The F1 Title: They Think It's All Over

Here we are then, five races into an F1 season of seventeen, and Jensen Button has a commanding lead over the rest of the pack. It seems unlikely now that anyone will be able to overtake him.

Or so I keep reading and hearing; they think it's all over, but it ain't.

Brawn GP under the redoubtable Ross Brawn have certainly put an ace car on the track, that is undeniable, and even I have to believe it. It is also self-evident that Button has driven superbly and consistently.

Yet there is more to scoring wins than driving ability, there is more than having a good car, there is more than having probably the best ever F1 strategist on your side. It helps to have a bit of luck, it is marvellous when the fickle finger of fate deflects the dagger from your throat.

I am warming to this notion now, so please bear with me while I stray into the twilight zone and outline an alternate reality to you.

Do you remember the Melbourne race? Lewis Hamilton does, but forget him for now. You will surely recall that Sebastian Vettel was looking good for 2nd or 3rd place until he had contact with Robert Kubica and was out of the race due to his car being in numerous pieces.

Undo that reality, and give Vettel the 3rd place. Score: Button 10 points, Vettel 6 points.

Due to the stewards foolishness (IMHO), Vettel was relegated down to 13th on the Malaysia grid as a penalty for the Melbourne prang; stewards don't want to see drivers fighting for places, it's not gentlemanly. From the 3rd position he qualified in he would have been a strong bet for a win, given that he was running longer than the Brawns, but I'll compromise and settle for 2nd when the race was stopped.

Score now: Button 15 points, Vettel 10 points.

On then to China. Here Vettel got his first Red Bull win and Button was 3rd, in fact and in my little fantasy. Score now: Button 21 points, Vettel 20 points.

In Bahrain Vettel was clearly quicker than Button, but qualified 3rd due to a silly fuel load, and finished 2nd. Undo that reality, give Christian Horner a brain-transplant, and we see the top two reversed.

Score now: Button 29 points, Vettel 30 points.

In Spain the Red Bull was again quicker than the Brawn, but again Horner snatched defeat from victory by burdening Vettel with enough fuel to drive home to Germany. For the purposes of my alternative and entirely reasonable reality, replace Horner with someone who knows what they're doing, and we see Vettel leading Webber at the finish, with Button limping home 3rd.

Score now: Button 35 points, Vettel 40 points.

In the real world, Button has 41 points to Vettel's 23. But just as the first five races could easily have led to Button not being the current front-runner, so the next five could see the wheel of fortune turn in Vettel's favour.

Young Seb has the car, and he has the talent. If only Red Bull designer Adrian Newey's genius was complemented by strategic thinking of the calibre Ross Brawn provides for Button, then we would see a fight for the title, and nobody would be thinking it's all over.