Breaking Down Locks, Contenders and Long Shots to Make NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase

NASCAR only has five races before the Chase starts.

Each of the five remaining races has the possibility to shake up the point standings. As we get closer to the postseason, though, which drivers are locks, contenders and long shots to make the Chase?

Certain drivers have been a lock since midway through the regular season with several wins and solid finishes.

Other drivers sit on the fence between seeing the postseason and missing it altogether.

Then there are drivers who may have had a chance at one point in the year, but now seem too far out to be able to make the Chase.

With five races to go in the regular season, anything can happen. Here are 10 drivers who are locks, contenders and long shots to make the Chase this year.

Lock: Jimmie Johnson

With four wins this season, and being the dominate driver at almost every track NASCAR has gone to this year, Jimmie Johnson is a lock for the Chase.

The real question surrounding Johnson, though, is will he be able to deliver in the postseason? We've seen a driver who can dominate a race and then lose it all in a split second.

Indianapolis was proof of how important a pit crew is, as Johnson lost because of a 17-second pit stop.

Then a blown tire put him in the wall during a Pocono race where he set a new record and was out to an early dominant start.

Johnson remains the man to beat in NASCAR, but even though he's a lock for the Chase, will he be able to complete the season with a sixth championship?

Contender: Jeff Gordon

After a second-place finish at last week’s Pocono race, Jeff Gordon sits ninth in the points standings. While he may not have any wins, if Gordon can keep his solid position, he should be a strong contender to make it into the Chase.

There are several tracks Gordon excels at coming up in the NASCAR schedule, like Watkins Glen and Richmond.

Hendrick has also been running strong this season, with three Hendrick cars finishing well at last week’s race.

With tracks where Gordon runs well coming up before the Chase, and Hendrick power dominating this season, expect Gordon and the 24 team to make the postseason.

Long Shot: Tony Stewart

Before Tony Stewart broke his leg, he might have easily been a contender to make it into the Chase. Now that he is more than likely sitting out this weekend at Watkins Glen, Smoke is going to have a hard time making it into the postseason.

Smoke runs well on road courses, and Watkins Glen could have been a huge push forward in points.

Instead, he will be sitting out, but the real question is, for how long? The Chase is closing in, and if Smoke has to sit out for several races, there is almost no way he can find a driver capable of making a late-season push like he can.

Stewart’s season is basically finished with his current injury, and his Chase hopes might be done as well.

Lock: Matt Kenseth

Even though Matt Kenseth continues to fall down the points standings, this Joe Gibbs Racing driver is a lock for the Chase.

With four wins under his belt, and solid performances throughout the season, Kenseth will head into the Chase with a lot of momentum behind him.

Like Jimmie Johnson, however, Kenseth has run into bad luck this season, regardless of having four wins. He struggled at Pocono and slipped two spots in the standings.

And even though he has four wins like Johnson, Kenseth hasn't been a main focus in pre-race media like Johnson has.

The biggest concern for the 20 team is finding a way to keep Kenseth running well when the Chase gets underway.

Still, Kenseth and the 20 group can rest assured knowing they've locked up a Chase spot.

Contender: Brad Keselowski

The window is closing for Brad Keselowski.

The defending Sprint Cup champion sits 12th in points and is only seven points out of the top 10.

If he can continue finishing well leading up to the Chase, Keselowski could sneak into the postseason. Of course, if he wins a race or two leading up to the Chase, it would help give him some security, but with Greg Biffle dropping two spots after the Pocono race, Keselowski has a solid chance to crack the top 10.

He'll have to hold back his former teammate Kurt Busch, but as long as Brad and the No. 2 team stay focused, the Blue Deuce will be racing to defend his championship this year.

Long Shot: Denny Hamlin

As the Chase gets closer, it’s becoming clear that Denny Hamlin will more than likely miss the postseason.

The JGR driver continues to struggle, even on tracks where he usually runs well.

And unfortunately for Hamlin, even though there are several tracks before the Chase where he runs strong, he will likely continue to struggle.

To make matters worse, not only would he need to win two races, he would also need to get himself back into the top 20 in the standings.

Both these things seem impossible for a driver who continues to struggle.

Hamlin is a long shot to make the Chase, and he'll more than likely end up missing the postseason for the first time.

Lock: Kasey Kahne

Kasey Kahne is eighth in the standings, and he is a solid lock to make the Chase this year.

If he continues to run well through the rest of the season leading up to the Chase, Kahne will only move up in the standings.

If he stumbles, he has two wins this year to help him stay in the wild-card position. With only a handful of races left in the regular season, it's hard to see another driver winning three of them and being a threat to Kahne's position if he does get knocked down to a wild-card spot.

After winning the Pocono race last week, Kahne locked himself into the Chase, and he'll be competing for Hendrick Motorsports in the postseason for the second year in a row.

Contender: Martin Truex Jr.

Last year, Martin Truex Jr. made the Chase without winning a single race.

This year, he has one win and is holding onto the second wild-card spot.

That might sound like a risky spot to be in, especially when Keselowski and Kurt Busch are higher than him in the standings, but with Stewart suffering from a broken leg and out for weeks, Truex could easily move up and lock in the first wild-card spot.

He was able to make the Chase last year through solid finishes, and if he can finish well in these last races before the Chase, he can move up in points.

However, he can always be knocked out, especially if Stewart-Haas Racing finds a driver, or drivers, who can maintain where the 14 is now in the standings and if Kurt Busch or Keselowski manage to win one or two races before the Chase.

With one win in the season, though, all Truex needs to do now is finish in the top five or 10 throughout the rest of the season and he should have no problem making the Chase.

Long Shot: Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch, like other drivers trying to make the Chase, needs to desperately get a win before the regular season is over.

His best chance will be at Watkins Glen this weekend, but if Kurt fails to impress there, don't expect to see him in the postseason.

It's not Kurt's fault if the 78 team fails to make the Chase. Instead, the 78 team in general should take the blame. 

Kurt has driven the wheels off of his cars, but when his pit crew is slow, or when it makes changes that impact the car negatively, Kurt begins to struggle. Of course, all teams deal with slow pit stops and bad changes every now and then, but the 78 team seems to struggle with recovering from them.

Can Kurt still make the Chase? It might happen. However, if the 78 team doesn't step up, Kurt will need a lot of luck to see the postseason.

Lock: Clint Bowyer

Clint Bowyer hasn't won a race yet this season, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered a lock for the postseason.

He sits second in points, and it would be extremely hard for him to slip out of the top 10 in the standings, especially with only five races left in the regular season.

Bowyer only has one DNF, but because he's been able to finish solid throughout the season, he's given himself and the 15 team a nice cushion.

Bowyer was a real contender for the Sprint Cup title last season and started to come alive at the end of the regular season and during the Chase. Don't be surprised to see Clint and the 15 team do the same thing this year.

With how well he has continually run this season, Clint Bowyer is a lock to make the Chase.