Kentucky Derby 2013 Post Positions: Best Possible Slots for Long Shots

The field for the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby appears to be as deep as ever, with a number of horses having a legitimate chance to win. When horses are this close in terms of talent, picking a winner can be like splitting hairs. Because of that, post position certainly comes into play.

Starting spots were determined by random draw on Wednesday, and while most of the top contenders came away unscathed, a few solid horses were put in tough predicaments. At the same time, though, some longer shots drew advantageous gates and could potentially be a threat.

Here are three long shots that landed in advantageous situations and could make a run on Saturday. Also included is the starting order, current odds and a listing of how many times horses have won the Derby from each post position.

Starting Order

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Black Onyx	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	SCR
2	Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	30-1
3	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	10-1
4	Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	50-1
5	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	12-1
6	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	15-1
7	Giant Finish	Jose L. Espinoza	Anthony W. Dutrow	50-1
8	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	5-1
9	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	15-1
10	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	20-1
11	Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
12	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa, Jr.	15-1
13	Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova II	50-1
14	Verrazano	John R. Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	4-1
15	Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	20-1
16	Orb	Joel Rosario	Claude R. McGaughey III	7/2
17	Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	20-1
18	Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	50-1
19	Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	15-1
20	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	15-1

*Odds via KentuckyDerby.com.

Best Spots for Long Shots

Palace Malice (10)

Generally speaking, the best place to be in a field as crowded as the Kentucky Derby's is somewhere in the middle. While the bulk of the winners over the years have come from the first few post positions, that has more to do with the fact that far fewer horses used to run in the race. In a 19-horse field such as this one, it is much easier to get off to a good start in the middle, so Palace Malice is in a great spot at No. 10.

Outside of the first five gates, No. 10 has been the winningest spot in the Kentucky Derby with 10 triumphs. While that definitely plays into Palace Malice's favor, so does the fact that he is a strong horse with a Hall of Fame jockey in Mike Smith and one of the best trainers in the business in Todd Pletcher. Also, if the track is as sloppy as expected, Palace Malice has the pedigree necessary to deal with it.

"

Starting to rain a little. Just got some video from my dad on how to handle it. #curlin youtube.com/watch?v=5Fd5BB…

— Palace Malice (@PalaceMalice) May 4, 2013"

On Palace Malice's official Twitter account, a YouTube video of his father, Curlin, winning the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic on a muddy track was posted. It is generally thought that the ability to race effectively in mud is a trait that is passed down through the pedigree, so Palace Malice definitely has a fighting chance on Saturday.

Giant Finish (7)

One of the biggest long shots in the field heading into the Kentucky Derby is Giant Finish at No. 7. Not only was he the last horse to qualify for the Derby, but he was also the last one to arrive at Churchill Downs. If things break correctly for him during the Run for the Roses, however, he could very well be the first horse to cross the finish line on Saturday.

Eight horses have won from the No. 7 spot, so Giant Finish certainly has history on his side even if few are giving him a chance. Giant Finish will be guided by a veteran jockey in Jose L. Espinoza, and while Espinoza has never won a Triple Crown race, he has had plenty of success and will be determined to finish first on Saturday.

Also, according to Julie June Stewart of The New York Times, Giant Finish has looked relaxed leading up to the race.

It's easy for a horse to fly under the radar in such a sizable field, and that is what Giant Finish has done to this point. His post position essentially ensures that he won't get lost in the shuffle early, though, so he should be in the mix for much of the race. Perhaps he doesn't have the kick necessary to get to the front, but he'll likely be within striking distance.

Normandy Invasion (5)

He may not be as long of a shot as the other horses mentioned in this article, but Normandy Invasion has largely flown under the radar to this point with 12-1 odds. Normandy Invasion will start in the magical No. 5 spot, however, which has produced the most Derby winners with 12. While No. 5 hasn't been the best post position in recent years, Normandy Invasion is good enough to make it work.

Normandy Invasion performed admirably at the Wood Memorial, which was his last race prior to the Kentucky Derby. He finished second behind one of the top Derby contenders in Verrazano and he managed to give him a run for his money. Despite that showing, there haven't been many experts picking Normandy Invasion, but ESPN college football analyst and horse racing enthusiast Mark May is firmly on board.

There are several horses with a legitimate shot to win this race and Normandy Invasion is definitely in that group. If there is any apprehension about going with a highly touted horse like Goldencents, Verrazano or Orb, Normandy Invasion makes a lot of sense at his current odds, and he could ultimately pay big dividends.

All-Time Post Position Winners

PP	Winners	Most Recent
1	12	Ferdinand - 1986
2	9	Affirmed - 1978
3	8	Real Quiet - 1998
4	11	Super Saver - 2010
5	12	Funny Cide - 2003
6	6	Sea Hero - 1993
7	8	Street Sense - 2007
8	10	Mine That Bird - 2009
9	4	Riva Ridge - 1972
10	10	Giacomo - 2005
11	3	Winning Colors - 1988
12	3	Canonero II - 1971
13	4	Smarty Jones - 2004
14	2	Carry Back - 1961
15	3	Fusaichi Pegasus - 2000
16	4	Animal Kingdom - 2011
17	0	-
18	1	Gato Del Sol - 1982
19	1	I'll Have Another - 2012
20	2	Big Brown - 2008

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