Kentucky Derby 2013 Post Positions: Why Fans Shouldn't Worry About Positioning

The post position draw for the 2013 Kentucky Derby took place on Wednesday night and it certainly impacted the odds for a number of horses in the race.

While oddsmakers and bettors put much emphasis on the starting holes, the reality is that starting gate position simply isn’t as important a factor as the pre-event hype makes it out to be.

For example, the No. 1 and No. 5 stalls are tied for the most number of winners emerging from them—with 12 apiece.

Due to this, some fans may be inclined to believe that Black Onyx (No. 1) or Normandy Invasion (No. 5) would have an increased chance of making their way into the winner’s circle on Saturday.

However, in recent years, those two spots haven’t exactly been the best draw. A winner hasn’t started in the No. 5 hole since Funny Cide in 2003, while Winning Colors is was the last colt out of the No. 1 gate to be adorned with the blanket of roses—all the way back in 1988.

Many fans are also leery of the auxiliary gate, where the remaining six competitors start from after the original 14-horse gate is filled. However, since 1995, four winners have come out of post No. 16 alone, including Animal Kingdom in 2011.

Even post positions that haven’t ever produced a victory—such as No. 17—shouldn’t be ignored. I’ll Have Another proved that in 2012, as he became the first thoroughbred to claim the Run for the Roses from the No. 19 stall in the 139-year history of the event.

Will Take Charge will be lining up in that barren No. 17 spot this year and, at 20-1, isn’t a bad bet at all to come from the outside to win it.

When you make a wager, make sure to consider post position—but only in a way that impacts the horse.

For instance, a contender that wants to run along the rail is perfectly suited for an inside spot. That is what makes Revolutionary—with famous jockey Calvin Borel on board—so dangerous at 10-1 coming out of the No. 3 gate.

A horse that prefers going wire to wire with a clear path needs a bit of width, making Goldencents an appealing option at No. 8. There’s also Verrazano, who has plenty of time to position himself for a late surge as the No. 14 horse in this race.

Try not to write a horse off solely based on post position—as many did with I’ll Have Another prior to the “most exciting two minutes in sports” last year. It could wind up coming back to bite you in the end.

*Odds via KentuckyDerby.com

Kentucky Derby Historical Winners by Post Position (Since 1900)

PP	Winners	Most Recent
1	12	Ferdinand - 1986
2	9	Affirmed - 1978
3	8	Real Quiet - 1998
4	11	Super Saver - 2010
5	12	Funny Cide - 2003
6	6	Sea Hero - 1993
7	8	Street Sense - 2007
8	10	Mine That Bird - 2009
9	4	Riva Ridge - 1972
10	10	Giacomo - 2005
11	3	Winning Colors - 1988
12	3	Canonero II - 1971
13	4	Smarty Jones - 2004
14	2	Carry Back - 1961
15	3	Fusaichi Pegasus - 2000
16	4	Animal Kingdom - 2011
17	0	-
18	1	Gato Del Sol - 1982
19	1	I'll Have Another - 2012
20	2	Big Brown - 2008