Kentucky Derby 2013 Odds: Underdogs to Bet on in Run for the Roses

If the Kentucky Derby teaches us anything it’s that, well, anything can happen. Naturally, for people looking to pocket a little scratch for Saturday night’s julep fest or get a jump on Cinco de Mayo, long shots might be your play.

Not to mention it’s fun to lord your pick over your so-called handicapping expert friends. For instance, check out these four sleepers from the not-too-distant past:

Giacomo: 50-1.

Mine That Bird: 50-1

Animal Kingdom: 21-1

I’ll Have Another: 15-1

These four maddened many, but lined the pockets of a select few. The latter then had the liberty of skipping Grilled Stuft Burritos in favor of, let's say, the Olive Garden.

And another thing: Some horses that are bombs usually fill in nicely for second, third and fourth pumping up exactas, trifectas and superfectas.

Read on to find five dark horses that could line your pockets green.

Handicapper Mike Battaglia drew up the morning-line odds for Churchill Downs, and they are the odds used for this piece.

Will Take Charge

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position: No. 17

Why He's a Good Bet: The Rebel Stakes winner comes into the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff. He hasn’t seen game time in a while, but that could work to his advantage.

His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has trained him up well. Will Take Charge drilled a mile on both April 12 and 21, meaning Lukas is getting some serious air in his colt’s lungs. A five-furlong tune-up on the 29^th and this horse is ready rock.

He blitzed down the lane in the Rebel, showing guts under the shadow of the wire. Maybe the only knock is breaking from Post 17—no horse has ever won from Post 17. Though, in 2008 Big Brown became the first horse to win from Post 20 and in 2012 I’ll Have Another was the first to win from Post 19.

At 20-1 (and he might drop to 25-1 or 30-1) he’s an awfully attractive play on top and underneath in exotics.

Lines of Battle

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Post Position: 11

Why He's a Good Bet: Lines of Battle is this year’s token Dubai shipper. There’s usually one every year. He won the UAE Derby in March on the world's richest day of racing: the Dubai World Cup undercard. No horse has ever won shipping from the land of fossil fuels and camels.

Lines of Battle bore out in the center of the track, but when he straightened out, accelerated nicely. It should be noted that he’s never run on dirt before, and his most recent win was on the Tapeta surface.

This is the third year his trainer, Aiden O’Brien, has brought over the UAE Derby winner. They never fail to intrigue, but rarely do anything of merit come Derby Day.

One of these years it will happen, and the mixture of Lines of Battle and this pretty mediocre bunch of three-year-olds might be the recipe for a nice check.

Mylute

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Post Position: 5

Why He's a Good Bet: For all intents and purposes he won the Louisiana Derby. Sure, that race went to Revolutionary, but Mylute pushed him right to the very end.

This colt showed a lot of guts charging up to Revolutionary. Add to that he’ll be at least twice the price of Revolutionary for, essentially, the same horse. That makes him a nice play.

A lot of horses—Orb, Will Take Charge, Normandy Invasion, Java's War—will be running late, so it will interesting to see how Mylute stacks up against some very classy horses.

Leading rider Rosie Napravnik gets the mount and looks to become the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Derby. Post 5 has seen a lot of Derby success over the years: eight wins since the adoption of the starting gate in 1930. That's all the more reason to pay Mylute some attention.

Itsmyluckyday

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Post Position: 12

Why He's a Good Bet: I love how this horse ran in all his preps. He beat Shanghai Bobby, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, in the Holy Bull early in the winter. Then he had a long gap between that race and the Florida Derby, a race won by Orb, the Kentucky Derby favorite.

Itsmyluckyday is a versatile horse and will likely sit mid-pack, maybe in the second flight behind the pace setters. His trainer, Eddie Plesa, said (via brisnet.com):

"

It doesn’t matter how it unfolds for him. He’s not a horse that needs the lead. He’s not a horse that needs a fast pace to come from behind. He’s a horse that has tactical speed. It will be put in the jockey’s hands to see what happens at the beginning of the race.  If it’s a fast pace, he’ll be a little farther back. If it’s a slow pace, he’ll be closer to the pace. He’s got tactical speed, and that’s what you like to have in this race.

"

Horses like Barbaro, Super Saver and Big Brown all won with tactical speed. But none of them were 15-1 on the board, making Itsmyluckyday very attractive indeed.

Black Onyx

Morning-Line Odds: 50-1

Post Position: 1

Why He's a Good Bet: There are four horses currently at 50-1 on the morning line: Black Onyx, Frac Daddy, Golden Soul and Falling Sky.

In 2005, Giacomo won at 50-1 odds and so too did Mine That Bird in 2009. In Giacomo’s case, the pace was habenero hot. In the case of Mine That Bird, the track was muddy and sticky and he being a small gelding skipped right over the surface under Calvin Borel.

Black Onyx gets no help by drawing Post 1, though it ensures he will, at the very least, save ground. Oxbow, proven to be quick, breaks from Post 2 to Black Onyx’s immediate right. That should give Black Onyx some room to angle out and not get pinched.

Black Onyx showed a nice move in the Spiral Stakes, but that’s on Polytrack. Horses sometimes move forward off the synthetic, and, if he does, he could get up for a piece puffing up those exotic payoffs.