Kentucky Derby 2013: Projecting How Top Performers Will Fare at Preakness Stakes

With Orb winning the 2013 Kentucky Derby, it’s already time to start looking ahead to the Preakness Stakes.

This prestigious event at Pimlico Race Course will present an opportunity for 13 horses to dethrone the Run for the Roses champion, while Orb looks to defend his title and position himself for a Triple Crown attempt at Belmont in early June.

While the field isn’t officially set for the 2013 Preakness quite yet, there’s a solid chance that Orb makes an appearance in Baltimore on May 18. The other two contenders that hit the board—Golden Soul and Revolutionary—may not, but it's worth predicting their outcomes in case they decide to compete.

Let’s take a look at how these three colts could fare in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

*All odds courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com

Golden Soul

After going off at 34-1, hardly anyone predicted Golden Soul to remain in contention down the stretch of the Derby.

However, with the weather conditions turning the 10-furlong run under the Twin Spires into a slog through the mud, this colt was able to capitalize.

It was quite a lucky finish, as Golden Soul was an alternate up until a few late scratches in the week leading up to the Derby and had only won once in the prep races leading up to the Run for the Roses.

I highly doubt trainer Dallas Stewart will be able to get the same sort of success out of this thoroughbred, especially if it’s a sunny, clear day at Pimlico Race Course on May 18.

Golden Soul's less-than-ideal speed will certainly hurt at Preakness, which will be a 9.5-furlong sprint and the shortest of the Triple Crown races. Barring another rainy event where anything goes, expect this colt to finish near the back of the pack.

Prediction: 10th

 

Revolutionary

Revolutionary was one of the favorites at post time, but jockey Calvin Borel simply couldn’t ride the rail to victory, as he had done three times in the past six years (2007, 2009, 2010).

Instead, the tandem finished a few lengths off the lead and had to settle for a show, which certainly didn’t disappoint some bettors—but let many others down that wagered on this colt and his famous jockey to win.

For those that followed his prep career, it wasn’t such a surprising result. Prior to finally winning his maiden in late December of 2012, Revolutionary hit the board in his first three races and could not find a way to break through.

While he won the Louisiana Derby and Withers Stakes just prior to the Kentucky Derby, this Todd Pletcher-trained horse doesn’t seem to have what it takes to consistently cross the finish line first, especially against top-tier competition.

He’s born to hit the board and should be a great bet to place or show come Preakness. I surmise he’ll be right in the thick of things before faltering down the stretch and finishing a length behind this next contender.

Prediction: Place

 

Orb

For the first time in five years, the odds-on favorite was adorned with the blanket of roses at the conclusion of the “Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.”

It was a much-deserved win for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, who suffered numerous heartbreaks in six prior attempts at this race. Now he’s going to try his luck during the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans, another Triple Crown event from which McGaughey is lacking a trophy.

Fortunately, he has the perfect colt to accomplish this feat, as Orb should easily capture the second jewel of the Triple Crown in two weeks.

His epic run through the muddy track at Churchill Downs was only a small taste of what he can do, especially with ideal conditions expected at Pimlico Race Track for the Preakness Stakes.

The race shouldn’t even be close after the turn, as Orb will use his breakaway speed and elite endurance to win by a length or more.

Prediction: Win

 

2013 Kentucky Derby Results

Place	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Post
1	Orb	Joel Rosario	Claude R. McGaughey III	16
2	Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	4
3	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	3
4	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	5
5	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	6
6	Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	2
7	Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	11
8	Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	17
9	Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	15
10	Giant Finish	Jose L. Espinoza	Anthony W. Dutrow	7
11	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	9
12	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	10
13	Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	19
14	Verrazano	John R. Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	14
15	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa, Jr.	12
16	Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	18
17	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	8
18	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	20
19	Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova II	13