Kentucky Derby Odds: Latest Line Trends Heading into Race
The Kentucky Derby is one of the most anticipated horse races in the world, and there's never any shortage of betting action heading into The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.
This year's favorite heading into the post position draw was Verrazano, but things have changed slightly at the top since the draw was announced on Wednesday.
The latest trends show Orb as the favorite with Verrazano coming in a close second. Both horses are being given short odds to win the race.
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These lines will undoubtedly change before the race on Saturday—especially considering there's a storm rolling into Louisville that could muddy up the track at Churchill Downs.
With that being said, here are the latest odds, which were announced after the draw on NBC Sports (via WDRB's Steve Andress), compared to the future odds posted at Bovada.com before the draw.
After this list, I'll analyze why a few of the odds changed from Tuesday to Wednesday.
| 1 | Black Onyx | Joe Bravo | Kelly Breen | 50-1 | 33-1 |
| 2 | Oxbow | Gary Stevens | D. Wayne Lukas | 30-1 | 20-1 |
| 3 | Revolutionary | Calvin Borel | Todd Pletcher | 10-1 | 7-1 |
| 4 | Golden Soul | Robby Albarado | Dallas Stewart | 50-1 | N/A |
| 5 | Normandy Invasion | Javier Castellano | Chad Brown | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | Mylute | Rosie Napravnik | Tom Amoss | 15-1 | 33-1 |
| 7 | Giant Finish | Jose L. Espinoza | Anthony W. Dutrow | 50-1 | N/A |
| 8 | Goldencents | Kevin Krigger | Doug O'Neill | 5-1 | 7-1 |
| 9 | Overanalyze | Rafael Bejarano | Todd Pletcher | 15-1 | 40-1 |
| 10 | Palace Malice | Mike Smith | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 | 33-1 |
| 11 | Lines of Battle | Ryan Moore | Aidan O'Brien | 30-1 | 20-1 |
| 12 | Itsmyluckyday | Elvis Trujillo | Eddie Plesa, Jr. | 15-1 | 12-1 |
| 13 | Falling Sky | Luis Saez | John Terranova II | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| 14 | Verrazano | John R. Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| 15 | Charming Kitten | Edgar Prado | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 | 66-1 |
| 16 | Orb | Joel Rosario | Claude R. McGaughey III | 7-2 | 5-1 |
| 17 | Will Take Charge | Jon Court | D. Wayne Lukas | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| 18 | Frac Daddy | Victor Lebron | Kenny McPeek | 50-1 | 33-1 |
| 19 | Java's War | Julien Leparoux | Kenny McPeek | 15-1 | 30-1 |
| 20 | Vyjack | Garrett Gomez | Rudy Rodriguez | 15-1 | 15-1 |
Revolutionary: Post No. 3 (10-1 Odds)
Before the draw, Revolutionary was considered to be equal to Goldencents, as both horses were given 7-1 odds to win on Tuesday.
A poor draw, however, has caused Revolutionary's odds to increase.
It's been 15 years since a horse has won from the No. 3 post. Real Quiet was the last horse to do so. Furthermore, the last time a horse placed in the money from the No. 3 post was in 2004, when Lion Heart finished in second place.
Running next to long-shot horses Oxbow and Golden Soul, Revolutionary will be competing against lesser competition than the other favorites. Verrazano, Goldencents and Orb will all be running more toward the middle, where most of the speed is located in this upcoming race.
Charming Kitten: Post No. 15 (20-1 Odds)
How does a horse go from being a long shot at 66-1 odds one day to a dark-horse candidate at 20-1 odds the next?
Charming Kitten landed smack dab in between two of the race's heavy favorites—Orb and Verrazano—and just two spots away from sprinter Falling Sky.
There's a chance this horse will struggle, as it has never before raced on a dirt track. That said, this highly ranked grass horse has finished in the money in six of its seven career starts and is used to being in the mix for a win.
Given the level of competition in the immediate vicinity of where Charming Kitten is starting, and given his strong track record of performing well against top competition, it's not surprising to see the line move as it did.
Orb: Post No. 16 (7-2 Odds)
Orb and Verrazano essentially switched spots on Wednesday after the draw.
Verrazano will start from the No. 14 spot, while Orb starts at No. 16. You might wonder why the odds changed, as both horses are starting from similar spots, but it boils down to one simple reason: Horses starting at No. 16 have won four times in the past 18 years.
Richard Rosenblatt of the AP highlighted this fact on Twitter on Wednesday:
No other post has featured as many winners in the same amount of time, which is likely why the line shifted ever so slightly in favor of Orb.
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