Kentucky Derby 2013 Entries: Underrated Horses with Chance for Success

Orb was installed as the morning-line favorite for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Verrazano, Goldencents and Revolutionary are the other top contenders based on early odds. But there are also some underrated horses that should be in contention.

The 139th running of the storied race features a very deep field, and no horse is without flaws. So it should end up being a very competitive race right down to the wire. And if it's a slow pace, even more horses will be in the mix.

With that in mind, let's examine some of the most overlooked horses in the field with a strong chance of success on Saturday. They aren't carrying the same amount of hype as the top horses named above, but they are names to keep in mind.

Entries

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Black Onyx	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	50-1
2	Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	30-1
3	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	10-1
4	Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	50-1
5	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	12-1
6	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	15-1
7	Giant Finish	Jose Espinoza	Anthony Dutrow	50-1
8	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	5-1
9	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	15-1
10	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	20-1
11	Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
12	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa Jr.	15-1
13	Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova II	50-1
14	Verrazano	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	4-1
15	Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	20-1
16	Orb	Joel Rosario	Claude McGaughey III	7-2
17	Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	20-1
18	Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	50-1
19	Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	15-1
20	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	15-1

Underrated Horses to Watch

Overanalyze

There are two reasons why Overanalyze is being overlooked. First, instead of standing out in any single area, he's just a solid horse across the board. Secondly, he's established a pattern of alternating good and bad starts, and based on that trend he would be due for an off day.

That said, you shouldn't read too much into a trend like that given such a small sample size. A more important note would be the fact he's won four of his seven starts, including his most impressive showing to date in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last time out.

He'll break from the favorable ninth post, which should allow him to establish a safe early pace without having to overrun in order to avoid the outside surge. As long as he does that, there's no reason he can't make a charge as they turn for home.

Palace Malice

A very similar case to Overanalyze. Both horses are trained by Todd Pletcher, who's one of the best in the business, and are best known for their well-rounded ability. He ranks in a tie for fourth with Goldencents in prime power.

He's coming off a strong showing in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. Although he finished second, he handled the distance well, which means he should have no problem handling the mile-and-a-quarter derby. That's a major question mark for other horses.

The other area where he overlaps with Overanalyze is post position. He'll start to his immediate outside at No. 10, which has produced the most winners since 1930. The two horses should remain pretty close throughout the race and be in the mix at the end.

Vyjack

If not for the extreme outside post position (No. 20), Vyjack would be attracting a lot more attention. He won his first four career races and showed he can hang with derby competition by finishing third in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in his last outing.

That race was won by Verrazano with Normandy Invasion finishing second. Vyjack has illustrated good late pace, which will be essential. There's a strong chance he'll have to settle in behind the pack and make up ground late due to the unfavorable post.

The silver lining is that just last year I'll Have Another emerged from the No. 19 gate to win the derby. So while it's not an ideal situation, it's clearly not impossible to overcome. Vyjack has the tools to pull off a similar feat with a good ride from Garrett Gomez.