New England Patriots: 2009 or Bust? Belichick On Hot Seat Now

I know, it sounds mad. Bill Belichick, arguably the most successful coach of his generation, having to put up a quality season to defend his job. 

Insanity, right?

Maybe not. Belichick's legacy is more or less secure, he will go down as one of the greatest coaches of all time. We know this. What we don't know is what his immediate future may be.

The New England Patriots in the Oughts, or whatever we're calling this decade, have been the "it" team—the team to beat.

They have done this, largely, without purchasing free agents, by emphasizing the "team concept" over the individual and keeping a core of players together in an era where free agency seems to demand every player who excels at his position hit the open market to cash in on his value.

How is this possible? Well, a combination of things.

First, Bill brought the 3-4 back in vogue. By doing so he was able to cash in by underpaying for guys (both in terms of draft picks and free agent money) who didn't quite fit into the 4-3 systems that much of the league employed but who were dynamite in his system.

Second, Belichick and Pioli have not been afraid to jettison costly, and often popular, veterans before their value dropped. Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Deion Branch, Willie McGinest and even Troy Brown were all traded or allowed to leave or retire before the club committed an expensive, guaranteed contract to a guy on the wrong side of his career.

Ray Lewis may have plenty of tread left on the tires, but you can be assured that were he a Patriot, Belichick would never have signed him to such a large contract.

The first part has, for the most part, changed.

As many as 16 teams could employ a 3-4 base defense this year, especially the Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers who have all been very active in bringing in players who specifically fit the profile of key positions in the 3-4: the OLB who can rush the passer, a DE who can take two-gap responsibilities and stuff the run, and a nose tackle who can gobble up double teams at the center of the line.

These are the types of players the Patriots could once acquire much lower in the draft and through free agency. A guy like B.J. Raji with short arms and perhaps questionable pedigree and limited use as a 4-3 DT would've fallen far out of the top 10 in previous years.

This year? The only reason he didn't go higher was because there was a crop of exceptional, versatile DE/OLB prospects in front of him. How will Belichick cope, now, when half the league is looking for the same key guys he is?

The second part is a little cloudier. The Kraft family will certainly give Bill far more leeway than most owners. The fans, despite not seeing a Super Bowl win in a few years, are placated. Expectations are high, though, and Belichick still has to deliver.

But he must also do this without his right-hand man, Scott Pioli, arguably the best front office guy in the league. Belichick always reserved final say over personnel, but he now has even more to worry about—and all the pressure is on him, now. With Pioli gone, there is no question who the man behind the curtain is these days.

So while the seat isn't hot yet, another season or two without January football in New England and it could get warm in a hurry. I don't think Belichick faces the prospect of a pink slip anytime soon, but his legacy may certainly come under fire if the Patriots are unable to maintain their dominance with such a talented roster.

As the example of Mike Shanahan proves, failing to succeed with talent at your disposal can sour the position of any coach with management, even when they're close friends like Shanahan and Pat Bowlen are.

Certainly, with a group of aging veterans at linebacker and a number of popular, successful players up for contract renewal in the near future, Belichick at least has some tough decisions to make—decisions which could ultimately decide how we view his time in that cutoff hoodie.