2009 Fantasy Football Running Back Forecast: AFC West

With the 2009 NFL Draft having come and gone it is now time to start focusing more on the most important draft of all in football, YOUR Fantasy Football draft. And the Bruno Boys can't think of a better way to get in the mood than to start focusing some attention on the running back position.

Now, we are not saying that the running back position is make or break, because we firmly believe that the best way to ensure success is to not only have an extremely well rounded team, but a deep team as well.

But, as Bruno Boys Nation already knows, part of my (Bruno Boys Ziza) responsibilities at the Bruno Boys is critiquing the running back position on a weekly basis throughout the season. 

So, today I am bringing you a rundown of what is happening in the NFL, that way you are not left scratching your head when August rolls around, wondering why Edgerrin James is not a Arizona Cardinal anymore.

During the weeks leading up to the season, myself and Bruno Boys Greg will be bringing you periodic updates that will guarantee that you stay one, no... 32 steps ahead of your competition.

Today we will be focusing on the teams in the AFC South. Keep on checking back with the Bruno Boys for other divisional running back updates that will help you stomp your way into your leagues Fantasy Football playoffs.

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DENVER BRONCOS

Bruno Boys Ziza's Take: There was no team in the NFL that came close to the injury problems that the Denver Broncos experienced in 2008. So much so that they went out and signed three new running backs in Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, and J.J. Arrington AND STILL drafted Knowshon Moreno in the first round of this years draft.

The Broncos have gotten a ton of flack for the overabundance of backs from many football experts, myself included, but in a way it does make sense. They have assembled a stable of running backs to go with injured Selvin Young and Ryan Torrain. I am sure their thinking is that if you get enough talent at the position, one or two are bound to stick.

There is no doubt that Moreno and his immense talent will be the leader of the group and possibly could do well enough to be a mid-late RB2 in deeper leagues depending on how the Broncos split the carries.

The rest of the RB's though fall into the RB4 category unless there is a breakthrough due to injury. They have a ton of talent at this position. This is a much watch to see how this backfield unfolds before the season starts.

Bruno Boys Greg's Take: When contemplating a Denver running back, the best thing to do is run completely away from the situation. It is anyone’s guess right now as to who will line up in the backfield for this team at the start the season. 

Here is a list of the guys who could potentially carry the rock for them this season: Knowshon Moreno, Michael Pittman, Ryan Torain, Selvin Young, J.J. Arrington, Correll Buckhalter, Andre Hall, LaMont Jordan, Tatum Bell, and Peyton Hillis.

With 10 running backs on the roster who have started games in the NFL (except first round pick Moreno), it’s really a crapshoot as to who will be the guy. A timeshare is more then likely to happen. I would expect most of the carries going to Moreno and Buckhalter. 

Torain, Young, Hall, Bell, Pittman, and Hillis were brought in under the old regime in Denver and likely won’t carry the load for new head coach, Josh McDaniels. Jordan has seen his better days and Arrington was brought in more for the return game. 

Grading the backs right now, I would say Buckhalter is a RB3 since he is established and should be the opening day starter and have Moreno as a RB4. For the rest of the guys, I would say RB5 at best unless things change between now and kickoff of Week One.

FANTASY DEPTH CHART: Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, J.J. Arrington, *Selvin Young, *Ryan Torrain

2009 SCHEDULE: @ CIN (1) , CLE (2) , @ OAK (3), DAL (4), @ NE (5), @ SD (6), BYE (7), @ BAL(8), PIT (9), @ WAS (10), SD (11), NYG (12), @ KC (13), @ IND (14), OAK (15), @ PHI (16), KC (17)

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Bruno Boys Ziza's Take: This is one of those situations in where you could start putting a lot of "what if's" into the scenario of figuring out if Larry Johnson still has anything left in the tank.

My take is that he still has the motor to at least get back to the 1,000-yard mark with a solid amount of touchdowns when he gets full-time work. The thing is that Jamaal Charles  and to a lesser extent Kolby Smith are both capable of carrying the rock as well.

Add into that mix the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs have a pretty brutal schedule coming up for 2009, and it is pretty safe to say that none of these backs will be more than a low-end RB2 at any point of the season.

And that is being nice. Johnson has the talent to have some pretty solid weeks but that will be intertwined with a bunch of average weeks. Draft Johnson if you can get him at a bargain rate which to me is a high-end RB3.

The other two are nothing more than handcuff options with the possibility of being solid enough to turn into a RB4. As in any situation though that is clouded with question marks, watch throughout the training camp and preseason games as anything could change in a drop of a dime.

 

Bruno Boys Greg's Take: While the situation is a bit murky in Kansas City, Larry Johnson comes in with little to no competition unless he gets traded away. 

 

Johnson hasn’t been himself the last two seasons, failing to reach 1,000 yards both times. Though, he will get a ton of opportunities in 2009 as long as he stays healthy. 

