Denver Nuggets win the West?

The Denver Nuggets baffle you. Just admit it. They sure as heck baffle me.

I went to a Nuggets vs. Kings game during the regular season, and the Kings ran them out of the Arco Arena faster than they ran out Ron Artest. That's when I convinced myself the Nuggets were NEVER to be trusted, especially not in the playoffs.

Yet, time and time again this postseason, they've surprised us.

In the first round, the Nuggets showed they can out-think one of the best young point guards in the NBA in Chris Paul.

Then in the second round, they outscored the offensive-minded, sharp-shooting Mavs, while dodging their sharp-tongued owner.

Now, barring a miracle comeback by the Houston Rockets, they are on a collision course with the mighty Lakers, equipped with the best player in the league (who's not named LeBron James) and a stellar supporting cast. The Lakers pose another challenge to the diverse Nuggets as well, a great defense.

What? Defense? What's that? The only team in the Western Conference that dares to show their defense in public, the San Antonio Spurs, who were exited in the first round. But honestly, without Manu Ginobili, they never had a chance.

The Lakers play "D". They don't admit it, but they are quick, tough, and they score off turnovers. 

You know Chauncey Billups will show up in this series, but you never really know with  Carmelo Anthony. He seems to get frustrated when he has to keep up with a good player on defense. However, Melo is not the key to this series, and neither in Billups.

I would argue Nene and J.R. Smith are the ones to watch.

Can Nene stay out of foul trouble against Pau Gasol? Will he score against him? Nene is one of those players who never really gets the respect he deserves, except from his own team.

Let's be honest, the Nuggets got rid of Marcus Camby to free up playing time for Nene. Camby was a force in the middle, so when the Nuggets let him go, I was skeptical of the move. They've proven me wrong. Denver is definitely a better team on both sides of the ball without Camby.

Mystery man Smith needs to score the basketball. This will take the pressure off of Melo and even open him up for better shots and fewer double teams. Smith is a solid defender, with a real chip on his shoulder.

However, Smith reminds me of a player who can also ruin the Nuggets run with one simple outburst. Is it just me, or is he always around when a punch is thrown or a flagrant is committed? If Smith can control his temper, and take the offensive pressure off Melo, the Nuggets have a great chance against L.A.

But would I put money on the Nuggets? Not a chance.

The memories of the Arco debacle, where cream-puff Kevin Martin looked like "The Big O," (26 points, 7 rebounds and 8 assists) are still too vivid in my mind.

But I wouldn't bet against them, either.