Without a Triple Crown to create mainstream intrigue and drive flocks of casual fans to their television sets, the 2013 Belmont Stakes will need to massage a little manufactured tension into the proceedings this weekend.
Luckily, they have a pretty easy source. Owners of Kentucky Derby winner Orb and Preakness Stakes winner Oxbow have decided to enter their thoroughbreds in the 14-horse race, which will take place Saturday at Belmont Park.
The ownership groups and trainers for both horses are using this as one last opportunity to show off their Triple Crown victors, to pit two top-notch horses against one another in something of a hammer game. And the folks at the Belmont have to be thrilled, just as most fans were when the duo decided to enter the field.
By pitting Oxbow and Orb against one another, the headlines almost write themselves. It's the Kentucky Derby winner versus Preakness shocker, the horse that many thought would win the Triple Crown versus the one that ended that dream.
We're just forgetting one thing: There are 12 other horses in this field, all of which have owners and trainers looking to cap off the Triple Crown season the right way.
With that in mind, here's a quick breakdown of a few of those horses—excluding 9-2 Revolutionary—most likely to crash the Orb-Oxbow party.
Complete Field and Odds for 2013 Belmont Stakes
| 1 | Frac Daddy | Alan Garcia | Ken McPeek | 30-1 |
| 2 | Freedom Child | Luis Saez | Tom Albertrani | 12-1 |
| 3 | Overanalyze | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 4 | Giant Finish | Edgar Prado | Anthony Dutrow | 30-1 |
| 5 | Orb | Joel Rosario | Shug McGaughey | 3-1 |
| 6 | Incognito | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Kiaran McLaughlin | 20-1 |
| 7 | Oxbow | Gary Stevens | D. Wayne Lukas | 5-1 |
| 8 | Midnight Taboo | Garrett Gomez | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 9 | Revolutionary | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 9-2 |
| 10 | Will Take Charge | Jon Court | D. Wayne Lukas | 20-1 |
| 11 | Vyjack | Julien Leparoux | Rudy Rodriguez | 20-1 |
| 12 | Palace Malice | Mike Smith | Todd Pletcher | 15-1 |
| 13 | Unlimited Budget | Rosie Napravnik | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 14 | Golden Soul | Robby Albarado | Dallas Stewart | 10-1 |
Post positions and odds courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
Overanalyze (8-1)
Pegged as strong contender heading into the Kentucky Derby, Overanalyze proved to be anything but when the starting gun sounded at Churchill Downs. The colt floundered out of the gate, finishing a disappointing 11th place. It was the first time Overanalyze had ever finished outside the top five in his career, having only finished outside the money twice prior in seven prior races.
Following the decision to keep Overanalyze out of the Preakness, it was questionable whether fans would see him again at the Belmont. But trainer Todd Pletcher, who is responsible for over a third of the field, and owner Mike Repole have decided to give it one last try with their Triple Crown hopeful.
It might well pay off. Putting too much stock into the draw is always a dicey proposition, but Overanalyze's group couldn't have been displeased with taking No. 3. The third post has 15 winners throughout the Belmont's history, second-most of all time. And with John Velazquez hopping back aboard the Arkansas Stakes winner, the momentum is certainly shifting in Overanalyze's direction—at least for now.
Weather will unquestionably play a factor in Overanalyze's chances. The horse noticeably struggled amid the slog at Churchill Downs this year, never getting true footing on the muddy surface. For now, the prospect of Overanalyze getting a clean track to work with aren't great. Weather.com has forecast rain on Friday and showers in the morning prior to Saturday's kickoff to the festivities.
Should the weather forecast change, though, or be less severe than expected, Overanalyze has a real shot. He's inside the post far enough to have a clear path to the inside with a good start and also far enough away that he will be the theoretical pincher, not the horse being pinched into dropping behind the lead pack.
Keep the forecast in mind, but Overanalyze could be a good bet.
Unlimited Budget (8-1)
History, should it be personified and then turned into a horse racing prognosticator, would laugh at Unlimited Budget's 8-1 odds. The three-year-old filly will be looking to become just the second filly to win at the Belmont in the past century. That doesn't exactly scream underlying contender.
However, Unlimited Budget's performance throughout her young career says otherwise. The ascending horse has won four of five career starts, the outlier being a third-place finish at this year's Kentucky Oaks. Distance may play a factor—Unlimited Budget has never run a race longer than 1.125 miles—but Pletcher wouldn't have put her in the race without having full faith.
And Pletcher isn't one whose faith would be smart to question—especially when picking out fillies.
It was only six years ago that Rags to Riches, also under Pletcher's tutelage, became the first filly to win at the Belmont since 1905. So Pletcher has a pretty good track record with these sorts of things, even if the sample size is minuscule. If there's anyone who could make this happen, save for maybe Bob Baffert, it's Pletcher.
It also doesn't hurt Unlimited Budget will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik, possibly the world's most talked-about jockey at the moment. Napravnik will be attempting to become just the second woman to ever win a Triple Crown race, joining Julie Krone's triumph at the Belmont two decades ago. She's already had quite the strong Triple Crown season, helping steer Mylute to top-five finishes in the Preakness and Derby.
There's no question that the Triple Crown time will eventually come for Napravnik. History might be laughing at the notion that Napravnik's time is Saturday. We'll see if that's the case in a few days.
Incognito (20-1)
For our shot-in-the-dark pick, why not go with the horse whose Merriam-Webster definition is "with one's identity concealed?" There may be no horse in the entire field whose name exemplifies the underdog spirit and secondary coverage for the seeming non-contenders of the race.
And while no one would suggest throwing exorbitant sums of money Incognito's way because the horse has a cool name, there is a little bit of history working in his favor—albeit circumstantial.
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a bit of history working with horses few think had a chance. In his first attempt at the Belmont, McLaughlin led Jazil to a shocking victory in 2006. Riding atop the underdog horse was Fernando Jara, who was a mere 19 years old at the time.
McLaughlin is looking to follow a similar pattern this time around. Instead of Michael J. Luzzi, Incognito's jockey for each of his prior six races, the horse will be jockeyed by 20-year-old Irad Ortiz Jr. because of an injury.
Speaking with Yahoo!'s Eurosport, McLaughlin noted the similarities between 2006 and 2013.
“We won the Belmont with a 19-year-old jockey," McLaughlin said. "We’re hoping we can win with a 20-year-old jockey."
With two wins and no finishes worse than fifth place in his career, Incognito could have a better shot than folks realize. And don't forget: At this time a few weeks ago, no one knew Oxbow existed. So don't be surprised if the identity of this year's Belmont turns out to have a concealed identity, either.
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