Kentucky Derby Predictions: Horses That Will Falter at Churchill Downs

The 2013 Kentucky Derby will prove far too difficult for certain horses at Churchill Downs.

Mesh the elements of it as the Triple Crown's first leg, track length and competition level and this derby separate the great from the good.

Post position also plays a strong role, because getting ahead of the group early develops as a key advantage. To a certain degree, it impacts more than the odds.

Note: Odds and post positions are current as of 12:45 p.m. ET and courtesy of Kentuckyderby.com.

Giant Finish: Post 7, 38/1

Already facing steep odds, Giant Finish did get a good post spot in terms of competing early on.

The downside is having Mylute (Post Six) and Goldencents (Post Eight) on either side of him. In addition, Normandy Invasion sits in Post Five and Overanalyze resides in Post Nine. That's four contenders with much better odds surrounding Giant Finish.

So, unless he bolts out faster than lightning, it will be difficult reaching the front of the pack. Despite taking third at Turfway Park in March, the derby is a longer track with way better competition.

Jockey Jose Espinoza has great experience, but this is his first Kentucky Derby. By the same token, Espinoza has yet to win a Breeders' Cup race and last ranked in the Top 100 for earnings in 2005.

Itsmyluckyday: Post 12, 9/1

Even with decent odds, Itsmyluckyday doesn't have the best of positions.

On his interior, Overanalyze in Post Nine is the nearest threat. Just on his outside, though, is a tough contender in Verrazano (Post 14) who has won a Grade I and II race this year. Itsmyluckyday did win Holy Bull in January, but that was a Grade III competition.

Don't expect Itsmyluckyday to be near the front pack for long, either. The better challengers on the inside have more stamina and are just as quick out of the gates. On Friday, Ed Gray of the Boston Herald sums up the horse regarding stamina down the stretch:

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Favored on the basis of his impressive victories in the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes, Itsmyluckyday moved to the lead and opened up a length lead in mid-stretch, only to be overtaken by a surging Orb, who drew off to score by 23⁄4 lengths.

"

No matter the top speed, Churchill Downs is too long to solely rely on speed out of the gates. Closing out is just as important.

Frac Daddy: Post 18, 23/1

Frac Daddy got hit with a double whammy in terms of odds and post position.

Obviously 23-to-1 odds aren't great, so the field is already working against him. At the same time, Java's War sits in Post 19, as well as Orb in Post 16. Orb is among the favorites and Java's War has jockey Julien Leparoux, a veteran with countless wins and five Breeders' Cup victories.

As for Frac Daddy, jockey Victor Lebron won Keeneland on April 19, but that was only 6.5 furlongs.

Other jockeys enter with much more proven experience and success, which only makes this contest tougher. Now Frac Daddy has the ability to slip past Orb and pull ahead of Java's War from the get go; however, the overall field of talent is far too grand for him to compete for the top spot.