2013 Kentucky Derby Odds: Projecting How Top Contenders Will Fare

With the 2013 Kentucky Derby rapidly approaching, it’s time to start getting serious about narrowing down the field and identifying a handful of potential winners.

Because of the sheer volume of horses involved in the “Run for the Roses,” it’s certainly not easy to predict how the top contenders will fare, but we’re going to take a legitimate shot at it.

Let’s take a look at three horses that are generating most of the buzz around Churchill Downs and where they will cross the finish line this coming Saturday.

*Most current odds and field can be found at KentuckyDerby.com

Orb—13/1

This is a horse that won’t race out to the front of the pack, but that hasn’t been an issue during the prep period prior to the first leg of the Triple Crown.

He sat back three lengths at the Florida Derby in late May, surging from behind down the stretch to claim an impressive victory over Itsmyluckyday.

Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and jockey Joel Rosario are both highly experienced and have the confidence to pull this tactic off, but we’re not sure it will find success in Kentucky.

Neither has claimed victory at this prestigious race in their long careers, and we’re not sure Orb is the horse that they will break through with. If he sits too far off this talented, speedy pack, Orb is not going to have a chance to make his late run.

Projected Finish: Outside of top three

 

Goldencents—49/1

This Rick Pitino co-owned thoroughbred started making noise when he captured the Santa Anita Derby in early April and finally had the breakthrough required to land in the Kentucky Derby field.

As of now, he has great odds for a horse that has proved itself lately and is coming on strong. However, these are sure to shrink as the race draws nearer and casual fans bet on Pitino and trainer Doug O’Neill—who had amazing success with I’ll Have Another last year.

Regardless, we’re convinced that O’Neill can work his magic again and get Goldecents—who isn’t known for being the fastest horse—to steadily run and make a late break to finish near the front of the pack.

Unfortunately, we just don’t believe Goldencents has enough to overtake this next competitor and finishes less than a length behind.

Projected Finish: Place

 

Verrazano—7/1

There are plenty of reasons that Verrazano is heavily favored to be adorned with the blanket of roses after the “Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.”

His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has Derby-winning experience with Super Saver in 2010, while rider John Velazquez was aboard Animal Kingdom during his epic run in 2011.

In addition to the superb team surrounding him, Verrazano absolutely dominated at times during the prep runs—including an eye-popping victory at the Tampa Bay Derby and solid win at Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

There’s nothing to dislike about this horse, as it has the pure speed to stay out near the front of the pack and the second gear to surge past the competition when the race gets to its stretch.

Barring an awful post-position draw or unforeseen incident prior to the Kentucky Derby, Verrazano should remain the favorite.

Projected Finish: Win