Kentucky Derby Favorites: Projecting How Top Horses Will Finish

It's long, long road.

For many, the hopes of reaching the Kentucky Derby starting gate began in 2010 when these three-year-olds were born. They were weaned, broke, trained and, when the money was down, proved to be the cream of their crop. Twenty out of some 27,000 foals born.

I've always maintained that anyone can eliminate about half the field from contention right off the bat. Then, with the appropriate bank roll, you can cover yourself with the 10 most likely contenders.

I've combed through race replays and come to some solid conclusions about where I think the most competitive horses will finish.

Here's what I think the favorites (as provided by KentuckyDerby.com) will do, and may you have the bank roll to fund a beautiful afternoon.  

Overanalyze

Current Odds: 15-1

Post Position: 9

Where He'll Finish: Out of the Top 10

The Arkansas Derby, Overanalyze's latest win, looked impressive. Overanalyze drew away but when you look at the time—1:51.94—that's like a sprinter running the 100 meters in 11 seconds. It's slow and he kicked clear of the runners in this field (so, anybody coming into the Derby out of the Arkansas Derby, to me, is an automatic rule-out.)

Overanalyze ran just four lengths off the pace in the Arkansas Derby, right in the mix. He'll likely run in that same position in Kentucky. The difference, sadly for Overanalyze, is the speed will be much classier Saturday. He'll get swept up close to the front but won't be able to hang when the hoof meets the homestretch.

Where he finishes outside the top 10 is anybody's guess, but I can't see him being with 10 lengths of the winner.

Vyjack

Current Odds: 45-1

Post Position: 20

Where He'll Finish: Ninth

Only one horse has ever won from Post 20 and that was Big Brown in 2008. Problem for Vyjack? He's not Big Brown (that we know of). Big Brown was a freak. Vyjack has yet to prove his freakdom.

Breaking from the far outside means that Vyjack will likely be the pace setter in the Derby. His jockey will have to gun him for the clubhouse turn to avoid being strung out wide. That will come at a cost.

Vyjack will burn precious reserves just to avoid being five or six-wide in the first quarter of a mile. He'll start to fade between the 3/8ths pole and the quarter pole, but will fight on because that's what this colt does. That's what he did in the Wood Memorial while finishing third behind Verrazano.

He'll be gassed in the final quarter and will either finish out of the top 10, or hang on for a respectable ninth. The post kills him.

Mylute

Latest Odds: 14-1

Post Position: 6

Where He'll Finish: Eighth

Mylute is another deep closer in this field. The problem with closers is that they rely on a very fast pace up front. My feeling is the pace on Saturday is not going to be as hot as we've seen in year's past. As a result, when the closers make their run, the horses on the front end won't be decelerating enough.

Mylute's Louisiana Derby showed how quickly he can accelerate when asked. When he came up to Revolutionary's flank, he hung a bit and couldn't get by.

Mylute is getting a lot of attention because of his jockey, Rosie Napravnik. There may be no jockey with a hotter hand than Napravnik these days. So, like any horse Calvin Borel rides, she drops the odds of the horse because of her talent.

I don't see this colt getting up for a piece and I'd stay clear of him.

Revolutionary

Current Odds: 5-1

Post Position: 3

Where He'll Finish: Seventh

WinStar Farm's Revolutionary will get plenty of action Saturday because of the man in the irons: Calvin Borel.

Borel, recently elected to the Hall of Fame and winner of three Derbys in four years, will take Revolutionary and run him in a straight line to the fence.

The son of War Pass is a versatile horse and will be able to take the requisite dirt in the face and still have gas to run late. He won the Louisiana Derby and turned away a formidable foe in Mylute.

But like many of the horses here, his last win was very slow. Being down on the rail, he'll face traffic problems and if these jockeys have learned anything since 2007 (when Borel won his first Derby) it's that Borel will be looking to squeeze through on the fence. They know better than to give Borel any space larger than a vanilla wafer.

Revolutionary won't hit the board. He probably deserves to be 15-1 or 20-1. You can thank Borel for the underlay price.

Verrazano

Current Odds: 11-1

Post Position: 14

Where He'll Finish: Sixth

The post-position gods were on the side of Verrazano. Post 14 is a dream because it's the last post before the attachment of the auxiliary gate. Meaning? He's got a ton of room to his right taking some uncertainty of the mass start out of it.

