Kentucky Derby 2013 Contenders: Favorites That Will Break Your Heart

Sometimes you're wise to bet with the favorite.

Louisville was the top seed in the NCAA tournament and went on to win an impressive national title. Miami was the favorite in last year's NBA playoffs and rolled to LeBron's first championship. The favorites are favorites for a reason; they're people, teams or things you want to have your money on.

But horse racing is a little different. One race, less than three minutes, whoever finishes first takes the crown. There's no series or quarters or halves to extend the sample size. Over time, sure, the favored horses would rise while the outliers would regress. But in one, providential running, it would be anomalous to see all chalk.

Take last year, for instance. The 2012 Kentucky Derby saw 6-1 Gemologist, the third-favorite horse in the field, finish a pitiful 16th. Union Rags (9-2) finished out of the money too.

And that's the rule, not the exception. There will always be a flop. So here are two favored horses that may disappoint you this year.

*All odds via KentuckyDerby.com

Goldencents (5-1)

I could pontificate for 300 words about not betting favorites at the Kentucky Derby. But the numbers tell a better tale, so I'll let them talk for me.

Check out the past four morning favorites at Churchill Downs:

Year	Horse	Finish
2012	Bodemister	2nd
2011	Dialed In	8th
2010	Lookin' At Lucky	6th
2009	Friesan Fire	6th

See what I'm saying?

Only one of the past four favorites even managed to place with the others all falling out of the top-quarter finishers. Churchill Downs has eaten top favorites alive the past few years, making stars of longshots like I'll Have Another and Animal Kingdom instead.

Goldencents is a fine horse, a grand steed, a worthy recipient of his odds. But that doesn't make him a smart play.

Especially for the win.

Verrazano (11-1)

It pains me me to pick against a horse named Verrazano. As a frequent traveler of the eponymous bridge, and a history geek who admires the eponymous explorer, Verrazano is without a doubt my favorite name in the field.

I'm just not buying the hype, and I'm not alone.

Despite boasting 4-1 odds, second best in the post, Verrazano has soured a number of racing experts. Well, maybe not soured, per se, but hardly inspired. All four of the pundits on KentuckyDerby.com predict Verrazano to finish outside the top three, rendering him a fruitless bet. 

Of course, predictions like that are usually fruitless endeavors, but they're worth taking into consideration as trends. Just like there's a reason Verrazano is rated so highly—he's undefeated in four career starts—there's also a reason he's not projected to show. He hasn't proven himself worth trusting.

The upside is there. Verrazano could win this race and nobody, myself included, would bat an eyelash. But I prefer safe over sexy. And Verrazano seems a little too boom-bust for my palate.