Hawks-Heat Game 6: NBA Playoffs Expert Prediction

The Atlanta Hawks look to close out their first round series against the Miami Heat in a pivotal game six tonight in Miami. The Hawks who lead their series three games to two have been installed as five point underdogs in tonight’s game despite defeating Miami in the last two matchups by double digits, one of which came in Miami.

As a matter of fact, this series has been a series of blowouts.  The average margin of victory for the two teams thus far has been a staggering 19 point differential.

There is no question that the Heat will have a little extra motivation tonight, being at home on the brink of elimination. The Heat have played their best basketball at home as they are 29-14 straight up at home, however they are only .500 against the number going 21-21-1 this year including the playoffs. 

The Hawks on the other hand are just 17-26 straight up on the road but are also 22-21 ATS. The Heat, aside from their 10 point loss in game four, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The two teams have split their four meetings in Miami this year both straight up and against the number.

The interesting storyline tonight will be just how fired up Miami is going to come out after being embarrassed on Wednesday night. Things got a little out of hand as Atlanta built a 20 point lead and Josh Smith tried to do a between the legs breakaway slam dunk.

Dwayne Wade remarked, “We were very insulted,” while commenting on the Harlem Globetrotter act that Smith tried to put on the other night.

Wade’s head coach, Eric Spoelstra added, “There at the end it turned into a highlight show. A pickup game highlight reel, really trying to embarrass us. Now we’ve played five games against each other. I don’t think anybody on either side likes each other anymore.”

This heated battle should be even more fun to watch tonight. However, there are some injuries to keep an eye on. Wade complained of back spasms he endured in game five and then he slammed his head against the floor after colliding with the aforementioned Josh Smith but did return. 

The Hawks have power forward, Al Horford, listed as a game time decision.  Also for the Hawks, Marvin Williams is expected to miss again with a sprained wrist.

Trends to keep an eye on:

-Atlanta is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog of five points or higher
-Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games against an opponent with a home winning record
-Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog

-Miami is 11-23-1 in their last 35 as a favorite of 5-10.5 points
-Miami is 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite
-Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of ten points or more

BetVega Pick: Heat -5

By Ryan Moss (Senior Writer BetVega.com)

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