Jonathan Gray's Projected Timeline from MLB Draft Pick to Big League Ace

No matter where Jonathan Gray goes in the 2013 MLB draft—whether he is the No. 1 overall pick or goes somewhere in the top 10—he’s eventually going to be a star in the big leagues.

Gray has been a big part of how successful Oklahoma has been this season. Without him, there’s no question the Sooners would be far from the Super Regionals, where they’re about to take on the LSU Tigers.

Gray, one of the best college pitchers available in this year’s draft class, is 10-2 in 16 starts for Oklahoma this year with a 1.59 ERA in 119 innings of work. He’s struck out 138 batters over the course of the season while walking just 22.

Gray and Stanford ace Mark Appel have the best chances at going 1-2 in the first round of the draft on June 6. The Sooner right-hander was ranked second in B/R MLB Prospects Lead Writer Mike Rosenbaum’s final draft board, just behind Appel. Rosenbaum did note that Gray had the highest ceiling of any other right-hander in the class, though.

In many mock drafts, you’ll find Gray going first overall to the Houston Astros. While that seems like a safe bet, I find Keith Law of ESPN’s latest mock draft to provide the most likely scenario (Insider subscription required). Law had Gray going No. 1 in his first mock draft but changed his mind in his second—details below—and stayed with that decision for the third.

Law explains how if the Astros don’t take Gray with the No. 1 selection and instead choose Colin Moran of North Carolina, Houston could save some money for other draft picks. If the Astros do take Gray, he’ll likely take most of the No. 1 pick draft slot of $7.79 million, as Law says.

In Law’s third mock draft, he thinks Gray will end up going to the Minnesota Twins with the fourth overall pick in the draft, with Moran to Houston, Appel to Chicago and Kris Bryant to the Colorado Rockies.

So let’s think about how Gray’s future could play out if Law were to control the draft and the Twins ended up taking Oklahoma’s ace.

After signing a deal with Gray—assuming that the junior decides to forego his senior season with the Sooners—the Twins will likely send the right-hander to the low levels of the minor leagues for the remainder of 2013. If all goes according to plan, he would probably start 2014 in Single-A Cedar Rapids.

The Twins don’t have much talent in Single-A or at Double-A New Britain, so if Gray pitches well early on in 2014, don’t be surprised if they give him a midseason promotion. From there, he’ll likely spend at least a year with the Rock Cats until he’s proven that he’s ready for the next step.

Now whether Minnesota feels comfortable promoting him all the way to the big leagues is up for debate, but the safer decision would be to send him to Triple-A Rochester. The only reason why the Twins would feel the need to get him to Minnesota would be if they were in contention.

For example, take a look at what the Baltimore Orioles recently did with one of their top prospects, Kevin Gausman. The Orioles were starting to fade and needed a talented starting pitcher to fill a void in the rotation. They felt that it would be beneficial to promote him from Double-A—albeit he hasn’t been sharp in three starts.

If the Twins keep playing like they have been—a last place team in the AL Central and one of the worst in baseball—there’s no need to rush him.

There should definitely be a spot open for Gray by the end of 2015 or, at least, early 2016. Entering 2016, the Twins’ starting rotation could include Gray, Kyle Gibson, Alex Meyer, Jose Berrios and potentially a free-agent signing or a starter acquired in a trade. That’s still a long ways away, but it appears that Minnesota could do some damage with those starters.

Once Gray makes it to the big leagues, there shouldn’t be much of an adjustment period. If Minnesota lands him, he will be the team’s ace for many years. He has incredible stuff, according to Teddy Mitrosilis of ESPN, who profiled Gray in mid-April.

Mitrosilis writes that Gray’s fastball was in the low-90s in high school and now constantly gets clocked in the upper-90s. He has a devastating slider that he throws at around 87 mph these days too. He’s worked on further developing his changeup, according to Mitrosilis.

With an arsenal like that and the potential that Gray could add a curveball on his path to the majors, it’d be tough to imagine that he’d allow many runs with the Twins. College opponents have certainly had a tough time figuring him out, as they only hit .188 against him.

Gray still has a lot of learning to do, but he’s bound to be a star in the big leagues some day. No matter which team takes a chance on him and eventually signs him, they’ll be getting an ace in the making. There’s no doubt about that.