He broke like a bottle rocket in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial and jockey John Velazquez will have his pick of where he wants to settle Verrazano. He'll be in the first flight, maybe the second, as he did in the Wood, but won't benefit from such a soft pace as he did back at Aqueduct.

He's unbeaten, and he'll be able to run his race, but will he be too gassed turning for home? Wood winners haven't fared too well in Kentucky and I see him getting passed by several of the closers pushing Verrazano off the board and making a bridge jumper out of many.

Normandy Invasion

Current Odds: 8-1

Post Position: 5

Where He'll Finish: Fifth

There's a horse every year that finishes second in one of the shorter preps that's closing gangbusters. The turf writers start piping, "He wants more distance!" "Give him an extra furlong and he wins!"

But he won't.

Deep closers rarely win the Derby. They just don't. And when they do, it's one of those statistical anomalies akin to UFO sightings and perfect games.

He will be running late, and he will pass anywhere from 10 to 15 horses from the 3/8ths pole on, but he won't benefit by being in the third to last flight in this race.

His post position is great, though. War Emblem won from there in 2002 and Eight Belles finished second to Big Brown in 2008 from there. Jesus would have finished second to Big Brown in 2008.

Normandy Invasion needs pace—a lot of it—and I'm afraid he just won't get it and, as a result, he'll have a hard time breaking the superfecta.

Will Take Charge

Latest Odds: 29-1

Post Position: 17

Where He'll Finish: Fourth

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas brings his Rebel Stakes winner, Will Take Charge, into the Derby off a seven-week lay off. This horse shows a ton of heart down the stretch and that's where he's going to do his running.

Will Take Charge breaks from Post 17, where no horse has won before, but stands to be a factor late in the race.

Given that he breaks from the far outside, expect him to be in the third flight of horses, that third quarter of the field heading into the clubhouse turn. Here, he'll take a ton of dirt in the face and will have to find comfort amidst a veritable flurry of horses, hooves and dust (maybe mud, who knows in Louisville?).

As the pace begins to slow on the front end, Will Take Charge will be getting started. Expect him to get up for a piece, and at 20-1, that will inflate exotics.

Itsmyluckyday

Current Odds: 11-1

Post Position: 12

Where He'll Finish: Third

Back in 2009, there was a horse named Musket Man and he lacked glamour, pizazz, but he was a lock for third no matter where he ran. He was good, just not great. Itsmyluckyday is Musket Man.

Itsmyluckyday drew a nice post in 12, right in the middle of the field. Due to the way they load the gate, he'll be getting early and will have to stand there for a minute or so.

He promises to be in the first flight of horses vying for the lead. Vyjack, if he knows what's good for him, will run like a rattlesnake is after him from Post 20 and if Itsmyluckyday breaks sharp, he'll have a nice go of it heading into the clubhouse turn.

That puts him in position to maximize his potential. He's not the best, but pretty darn good.

Orb

Current Odds: 6-1

Post Position: 16

Where He'll Finish: Second

Boy, this is going to be some finish, let me tell you. When they get to race ridin', Orb will be bombing late, and I mean bombing.

He's got tactical speed—that ability to ration it early on the race—and a turn-of-foot you rarely see in a horse. Maybe not since Goldikova in the 2007 Breeders Cup Mile (If you don't want to watch the whole thing, go to minute 1:26 to the finish. Amazing).

It's going to be Orb and Goldencents all the way to wire. Orb might be well-rested enough to catch a tiring Goldencents, then again, Goldencents may have enough in his reserves to kick clear.

There's a reason they call it the best two minutes in sports. Get a mint julep and buckle up.

Goldencents

Current Odds: 5-1

Post Position: 8

Where He'll Finish: First

Wrote a little bit about this guy already for B/R and I can't see any reason to get off of him now.

There's quite literally nothing not to like about Goldencents. He won his penultimate prep in a time three seconds faster than any of the other winners, he gets the perfect post position and Doug O'Neill, his trainer, won this race a year ago.

I've said this already: This race is his to lose.

He will be in the first flight of horses, assuming, of course, he breaks well. He'll either be on the lead or, if Vyjack swipes it from him, he'll be happy to sit off his flank in second or third and stay out of trouble.

Watch Barbaro's Derby from 2006. That may just be how Goldencents wins this race.