Kentucky Derby 2013 Post Positions: How Slotting Will Impact Saturday's Race

The 139th running of the Kentucky Derby is all queued up for Saturday. The post positions are set. Now, there's nothing to it but to, as they say, do it.

In the meantime, though, there are plenty of tea leaves to be read, including how the horses are slotted. In a shorter race like the Kentucky Derby, outside positions are typically undesirable because it means longer distances to travel.  

It stands to reason that the higher you are slotted, the better chance you have. History certainly indicates as much, with 31 of the 42 derby winners emerging from positions 1-10. One exception here is that the No. 1 slot makes a horse and rider vulnerable to being boxed in. No horse has won the derby from the No. 1 slot since 1988.

In recent years, however, slotting appears to be less of a rock-solid predictor, at least on paper. Last year's winner, I'll Have Another, started from the 19th position. In 2011, Animal Kingdom won from the 16th slot, and Big Brown took the roses in 2008 from slot No. 20.

These recent exceptions offer hope for Orb, which drew the 16th slot but is nevertheless the current favorite with 7-2 odds. The same goes for Verrazano, which sits in slot 14 and has the second-best odds currently at 4-1.

How does the field look in the first 10 positions? The biggest favorite in that group is Goldencents in the eighth position at 5-1 (it also doesn't hurt that Doug O'Neill, last year's derby-winning trainer, is the trainer for Goldencents). Most of the others are significant long shots. Black Onyx, in the No. 1 position, is a 50-1 shot. 

It seems anything can happen in a short race like the Derby, especially when you have a fast horse that is running well. That's probably why oddsmakers didn't seem to mind too much when Orb and Verrazano drew outside slots. Race fans and viewers probably shouldn't either.