Realistic Expectations for Brandon Jennings' First Season with Detroit Pistons

After trading for Brandon Jennings, the Detroit Pistons now have a roster with playoff aspirations in 2014.

Jennings is a clear upgrade from Brandon Knight at the point guard position, and he brings playoff experience to a very young roster.

Even though he's already signed his second NBA contract, Jennings will be just 24 years old when the season starts. He still has plenty of room to grow with recent first-round picks Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

His four seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks were fairly successful, but he failed to improve much from a rookie campaign in which he averaged 15.5 points and 5.7 assists. The Pistons hope a change of scenery is just what he needs.

Offensively

Jennings may be a score-first point guard, but he is a solid outside shooter and takes good care of the basketball.

His three-point percentage improved to 37.5 percent a season ago, 17th among the 45 qualified point guards. He's not yet an elite shooter, but he hits more than enough to justify the nearly six threes he takes a game.

And although long twos are the least efficient shot in basketball, he shoots fairly well from that range as well, particularly from the wings. He shot nearly 43 percent from the right side and a fantastic 47 percent from the left.

Jennings should benefit from legitimate low-post threats and improved pick-and-roll partners in Detroit, and he should be able to duplicate his outside shooting numbers from a season ago.

His biggest struggles come at the rim, where his lack of size (he's listed at 169 pounds) makes it hard to finish against the big bodies inside. While he has the quickness and ball-handling ability to beat his man, he shot just 42 percent on shots within eight feet of the basket.

The Pistons have a trio of frontcourt players who excel at finishing near the basket. Jennings should see plenty of easy assists in the paint if he looks for his big men.

As for running an offense, Jennings has been consistently careful with the ball during his career. His turnover rate in 2012-13 was 9.7, and it has never exceeded 10 in his career, per ESPN (subscription required). Only 18 of the 82 qualified point guards last season had turnover rates below 10.

What Jennings really brings to the Pistons is the ability to create shots for himself and his teammates off the dribble, something they lacked last season.

Jennings is still growing as a player and will benefit from an improved surrounding cast in Detroit. There is no reason he can't average 18 points and eight assists this season for the Pistons.

Defensively 

With a number of great point guards in the Eastern Conference, the Pistons need Jennings to make big strides on the defensive end of the court.

He gets a good number of steals because of his quickness (1.6 per game in 2012-13), but he lacks consistent effort and struggles against bigger guards.

Last season, opposing point guards posted a PER of 16.7 against him (per 82games.com), above the league average of 15. And as a team, the Bucks gave up 2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when Jennings was on the court. 

In Milwaukee, he played next to Monta Ellis, another undersized guard who struggled defensively. That pairing certainly didn't help Jennings' defensive numbers. Opposing point guards posted a PER of 15.1 against him in 2011-12, when Ellis played less than half a season with the Bucks.

Even with a better backcourt mate, Jennings will no longer be playing in front of Larry Sanders, who was one of the best interior defenders in basketball a season ago. Drummond will become an elite interior defender sooner rather than later, but he still has a long way to go.

Overall, Jennings projects to be a mediocre defender who will get a fair share of steals. Along with Monroe, he'll be one of the weak defensive links in the starting unit.

Regardless of his ability to improve defensively, Jennings makes the Pistons one of the top eight teams in the East. Barring a significant injury, anything less than a postseason berth should be considered a failure.