Kentucky Derby Picks 2013: How Weather Would Affect Order of Finish

The 2013 Kentucky Derby was already considered one of the most exciting events of the year, but the added intrigue of rain throughout Derby Day (h/t Weather.com) has horse-racing fans pondering how Mother Nature will affect the finishing order.

The wet track can make the slow-starting horses struggle out of the gate even more than normal, while those that have the experience of running or even winning on wet tracks will now have the definitive advantage Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs.

While some dark-horse contenders will thrive under the wet conditions of the track, many of the favorites will struggle to get their footing and miss their shot at glory.

This is the predicted finish with the rain taken into account and the horses that will feel the impact of the weather most.

All betting information via Bovada and all stats courtesy of Horse Racing Nation.

Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.

When: Saturday, May 4

Post Time: 6:24 p.m. ET

Purse: $2.18 million

TV: NBC

Live stream: NBC Sports

Complete Projections with Weather Variable

Finish	Horse	Post	Jockey	Odds
1	Verrazano	14	John Velazquez	5-1
2	Overanalyze	9	Rafael Bejarano	12-1
3	Oxbow	2	Gary Stevens	25-1
4	Itsmyluckyday	12	Elvis Trujillo	12-1
5	Goldencents	8	Kevin Krigger	8-1
6	Orb	16	Joel Rosario	5-1
7	Normandy Invasion	5	Javier Castellano	10-1
8	Vyjack	20	Garrett Gomez	18-1
9	Palace Malice	10	Mike Smith	25-1
10	Revolutionary	3	Calvin Borel	8-1
11	Java's War	19	Julien Leparoux	15-1
12	Will Take Charge	17	Jon Court	20-1
13	Mylute	6	Rosie Napravnik	20-1
14	Charming Kitten	15	Edgar Prado	30-1
15	Golden Soul	4	Robby Albarado	50-1
16	Frac Daddy	18	Victor Lebron	30-1
17	Falling Sky	13	Luis Saez	50-1
18	Giant Finish	7	Jose Espinoza	50-1
19	Lines of Battle	11	Ryan Moore	30-1

Odds as of 2:20 p.m. ET, May 4

How Weather Would Impact These Top Horses

Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack

At 12-1 and 18-1 odds respectively, Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack are getting little love at the betting window—both are starting to receive some of the credit they deserve—but these horses will be difference-makers in the 2013 Derby.

Each has experience on wet surfaces, and each has won in less-than-ideal conditions.

While Itsmyluckyday is a colt that would be a safe bet to show, Vyjack is a gelding that wasn’t expected to be much of a threat on Derby day.

If Vyjack can get out of the gates fast—stuck in the 20th post position to start the race—there is no question that the experience on a rain-soaked course will put both Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack into contention.

Orb

While the horse racing world is all in on Orb—the once morning-line favorite is now at 5-1 odds—the unflattering track conditions are horrible news for the bona fide Triple Crown contender.

Despite winning each of his last four races coming into Saturday’s big race, the Claude McGaughey-trained horse has not only never won on a wet track before, but also has never even raced on a wet track (h/t New York Times).

There is no discounting the momentum the horse and his jockey, Joel Rosario, have created, including a huge win at the Florida Derby, but the lack of experience in tough weather conditions makes a wager on Orb a risk not worth taking.

As intriguing as the 5-1 odds are for a horse that has won four straight, don’t fall into this trap.

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