Belmont Stakes 2013: Long Shots Not Worth Betting On in Triple Crown Finale

The 2013 Belmont Stakes will be inevitably headlined by Kentucky Derby winner Orb and Preakness victor Oxbow.

While it will be interesting to see how they fare, and how some of the horses with longer odds ultimately stack up, there are particular wagers to avoid during the Triple Crown finale.

It's never wise to underestimate the trainer-jockey combination—unless the horse simply doesn't stack up to the competition. Meanwhile, some are de facto entrants due to some of the top horses from the prior two marquee horse racing showcases opting out of Belmont Park.

Below is a breakdown of the horses to avoid betting on once June 8 arrives.

Note: All horses are considered probable entries, according to Horse Racing Nation.

Incognito

A fifth-place finish at the Peter Pan Stakes isn't exactly going to do much for Incognito's chances at winning. That race also takes place at Belmont Park, so the fact that Incognito couldn't manage a better finish doesn't bode well for his chances in the main event.

According to Equibase.com, Michael J. Luzzi is the typical jockey, and that shouldn't change at the Belmont. Luzzi ranks just 62nd in jockey earnings this season after finishing 77th in 2012.

The Peter Pan Stakes marked Incognito's maiden race away from Aqueduct Racetrack, which is the site of his only win. He was a 5-to-1 morning-line bet, which was third in the field, per Horse Racing Nation.

Trainer Kiaran A. McLaughlin won the Belmont in 2006 with Jazir, but based on the very minimal resume of Incognito, it seems like another triumph in the Test of Champions isn't feasible this time around.

Code West

Bob Baffert has had an uncharacteristically quiet Triple Crown campaign, and that should continue for the legendary trainer. Code West finished in second place at one of the allowance races at Churchill Downs, and ultimately wasn't in the Run for the Roses. 

It's typically unwise to count out Baffert, but after Govenor Charlie's lackluster eighth place in a nine-horse field at Pimlico, an exception can be made.

What is working in Code West's favor is that jockey Rosie Napravnik—who rode Mylute to fifth at the Kentucky Derby and third at the Preakness—will get the mount, per HRTV on Twitter:

As mentioned before, the trainer-jockey combo can't be dismissed. Joel Rosario was the best jockey in 2013 even before his victory in Louisville with Orb, and that gave Lexington native Shug McGaughey his first Kentucky Derby win.

The Hall of Fame tandem of trainer D. Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens combined to make the second-longest shot Oxbow cross the finish first in Baltimore.

As strong as Napravnik is, she is not quite on the level of Rosario or Stevens, but is well on her way. She will get a Triple Crown victory in the next few years—just not on this occasion. Not aboard a horse with zero wins this season.

Always In A Tiz

Ever since a debut win in 2012 at the Saratoga Stakes, where he beat the likes of Revolutionary and Clawback, it has been nothing but backward movement for Always in a Tiz.

Horse Racing Nation lists Always In A Tiz as the lowest-rated horse in the Belmont, and perhaps there's a reason for it. The best I can discern is that three-time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel mounted him in the Grade I Wood Memorial Stakes that Verrazano won—and finished ninth.

David Grening of The Daily Racing Form reports that David Cohen will ride the horse in the 145th Belmont:

Talk about a severe underdog. Always In A Tiz simply hasn't shown the requisite endurance to be able to hang tough on a 1.5-mile track such as Belmont Park, and has not found the winners circle since that wonderful debut.

There is talent buried somewhere within this horse, but it's far from a safe bet for him to finish in the money in the Run for the Carnations.