USA vs. Panama: Breaking Down Gold Cup Final by the Numbers

The United States and Panama square off Sunday afternoon in a rematch of the 2005 Gold Cup final and a 3-1 USMNT penalty shootout victory. For Panama to avenge that loss and notch its first Gold Cup trophy, it will need to show the same relentlessness it displayed against Mexico in the semifinals.

The Panamanians upended Mexico twice in this year’s tournament, both wins by a 2-1 margin in truly impressive fashion. El Tri is reeling from some underwhelming performances in international play, but the Americans aren’t having the same issue.

The United States will be the favorite in the Gold Cup final, but a win is far from guaranteed. Let’s break down the match by the numbers, highlighting a few key storylines to keep an eye on.

One

Per Brian Sciaretta of The New York Times, United States coach Jurgen Klinsmann has been suspended for the team’s final Gold Cup contest:

Klinsmann was handed a one-match ban following an outburst in the closing minutes of the team’s 3-1 win over Honduras on Wednesday, and with its leader away from the sidelines, the United States must find a way to maintain its focus and get some veteran leadership for its elder statesmen.

Two

Panama has won just two matches against the United States in international play, drawing once and losing on nine occasions.

For the Panamanians to buck the trend and avenge their 2005 Gold Cup loss, they’ll need to forget records and recent history.

Panama got to this point by playing exceptional defense and maintaining aggressiveness on the attack. Goals haven’t come easy, but Panama hasn’t lacked grittiness in the defensive third.

Three

Panama has surrendered just three goals through five Gold Cup contests. Against an explosive United States attack, that defense is going to have to hold firm.

The Panamanians have been able to control the action at midfield well enough to keep their opponents on their heels, but the Americans aren’t lacking in dynamic finishers. If Panama is to win on Sunday, it must find a way to maintain possession and avoid making costly mistakes in the defensive third.

Four

The USMNT has won four of the 11 editions of the Gold Cup, the last of which came against Mexico in 2007. Since that match, the United States has come up just short on consecutive occasions, both losses coming against Mexico.

El Tri is out, but it has been usurped by a team showing tremendous poise and confidence in Gold Cup play. Panama will be ready for this match, and the result will be an exciting battle that could easily come down to the final minutes.

Five

Landon Donovan and Chris Wondolowski lead all Gold Cup scorers with five goals apiece, and each will be critical to United States success on Sunday.

After taking off more than four months from the USMNT, many questioned Donovan’s ability to find his rhythm with a team already playing exceptionally well. The 31-year-old has silenced his critics to this point, putting an exclamation point on his return with two goals and an assist in the team’s 3-1 win over Honduras on Wednesday.

Wondolowski got off to a tremendous start with five goals in the group stage, but he’s been relatively quiet in the matches since. The United States hasn’t needed multiple scorers to contribute in every contest, but that may not be the case against Panama.

10

The USMNT is 10-0 in its last 10 contests, with its last loss coming at the hands of Belgium in an international friendly on May 29.

Since that time, the United States has found its rhythm, and it has done so while fielding several lineups in preparation for the 2014 World Cup. Even fielding what some are calling its "B" squad, the USMNT has been mostly dominant, especially in Gold Cup play.

As well as Panama has played to this point, it must play mistake-free football to beat the United States on Sunday. The USMNT can’t play a poor match, but it certainly has a little more room for error.

Prediction: United States 2, Panama 1

With Klinsmann suspended and Panama in top form, this match is going to be as exciting as any we have seen to this point.

Panama’s defense has been outstanding, and the United States hasn’t been lacking in the scoring department. If all goes as expected, Panama will be holding on until the very end.

Still, the United States has a ton of momentum right now and features a bevy of scorers capable of finding the net at any time. If Panama doesn’t play mistake-free football, it could see its Gold Cup aspirations evaporate in a hurry.

Look for Panama to keep this match close and the United States to give its best effort to find the net, eventually succeeding late in the contest with a go-ahead goal and its fifth Gold Cup trophy.