Gerald Henderson's Early Departure: A Good Thing for Duke?

Gerald Henderson's decision to forgo his senior year at Duke and declare for the NBA draft isn't exactly earth-shattering news.

Sure, there are things he needs to work on (ball-handling, perimeter shot, etc.) in order to be a starter at the next level, but he's as NBA-ready as any player Duke has had since Luol Deng.

And yes, he hasn't hired an agent, so there is always the chance he could return if he doesn't like where his draft projection is in the coming months.

But the writing is on the wall (it has been for months)—Gerald Henderson will be in the NBA next season.

Without Henderson, the Blue Devils won't be early season favorites for the Final Four, and they may not even be a Top 10 team in the preseason polls (of course, John Wall committing to the Blue Devils could change all of that).  Analysts will doubt Duke all year, and the Blue Devils will again be everyone's favorite highly-seeded team to bet against in the tournament.

Any legitimate Duke fan (myself included) has been hoping beyond hope that Henderson would return next season, and there's no doubt Duke would be better with him next year, but is it possible that his early departure is ultimately a good thing for the Blue Devils?

Is making such an assertion Tobacco Road blasphemy?  Maybe.  Nevertheless, here are three reasons why the Blue Devils might benefit from Henderson's decision to skip his senior year.

1.  Henderson Is Duke's Best NBA Prospect in Years

The common belief that Duke doesn't produce good NBA players is one of the biggest myths in basketball.

Last year, the Blue Devils had more former players in the NBA than any other school in the nation, and their players made more money on average than any other program's.

That being said, it's been a while since Duke has produced a real NBA contributor.

Shelden Williams and J.J. Redick haven't panned out despite being lottery picks in 2006.  Josh McRoberts was expected to be a future NBA superstar, but he rarely plays for the Pacers.

It's been five years now since Duke produced a legitimate NBA contributor, and that's never a good thing for a program of Duke's caliber in terms of recruiting.

Gerald Henderson is the best NBA prospect to come out of Duke in a while.  He has the athleticism to make Sportscenter Top 10 lists on a frequent basis, and he has the upside to become a notable player at the next level.

Few things are better for recruiting than having a former player become a star in the NBA, and Henderson has the potential (key word being "potential") to be Coach K's go-to NBA example when meeting with recruits in coming years, especially those recruits who are likely two-to-three year players instead of three-to-four year players.

2.  Duke Isn't a Final Four Team with Henderson

If Henderson would have returned, Duke would have brought back all of its starters next season.

That's always a good thing for any team, but those starters got blown out in the Sweet 16 (by a team that got blown out in the Final Four) this year.

Is it realistic to think the same group will improve that drastically by next season?

Granted, the addition of Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly should help next year, but they will both be freshmen on a team filled with upperclassmen, so their contribution is still a bit of a question mark (more for Kelly than Plumlee because of his position).

If John Wall were to commit to the Blue Devils, things would certainly change in terms of Duke's Final Four chances, but that would be more about Wall than Henderson anyway.

If Henderson had stayed, Duke would have been an improved version of last season's squad.  That improved Duke team would have been talented enough to make a deep run in March depending on matchups, but they would definitely not be a lock for the Final Four.

3. More Playing Time for Future Players

While next year's Duke team won't be everyone's favorite pick for the title, the 2010-11 team might be a different story.

Duke already has a stellar recruiting class coming in that season, and if Harrison Barnes (whom Duke is great shape with) joins Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Tyler Thornton, and Josh Hairston, the 2010 incoming players could be one of the best groups to enter Durham in a long time.

Add in a senior Kyle Singler, older and more experienced post players Miles and Mason Plumlee, as well as a developed Ryan Kelly, and Duke might be one of the deepest and most talented teams the ACC has had since, well, this season's North Carolina team.

They might be the first Duke team with the talent, experience, size, depth, athleticism, and skill to be a legitimate national contender in almost 10 years.

Of course, two of the biggest keys to that season's success will be Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams.

Both have shown flashes of becoming elite ACC guards, but they still need considerable development to do so.

Without Henderson in the lineup next season, Duke will only have three guards (unless Wall comes).  That means both Smith and Williams will get a lot of burn, and a lot of development.

To look at the situation another way, if Henderson stays and Wall comes, either Williams or Smith will get buried in the guard rotation.  Neither Henderson (graduation) or Wall (he's as one-and-done as it gets) would be around in 2010-11, meaning that Duke would be seriously lacking experienced guards for a few years (Scheyer will be gone as well).  

The extra playing time and development for Williams and Smith could prove crucial to Duke's future success.

Gerald Henderson is a great player, and it has been a pleasure to watch him wear No. 15.  If he's ready for the NBA, Duke fans should cheer him on and be thankful for his contributions.

His early entry in the draft will certainly hurt Duke's chances at a Final Four next season, but those chances weren't exactly solid to begin with.

Although fans will miss him, Henderson's departure might just give the right players the experience necessary to lead Duke's future recruits in the years to come.