Kentucky Derby 2013 Lineup: Definitive Guide to Picking a Winner

One thing that makes the Triple Crown races, and more specifically the Kentucky Derby, special is the fact everybody becomes a professional handicapper for a day. Sometimes, picking the winner out of such a talented field is like finding a needle in the haystack.

There are no shortage of contenders in the 2013 group, starting with morning-line favorite Orb. Black Onyx is one horse that won't get a chance to run for the roses after being scratched on Friday. That leaves 19 derby hopefuls to run in Saturday's big race.

Let's take a look at the entire lineup of horses for the race, along with the opening odds. It's followed by a breakdown of the 139th Kentucky Derby and a prediction for which horse will become etched in history by winning the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Race Lineup

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Black Onyx	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	SCR
2	Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	30-1
3	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	10-1
4	Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	50-1
5	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	12-1
6	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	15-1
7	Giant Finish	Jose Espinoza	Anthony Dutrow	50-1
8	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	5-1
9	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	15-1
10	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	20-1
11	Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
12	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa Jr.	15-1
13	Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova II	50-1
14	Verrazano	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	4-1
15	Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	20-1
16	Orb	Joel Rosario	Claude McGaughey III	7-2
17	Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	20-1
18	Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	50-1
19	Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	15-1
20	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	15-1

Predicting Kentucky Derby Winner

As suggested by the video of his victory in the Santa Anita Derby, Goldencents is the pick. Before taking a deeper dive into his résumé, let's examine why he gets the nod over the other top contenders.

While favored Orb is on four-race winning streak, his run in the Florida Derby left a lot to be desired. He emerged over a marginal field, but he didn't flash the front-end speed he's going to need in the derby starting from gate No. 16.

He also started his career with three straight subpar outings. He didn't break his maiden until the fourth time out and has only flashed truly elite form a couple times in his career. The talent is there. Too many question marks about consistency, though.

Verrazano is undefeated in four career races, which is causing him to generate a lot of buzz. In reality, that's just as much of a negative as it is a positive because he's never been forced to handle adversity. There will be plenty of it in such a large field.

What if he gets closed out during the early dash for the rail or is forced to keep up with a lightning pace a horse like Mylute could set? Those types of concerns haven't been addressed because he's had so little experience. He could overcome it, but it's no guarantee.

Then there's Revolutionary. He's another horse who overcame some early struggles to earn a spot in the Derby. The mile-and-a-quarter distance is going to be a major issue, though. He hasn't illustrated enough late pace to think he'll have the necessary kick to hold off 18 other horses.

That brings us back to Goldencents. Everything has fallen into place perfectly for the horse who's partially owned by Louisville head basketball coach Rick Pitino.

He will start from one of the ideal gates, No. 8, which has produced eight winners––tied for the second highest total––since 1930. He's coming off a terrific showing in the Santa Anita Derby. And his trainer, Doug O'Neill, guided I'll Have Another to a Kentucky Derby triumph last year.

Speed is Goldencents' biggest weapon, and he's shown the ability to use it both early in the race and late in the race, whenever jockey Kevin Krigger sees fit. Speaking of Krigger, his ability to handle the talented colt has been spot on.

The colt had one bad race, the San Felipe Stakes in March, and bounced right back to have his best showing to date in the Santa Anita Derby. That's the overcoming of adversity factor Verrazano hasn't been forced to prove.

It all adds up to a Kentucky Derby victory for Goldencents.