After-the-Fact NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 1

(Note: I still insist on calling them predictions. I decline the opportunity to call them “postdictions”, or anything similarly dorky.)

Lakers-Jazz

Living in LA, my commute lately has been spoiled by every guy behind a sports talk radio mic picking this series as a sweep. It’s just not going to happen – which will make some great radio the day after the Lakers lose. Nothing like seeing those guys completely shorn.

Riddle me this: if the Jazz were the only team to have two players on the gold-medal-winning Olympic Team, why aren’t they a better team? They’ve got a couple solid big guys, someone who can knock down 3’s, and an elite point. And a Hall of Fame coach. Am I missing something here? Do they need new uniforms?

The Jazz will win at least one game, but only because time will slow down as Deron Williams approaches the speed of light, allowing just enough time for a game-winning bucket.

Prediction: Lakers in 5

Blazers-Rockets

The Blazers are a fun team to watch. Brandon Roy is a stud, Greg Oden looks like he could have grandkids, and "the Spanish Armada"is one of the coolest nicknames in the whole league.

The Rockets are without T-Mac, which is great news for their hopes to get through the first round. Yao is fantastic, they've got great defenders, and Von Wafer has (assuredly) the coolest real name in the league.

The addition of Ron Artest to the Rockets' coterie was an interesting one, but it's worked out well. You've got Yao Ming, who is so likeable it's outrageous. Then with McGrady going down, you lose your only vaguely polarizing player - and sunshine and rainbows start to emit from the Rockets while they play. You need Artest to balance out Yao. You can safely hate him, leaving you with a net indifference to the Rockets. Somebody should win GM of the Year for that.

I've got to hand it to defense during the playoffs, so I'm picking the Rockets to win (this is where after-the-fact predictions come in handy. I would have picked the Blazers before the series started. Hindsight wins).

Prediction: Rockets in 6

Spurs-Mavs

Tim Duncan will file for Social Security. And this year I won't have to hate the Spurs for being so freaking good.

Prediction: Mavs in 5

Nuggets-Hornets

The Hornets will prove everybody – sports guys, Byron Scott, Ghandi, the Pope – wrong by mailing in a game like nobody’s ever seen. In the playoffs. At home. This is definitely the kind of prediction you can’t make before the series. It’s time to remove the Hornets from our mental list of elite teams and put them back in the hoi polloi where they belong.

The Nuggets have matured so much progress this year it's frightening. It's like the Ringling Brothers grew up and got law degrees. They (the Nuggets, not the Ringling Brothers) only won 4 more games than last year, but I bet you wouldn't have been surprised if I said it was 40. They're not only going to win this first series, but they're going to make a splash later on too.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5

Cavs-Pistons

Lebron Lebron Lebron, blah blah blah, Lebron Lebron. Lebron.

This series is like playing the original Tecmo Bowl on NES as the Raiders, where Bo Jackson runs for a 100-yard touchdown every time he touches the ball and you win by 70 in every game.

I think the Cavs' brass have done an amazing job with this lineup. They’ve put together a deep roster of solid role players, with a combined 1.2 egos across like 10 guys. These guys do exactly what they’re supposed to do, and they do it every night. They’re the Greek chorus behind Lebron’s protagonist - the story's about him, but they'll fill in all the gaps as the plot unfolds. And nobody seems to mind that role in the slightest.

Do I need to even mention the Pistons? Didn’t think so.

Prediction:  Cavs in 4 halves. The second half of each game will be strictly exhibition.

Hawks-Heat

I think it’s degrading to a team when they get flak for not being a good “supporting cast” to their superstar – each one of those players was certainly  skilled enough to make it into the NBA, and has been at least decent enough to stick around. In the case of the Heat, though, you get the impression that they could start four incarnations of Dom Delouise next to Dwyane Wade and get the same result.

It’s also interesting to see the rise of the Hawks sort-of parallel the rise of the Nuggets. A couple of years ago, both teams were playing unmanaged, uncouth street ball, consisting entirely of potential and not necessarily any actual W’s. Then both teams brought in point guards – Billups for the Nuggets, Bibby for the Hawks – and everything turned around, culminating right now in the playoffs. The difference is that Bibby isn’t Billups, and the Hawks will only get to win one round before getting vaporized by the Cavs.

I predict a strange and extremely boring series with no close games. I also predict Josh Smith going 0/1 on between-the-legs dunks.

Prediction: Hawks in 7

Magic-Sixers

I like this Sixers team. I think the Cavs should pick up some of their players to fit into their role-players lineup. Thaddeus Young or Andre Miller would be a great fit.

The Sixers played some really good basketball to end the season, with good showings against the Celtics and the Cavs. Oh wait, they still lost to Boston. And oh yeah, the Cavs didn’t play their starters and the game still went to overtime. It’s always a blow to find out you’re just as good as somebody else’s second string.

The Magic will take this series, but they’ll have trouble shutting the door on close games just like they always do. That’s what you get when your star shoots 59% from the stripe. That’s not really who you want holding the ball with the game on the wire.

Prediction: Magic in 6

Celtics-Bulls

This one will be a long series – a hard-fought battle between old and young, teams on the brink of incline and (frankly) decline - with almost enough overtime periods to equal a whole extra game. When the dust clears, we will have had two prior ideas deeply reinforced:

1.       Derrick Rose is going to be a mega-star.

2.       Ben Gordon is a one-dimensional, selfish, shallow player – who also happens to be all balls. His whole body is made of balls. If you kick him anywhere, you’re kicking him in the balls. And sometimes, as much as it hurts me to say it, sometimes that's just who you need on your side.

My other prediction is that TNT will give us a great clip of Joakim Noah at his finest. He’ll foul out in Game 7, and they’ll cut to him taking a seat on the bench – just in time for him to drop a massive F-bomb on national TV. Following which they’ll cut away as fast as they can. There is no other word in our language that is so clearly conveyed even when you can’t hear it. Noah’s effort may not measure up to the sheer quantity of F-zingers KG will be doling out from the sideline, but the quality will be unmatched.

Prediction: Even though this series has technically concluded, I’m still picking the Bulls to win it. There’s still a chance. Bulls in 7.

Overall results: 7 out of 8 exactly correct. Better luck next year.