 

His backups will be Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, and Javarris Williams, who the Chiefs selected in the seventh round of the draft out of Tennessee State. Johnson should be a RB2 this season with upside if he stays healthy. His backups should all be RB4 at best.

FANTASY DEPTH CHART: Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith

2009 SCHEDULE: @ BAL (1), OAK (2), @ PHI (3), NYG (4), DAL (5), @ WAS (6), SD (7), BYE (8), @ JAX (9), @ OAK (10), PIT (11), @ SD (12), DEN (13), BUF (14), CLE (15), @ CIN (16), @ DEN (17)

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OAKLAND RAIDERS

Bruno Boys Ziza's Take: When healthy, it is Darren McFadden's gig to lead the silver and black out of the backfield. Unfortunately, his first season in the NFL was loaded with injuries which kept him from achieving solid results on the field.

Nonetheless, if he were to take his stats from last season and average it over a 225 carry year, he very well could top the 1,000 rushing mark and double-digit touchdowns.

And that is a pretty conservative prediction on my behalf. He has the tools to be very successful in the NFL. The question is, does his body have what it takes to withstand the daily beatings that players at his position garner. Look for him to be a mid-late RB2 in deeper leagues or a solid RB3 in smaller leagues.

As for the other two backs, Justin Fargas is the man that will get most of the carries if McFadden does go down with injury. He is a solid handcuff for McFadden  and is a low-end RB3, high-end RB4 when McFadden gets the majority of the touches.

Watch this closely though as when Fargas is the main back his value rises to low-end RB2. Michael Bush is nothing more than waiver wire fodder unless both McFadden and Fargas go down.

Bruno Boys Greg's Take: The Oakland Raiders have been a laughing stock in the NFL the last few seasons and will continue to be that way. One thing they do well, though, is run the ball. 

They have a strong three-headed horse in Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush. While there will be a bit of a timeshare here, it seems that you may be able to figure out who will see the bulk of the carries. 

McFadden was brought in to be a difference maker and could be considered a RB3 come draft time. Fargas will be No. 2 in line as far as productivity and should be a RB4. 

Bush will be the odd man out when it comes to touches and can be considered an RB5 unless an injury occurs to one of the two guys previously listed.

FANTASY DEPTH CHART: *Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, Michael Bush

2009 SCHEDULE: SD (1), @ KC (2), DEN (3), @ HOU (4), @ NYG (5), PHI (6), NYJ (7), @ SD (8), BYE (9),  KC (10), CIN (11), @ DAL (12), @ PIT (13), WAS (14), @ DEN (15), @ CLE (16), BAL (17)

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Bruno Boys Ziza's Take: The San Diego Chargers have long been the fortunate franchise who has held what was widely agreed as one of the best fantasy football running backs during the past handful of years. Unfortunately, LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled with injuries in each of the past two seasons.

Things are looking better in San Diego though as Tomlinson is bouncing around and looking healthier than he has in quite some time.

In fact, he has looked so good that there is word coming out of the Chargers coaching staff that he could possibly carry the rock 300+ times this year. If that is the case, Tomlinson could very easily jump back into a top-three RB if not higher for the 2009 season.

In fact, if I had the No. 1 overall pick, at this moment it would be a coin flip between him and the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson. Of course that prediction is a bit pre-mature as we still haven't even hit training camp yet.

As far as Darren Sproles goes, he is what he is. A solid backup with possible star-quality talent who is stuck behind Tomlinson for the time being. Perhaps you may have heard of his former backup in Michael Turner?

If injury were to fall upon Tomlinson, Sproles becomes a solid addition to any fantasy lineup in deeper leagues. As it stands, Tomlinson is a clear cut RB1, while Sproles is no more than a low-end RB3, high-end RB4 in deeper leagues.

Bruno Boys Greg's Take:  After watching LaDainian Tomlinson sitting on the sidelines hurt and Darren Sproles put up monster numbers in the playoffs, many fantasy owners will think it’s time for Tomlinson to take a back seat to Sproles.

I don’t see that as being the case; however, I do think Tomlinson will see a little bit less of a workload to keep him fresh come playoff time. 

Sproles and Gartrell Johnson out of Colorado State, who the Chargers drafted in the fourth round, should be the benefactors when it comes to vulturing LT's touches out of the backfield.

Tomlinson is still a RB1 in every league. In fact, on a down year last season he posted 1,536 total yards and 12 total touchdowns and that was with him playing in a lot of pain throughout the entire year. 

He heads into the 2009 season fully healthy and should put up good numbers even if his workload is reduced. Sproles should be a RB4, mainly because he is Tomlinson’s backup and unless LT goes down will only score on occasion.

FANTASY DEPTH CHART: *LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles

2009 SCHEDULE: @ OAK (1), BAL (2), MIA (3), @ PIT (4), BYE (5), DEN (6), @ KC (7), OAK (8), @ NYG (9), PHI (10), @ DEN (11), KC (12), @ CLE (13), @ DAL (14), CIN (15), @ TEN (16), WAS (17)

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