5 NCAA Basketball Teams with Rosters Ideally Suited for a Deep Tournament Run

Back in March, I studied past champions to see what they had in common. Most shared these characteristics: 

• Efficient on both ends. 
• Good three-point shooting. (Louisville ends up as an exception in this category.)
• A future pro in the post. Assuming Gorgui Dieng is drafted in the first round, nine of the last 11 champs will have produced a big man who was taken in the first round of the NBA draft. 
• Balanced scoring
• Good offensive rebounding. 
• Limits opponents' free throws. 
• Good two-point defense—holds opponents to below 45 percent inside the arc.
• A coach with postseason success

It's that simple! 

It's not easy to project how some teams will do in these area—that's why preseason rankings are a crapshoot—but this is an attempt to project five rosters equipped to win the title in 2014. If your team is not included, I obviously think your team has no shot at winning a title whatsoever. (Relax. I'm kidding!)

Note: All advanced statistics used in this piece come from KenPom.com (subscription needed). 

Syracuse Orange

The Orange are here for the same reason the Orange advanced to the Final Four in 2013: defense. In particular, two-point defense. 

Jim Boeheim's zone always encourages opponents to fire away from distance, and the Orange do such a good job contesting those threes that their opponents' percentages from beyond the arc are always low. But what Syracuse has improved the last couple years is its two-point defense. 

Last season, the Orange held opponents to 42.7 percent shooting inside the arc last year, which ranked 21st nationally. During the tournament, that number dropped to 40.8 percent, which would have ranked third nationally for the season. 

Syracuse also led the nation in block percentage—percentage of two-point attempts that are blocked—and the team's best five shot-blockers are returning for 2013-14. 

What we can say with certainty is that Syracuse's defense is going to be really good again. The big question mark is whether the offense can be close to as good. In addition to the shot-blockers (who double as really good offensive rebounders), Syracuse's best scorer, C.J. Fair, will be returning. Boeheim is also bringing in another stellar recruiting class. Read: There's some hope for that offense. 

Kentucky Wildcats

Where to begin? Obviously, Kentucky is going to have enough talent to compete for a title. Julius Randle is expected to be the star and a lottery pick, so you can check off NBA-ready post player. 

John Calipari has been so successful—excluding last season—with these freshmen-led teams because he gets his guys to buy into defense. Even last season, the Wildcats ranked eighth nationally in two-point defense. 

Two things to watch early is how Andrew Harrison plays at the point, which was a weakness for last year's team, and how well Kentucky shoots the three—the 2012 team shot a respectable 37.8 percent from deep.  

Arizona Wildcats

There were two reasons to eliminate Arizona from the championship pool before the tourney in 2013. 

1. Arizona's defense was good, but not efficient enough, ranking 32nd in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency. 
2. Arizona had talent in the post, but that talent was not developed enough. 

One reason to believe the Wildcats can turn that around next season is they were sort of unlucky in 2013. Their opponents shot 35.8 percent from deep--a staggering 264 NCAA teams were better at defending the three than Arizona. In each of the two seasons before that, Sean Miller's team ranked third in three-point defense. 

Those big men who weren't quite ready to be great should be improved next season. Sophomores Kaleb Tarczewski and Brandon Ashley are NBA talents. And if they aren't ready to dominate yet, incoming freshman Aaron Gordon could be. 

Gordon, who is projected to be a one-and-done lottery pick, will probably start out on the wing. But where he's best suited to dominate in college is as a stretch 4, something Rob Dauster at NBCSports.com wrote about on Tuesday. 

Assuming Miller gets that through to Gordon eventually, Miller will have his best team thus far in Tucson, one talented enough to win the title with some better luck. 

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is the easiest team in the preseason top 10, because we can actually dissect what they did last year, as opposed to just projecting and predicting the future. This is because the Spartans return four starters from last year's squad. 

And the 2012-13 Spartans were close to passing the efficiency test. The last 11 champs have all ranked in the top 20 in both defensive and offensive adjusted efficiency; the Spartans ranked 24th on offense and seventh defensively. 

Considering the three best offensive talents return—Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and Keith Appling—it's safe to assume the Spartans will make that leap into the top 20. 

The key is Payne. He has spent his career as a guy whose potential was talked about more than his productivity. He has first-round potential. If he plays to that potential as a senior and is more assertive, Tom Izzo's team will definitely be in the mix. 

Louisville Cardinals

This one is easy. Rick Pitino has enough pieces returning from a team that just won the championship for us to know that the Cardinals can do it again. 

The one big loss that could potentially be a difference-maker is Gorgui Dieng's departure. Dieng's ability to be a rim-protector allowed Louisville's guards to gamble defensively. 

The good news is that Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell are both NBA talents, and Harrell was a decent shot-blocker last season. He has the leaping ability and the length to improve in that area. 

The Cardinals could also benefit from better three-point shooting, as they shot only 33.3 percent last year from beyond the arc. More playing time for Luke Hancock should help. 

And that's nit-picking. The 2013 team had its deficiencies and still won the title. If the defense is as dominant for this version, the Cards will have a chance to repeat.