Kentucky Derby Odds: Best Post Positions Worth Betting on

Not all post positions are created equal in horse racing, and this can be especially true at the Kentucky Derby. The dirt track at Churchill Downs can be unforgivable to horses that get off to bad starts, and where they line up to start the race can impact this dynamic.

Betting lines shifted a bit after the draw on Wednesday, but for the most part the top horses drew favorable posts.

Some horses, like Black Onyx, seem to be doomed to failure from the start after receiving unfavorable draws. Others, like Palace Malice, saw their odds improve after landing favorable post positions.

Of course, last year's winning horse, I'll Have Another, broke down a big barrier by becoming the first horse to win from the No. 19 post, proving that starting position doesn't mean anything. 

Given the right circumstances, any horse can win the Derby from any post. 

That said, there are some posts that have historically been lucky to land. Here's a quick look at the latest odds, courtesy of the NBC Sports broadcast on Wednesday (via WDRB's Steve Andress). I'll highlight a few of the posts worth betting on after the odds.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Current Odds	Tuesday's Odds
1	Black Onyx	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	50-1	33-1
2	Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	30-1	20-1
3	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	10-1	7-1
4	Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	50-1	N/A
5	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	12-1	8-1
6	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	15-1	33-1
7	Giant Finish	Jose L. Espinoza	Anthony W. Dutrow	50-1	N/A
8	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	5-1	7-1
9	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	15-1	40-1
10	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	20-1	33-1
11	Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	30-1	20-1
12	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa, Jr.	15-1	12-1
13	Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova II	50-1	50-1
14	Verrazano	John R. Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	4-1	7-2
15	Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	20-1	66-1
16	Orb	Joel Rosario	Claude R. McGaughey III	7-2	5-1
17	Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	20-1	20-1
18	Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	50-1	33-1
19	Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	15-1	30-1
20	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	15-1	15-1

Normandy Invasion: Post No. 5 (12-1 Odds)

Historically, horses that start from this post have a good chance of finishing in the money. Dullahan finished in third place from this spot last year, and 21.7 percent of all horses starting here finish in the money.

Since 1930 9.6 percent of starters from the No. 3 spot have won. Two horses have won from this spot since 2000, the last being Funny Cide in 2003.

This horse is raring to go, too. 

Normandy Invasion had to be be pulled up with the aid of an outrider during a Thursday practice session after getting a little bit too eager to go full bore, according to BloodHorse.com. According to the report, trainer Chad Brown wasn't concerned. In fact, he seemed to be outright giddy at the fire his horse displayed:

"

After he stood in the gate he wanted out to go out and gallop a little strong, but he pulled up good and came back good. That's him. He's really sharp right now. We're happy. He ended his gallop a little quick, but I'm OK with it.

"

At 12-1 odds, you would be getting a nice return if Normandy Invasion pulled off an upset over the favorites, but as you'll see shortly those horses also drew historically favorable posts.

Goldencents: Post No. 8 (5-1 Odds)

2013 is Rick Pitino's year, and it might get even better on Saturday.

After winning the championship with Louisville's men's basketball program, Pitino's (he's a co-owner) horse Goldencents has drawn one of the most favorable posts at Churchill Downs.

Mine That Bird (2009) and Barbaro (2006) both won from this spot, and 10 horses have won from the No. 8 spot since 1930. 

Of course, it doesn't hurt that this horse was already one of the heavy favorites before the draw took place. Andrew Beyer of the Washington Post is sold on Goldencents winning the race, writing:

"

In Saturday’s Derby, there is a colt whose most recent speed figure towers over his rivals’ and whose running style ought to give him a significant tactical advantage. I’m not going to be distracted by any handicapping subtleties. I’m betting on Goldencents.

"

Of course, it should be pointed out that as one of the favorites, the return on a Goldencents victory won't be as significant as if you had betted on another horse with less favorable odds. That said, winning some money is better than losing, right?

Orb: Post No. 16 (7-2 Odds)

Four winners have come from the No. 16 spot in the past 18 years—the best winning percentage of any other spot in the same period of time. Animal Kingdom was the last horse to do it, just two years ago in 2011.

Richard Rosenblatt of the AP made note of this on Twitter after the draw on Wednesday:

In addition to this favorable draw, Orb comes into this race on a four-race winning streak and was considered to be a heavy favorite to win for weeks leading up to the draw. 

Trainer Shug McGaughey III was pleased with the draw, according to ESPN News Services: "I think (from that post position), we'll be solid. Kind of hold our position, maybe try to creep in a little bit more around the first turn, and he can kind of watch what's going on down on the inside."

Even though Orb is the betting favorite to win, given the favorable circumstances you'd be crazy not to put a bit of money down on this horse for Saturday's race.

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