Kentucky Derby Odds: Long Shots with Best Chance at Shocking Field

Anticipation is mounting for the biggest horse racing event of the year. With the Kentucky Derby fast approaching, there are plenty of intriguing storylines to analyze.

Verrazano, Orb, Revolutionary and Goldencents have stolen the early headlines as favorites to triumph at Churchill Downs on May 4, but several long shots are garnering attention as potential upsets with tons of value.

It’s still too early to make accurate predictions with the field and post positions not yet set, but it can’t hurt to do a little preparation. Let’s take an early look at three horses to keep an eye on at this year’s marquee event and break down their big-money odds in the Run for the Roses.

*Note: All horses included in list are at least 20-1 long shots to win the race. All odds acquired from KentuckyDerbyOnline.com.

Verrazano	9-2
Orb	5-1
Revolutionary	7-1
Goldencents	8-1
Normandy Invasion	9-1
Itsmyluckyday	12-1
Vyjack	14-1
Overanalyze	18-1
Palace Malice	20-1
WIll Take Charge	20-1
Oxbow	25-1
Governor Charlie	30-1
Lines of Battle	35-1
Black Onyx	40-1
Mylute	45-1
Frac Daddy	45-1
Falling Sky	50-1
Charming Kitten	60-1

Frac Daddy (45-1)

Injury setbacks have limited Frac Daddy this year, but the colt has come on strong of late. With a second-place finish at the Arkansas Derby on April 13, Frac Daddy may have a better chance of winning at Churchill Downs than the odds suggest.

Trainer Kenny McPeek has gotten a lot out of his horse this year. Despite suffering from a gash and throat ulcers earlier in his three-year-old season, Frac Daddy has rebounded well and has already posted some impressive finishes, including a win at Churchill Downs last November.

Frac Daddy hasn’t won a race since that start, but the colt’s second-place finish behind Overanalyze at Arkansas was a good sign. Now is the perfect time to build momentum for the marquee race.

At 45-1, there’s certainly no reason to be overly optimistic, but McPeek horses can never be counted out. Frac Daddy could be a candidate to see increasingly better odds as the race approaches.

Palace Malice (20-1)

Palace Malice has recorded a victory and three second-place finishes in the last calendar year, including a runner-up finish on April 13 at Blue Grass. While it took a misstep at the Louisiana Derby (seventh place) to necessitate running at Blue Grass, the final tune-up for the Run for the Roses may have been exactly what the colt needed.

Todd Pletcher’s horses litter the field for the Kentucky Derby, and it’s no surprise Palace Malice is one of them. Even at 25-1 odds, a strong finish for the colt shouldn’t be unexpected.

There are few horses in the field with a better big-race demeanor than Palace Malice. Look for the three-year-old to turn in a surprising finish just off the pace from start to finish.

 

Will Take Charge (20-1)

Will Take Charge has a ton of potential to make things interesting at the Kentucky Derby, but the colt’s inexperience against top competition make him a boom-or-bust prospect on race day.

With a long stride and typical front-of-the-pack running style that facilitates excitement from start to finish, Will Take Charge will at least by a fun horse to watch on May 4. If his 20-1 odds are any indication, a strong finish isn’t out of the question.

D. Wayne Lucas should feel fairly confident with his horse heading into the big race too. Will Take Charge posted a win at the Rebel Stakes in March to go along with two more wins since last October and is running as well as ever at the right time.