Orb Is Bad Value Bet to Make History as Triple Crown Winner

I'm not here to play devil's advocate, and I'm not here to pull a First Take by "embracing debate." This isn't meant to be incendiary nor is it meant to draw a pity click from your cursor. I say this because it's the truth, and it needs to be said:

Please, for the love of God, don't bet on Orb to win the Triple Crown.

This isn't to say it can't be done. It can. And if any horse in the field has the legs to pull it off, Orb is the clear-as-day choice. But to wager on him given the current odds is an exercise in gambling amateurism and a very easy way to lose your money.

After Saturday's Kentucky Derby, gambling expert Dave Tuley—an occasional ESPN.com contributor—tweeted the following odds from Vegas' Wynn Casino:

For those non-degenerates among us: +240 is the equivalent of 2.4-1. For every dollar you put down, you win 2.4 dollars back. On the other hand, -280 is the favored amount, requiring $2.80 in order to make one dollar in return.

So yes, Orb is getting positive odds to win the Triple Crown. But that is only semantics. Don't let the sports books fool you by acting like they're doing you a favor. I guarantee they aren't. Given the history of the Triple Crown and given the fickle nature of horse racing results, the number they're offering is borderline robbery.

Let's start with some basics: There have only been 11 Triple Crown winners in the history of Thoroughbred Racing and none since 1978. The past 34 years have all ended without the feat being accomplished. 

By that calculation, shouldn't you be getting something in the realm of 35-1 odds to bet on a Triple Crown happening? It would, after all, be the one time in the past 35 years that it happened. That's technically what the odds are supposed to reflect.

A line of +240 indicates that a Triple Crown happens every two or three years—two if you round properly. And don't talk yourself into the flawed logic of "Orb is already one-third of the way there."

Newsflash, folks: A horse has won the Kentucky Derby in all 34 of the previous years, too. One horse has always managed to be 33 percent there, and zero of those horses have managed to capitalize.

Listen: I like Orb as a horse. I like him a lot. He was impressive in the run-up to Saturday, he was impressive on Saturday, and I expect him to be impressive after Saturday. But he was a (properly valued) 6-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby.

Did he really do well enough to alter his odds so drastically that you'd bet one-third the payout on him to win two high-stake races?

I won't bite, and I don't think you should either. For God's sake, if you wait it out long enough and bet at right time, you might be able to find something near 2.4-1 on him to win just the Preakness. Why would you jump the gun now to get him to win twice?

Good betting is smart betting, and smart betting has one steadfast principle: Always find the best value. The lines being offered at present moment are reactionary; they're hoping people who watched this afternoon will bite, betting with their hearts instead of their eyes.

Do yourself a favor by not being that sap.