Kentucky Derby 2013: Dark-Horse Candidates to Win at Churchill Downs

For as much hype as there is surrounding the favorites for every Kentucky Derby, the biggest lesson we've learned heading into the 139th Run for the Roses is to expect the unexpected—especially for the betting odds.

It's been a half-decade since a favorite won the Kentucky Derby, with Big Brown coming away victorious in 2008. The years since have been an amalgam of horses from all over the betting spectrum, only one of which (Super Saver in 2010) came in at less than 10/1 odds.

Double-digit underdogs have become the norm at Churchill Downs, with horses like Mine That Bird in 2009 coming from seemingly insurmountable odds to win. So while past doesn't always dictate future outcomes—especially with things as fluid as horse racing—it's hard to ignore the plight of the favorite, either. 

What that means for bettors is a potential financial windfall—so long as you choose the right horse. So while everyone will (understandably) be talking about Verrazano and Orb heading into Saturday's race, it would behoove everyone to get to know the underdogs. History tells us they might just win the whole thing.  

With that in mind, here is a complete breakdown of a few favorites worth watching in Saturday's race. 

All odds are via Bovada.

Java's War (30/1)

As far as value bets go, it's hard to find one better than Java's War, especially in such a prestigious race. While he needed a strong sprint to the finish to lock up his Derby spot, Java's War's 122 Derby points are the fourth most in the entire field, per the race's official website. Java's War comes in only behind Verrazano, Orb and Goldencents—three of Saturday's favorites.

So why the 30/1 snub from the oddsmakers? It's hard to say but is likely rooted in the horse's last-minute qualification. On the fringes of finishing inside the top 20 before April's Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Java's War needed an ascendant performance.

And luckily for all involved, ascend is exactly what Java's War did. Dominating a solid field, the three-year-old colt walked away with a commanding victory and a spot in Saturday's race. It was the type of win that made many wonder whether a Kentucky Derby dark horse was looming in the shadows, but the betting odds continue to say otherwise.

That being said, it's hard to see a horse that's more worth taking a shot on. Java's War has entered seven races in his career, winning three and finishing inside the top three five times. He's defeated fellow Derby entrant Palace Malice and ended the Tampa Bay Derby behind only Verrazano, Saturday's favorite, who just so happens to be undefeated.

While there have been some questionable performance runs in the past, Java's War is riding the type of dominant momentum you look for in a Derby underdog (and favorite for that matter). 

Black Onyx (33/1)

If a winning pedigree is what you're looking for in an underdog, Black Onyx brings plenty of that into Saturday's race. The three-year-old colt has won each of his past two races, including an impressive showing in March's Spiral Stakes. Overall, Black Onyx has won three of his five career races and finished worse than second just once—a fourth-place run at Aqueduct back on New Year's Day.

What one could easily call into question is the level of competition at Black Onyx's greatest triumphs. Though he's done more than enough to qualify for the race—his 50 Derby points are quite solid—none of Black Onyx's biggest wins have come on grand stages. He's not the horse who ascended at the Wood Memorials and Santa Anita Derbies of the world.

That being said, he's a horse with a solid team around him. Trainer Kelly Breen won the Belmont Stakes in 2011 with Rule on Ice and has Pegasus Stakes and Louisiana Derby victories under his belt as well. 

Speaking with the Atlanticville's Tim Morris, Breen showed plenty of faith in his horse, saying he has "very good stamina" and deserves to be competing with the world's best. 

“He’s capable of running with these horses,” said Breen.

What is of concern for Breen, however, is that this will be Black Onyx's first race on dirt under his tutelage. He's done well for Breen on turf and synthetic tracks, but the two have never entered a sanctioned event together on dirt. 

While he may be a long shot, Black Onyx's first rodeo with Breen on dirt may lead to a triumph on the most prestigious track of all. 

Mylute (33/1)

Mylute may not have the winning pedigree of some horses in the field, but there's something to be said for experience—and he has plenty of it for a three-year-old. With nine races down prior to Saturday's career apex, the young colt has competed in more than double the events of favorite Verrazano. 

Mylute was especially active last year. Running a race in each of 2012's final seven months, Mylute was able to get critical experience in some pretty notable races. Gerard Melancon rode him to a third-place finish at the Delta Downs Jackpot, finishing only behind Goldencents and Bern Identity. The former of those horses is one of the favorites in the entire field, coming off at 7/1 odds at the moment.

Wins have been fleeting—Mylute has just two in his career—but finishing in the money is not. Mylute has finished inside the top three in all but two of his nine races, contending nearly every time he hits the track.

What's more, Mylute has one of the more respected veteran trainers in his corner in Tom Amoss. Though Amoss has never won a Triple Crown race, he seemingly brings one of the longest resumes in horse racing to the table. He's come away with race victories in three different decades, though none have come since 2000. 

Perhaps more importantly, riding a small bet on Mylute is a chance to root for history. Rosie Napravnik will attempt to be the first woman to win a Kentucky Derby as a jockey, which makes Mylute a sentimental favorite for some. 

If experience and history are what you're looking for, Mylute may be a solid risk, especially if you're just looking for someone to place.

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