Manchester United vs. Manchester City: How Will Ferguson and Mancini Line Up?

With 15 points separating the two Manchester sides and just eight games remaining, the title should be all but over regardless of the outcome of tonight's clash. 

If United were to lose tonight, and with the next three away games being at Stoke, West Ham and Arsenal, there could be a repeat of last season on the cards. Unlikely, yes, but it is still possible.

How Will City Set Up?

Manchester City don't have anything to lose, but with the cautious Mancini in charge, don't expect them to put out a line up that boasts all of their attacking riches. 

There shouldn't be any surprise selections at the back. Joe Hart, Pablo Zabaleta, Vincent Kompany, Matija Nastasic and Gael Clichy are all pretty certain to start. 

We will know a lot more from how Mancini plans to approach the game from his selections in central midfield. Yaya Toure could be utilized alongside either Javi Garcia or Gareth Barry. He could also play the big Ivorian just ahead of them both in a three-man midfield.

The first option, however, is far more likely. Firstly, it gives him the option to field an extra attacking player from the start, rather than three central midfielders. It is a must-win game for them after all. Secondly, it gives him the option to release Toure further up the pitch with half an hour or so to go, which we know from past experience is pretty much Mancini's favourite tactic.

With the option of an extra attacking player, Milner, who was excellent in last season's 6-1 win at Old Trafford, will probably start ahead of Nasri on the right-hand side. 

He provides extra defensive cover out wide (which might not actually be that necessary considering Manchester United's relative lack of threat from wide positions this season), but he also links well with David Silva, who will start from the opposite flank. 

It has also become apparent that Samir Nasri is not really trusted by Mancini in big games, not unfair considering the consequences of his considerable cowardice in this season's reverse fixture.

Sergio Ageuro will surely start upfront, despite a lack of games lately due to injury. Whether he starts just ahead of Carlos Tevez or just behind Edin Dzeko remains to be seen. 

Mancini seemed to be onto a winner toward the tail end of last season with the Aguero-Tevez partnership, and despite City's incredibly impressive record when they both start, they have only featured together sparingly this campaign.

It would be nice to see Edin Dzeko in the City starting lineup rather than the combination of the two Argentines. Despite his excellent record as a substitute, and his performance when he came off the bench during last season's 6-1 derby, City always look far more of a threat with Tevez and Aguero starting together in the side.

City's possible lineup:

(4-4-1-1/4-2-3-1)

GK Hart
RB Zabaleta
CB Kompany
CB Nastasic
LB Clichy
CM Barry/Garcia
CM Toure
RW Milner
LW Silva
CF Aguero
ST Dzeko

Then if City are losing or drawing with half an hour to go, expect the introduction of Nasri, Tevez and Barry/Garcia (whoever doesn't start).

United's title surge this season has been largely attributed to two factors: the signing of Robin Van Persie and the determination of Sir Alex Ferguson not to let the League slip away again. 

United has fantastic domestic success down to the incredible variety within their squad. Whilst on paper it is probably only the third best in the Ferguson era (behind 1999 and 2008), it possesses an incredible amount of variables, which makes predicting how they're going to lineup incredibly difficult.

While predicting Manchester City's lineup perfectly is difficult, few would suggest differently, personnel-wise and system-wise. 

United, however, have become almost impossible to predict. Whereas there are only two or three likely variables in Manchester City's "big-game" lineup, there are potentially six in United's. 

The Likely Lads

In the first few months of the season, Sir Alex Ferguson had something approaching a "big-game" 11. The same starting lineup of De Gea, Rafael, Evra, Ferdinand, Evans; Carrick, Cleverley, Valencia, Young; Rooney and Van Persie were selected for the games away at Chelsea and Manchester City, and at home to Arsenal.

Going into tonight's game it's fair to say that Manchester United only have four certain starters—David De Gea, Patrice Evra, Michael Carrick and Robin van Persie. If Rafael was 100 percent fit it would be five certain starters, and before Real Madrid and "Rooney-gate" could have been six. 

Defence

If Rafael is unfit to start, then Ferguson has the choice of either Smalling or Phil Jones at right-back, with Smalling being the more likely alternative. 

Ferdinand is certain to start in central defence, with both Nemanja Vidic and Jonny Evans slight doubts. Whilst Ferdinand and Vidic are still United's supposedly elite partnership, when the two are fielded together these days the Red Devils have a tendency to drop too deep (such as in the draw against Tottenham Hotspur earlier this year). 

With this in mind expect Jonny Evans to start if he is fit to play. Which is a bit amazing, considering how far he's come since the last time United played City at home. It would, however, be a massive decision to leave Vidic out of a game of this calibre if he is fit to play.

Michael Carrick's Midfield

 Carrick will start, of that there is no doubt. If Sir Alex Ferguson chooses to play two central midfielders, he will probably be played alongside Tom Cleverley. If he decides to crowd the midfield and go for three, you'd imagine Phil Jones will be put in there as well, his work rate will be useful in tracking the runs of Yaya Toure. 

Three central midfielders would also give him the opportunity to play Ryan Giggs, who hasn't started a game since he played against Real Madrid last month. However, If Giggs doesn't start, expect him to play an important role as a substitute, regardless of whether United are ahead or chasing the game.

Attack

Much will depend on whether Sir Alex decides to go for two or three in midfield here (much the same as City). 

If he goes for two, he'll probably also pick two wide players. Nani and Valencia were both pretty abject against Chelsea last week, so he might decide to rotate and go for Ashley Young and Shinji Kagawa instead. 

Robin van Persie will start upfront. Whilst he hasn't exactly been banging in the goals lately, he's still been central to United's attacking play, and effectively won the game last Saturday with his effort against Sunderland.

It would be extremely unfair on Wayne Rooney if he does not start. He has a fantastic record of scoring against City, and Ferguson won't want to upset him again by leaving him out of another massive game.  

Welbeck, who was United's standout performer against Chelsea last week (not exactly hard considering the level of United's performance last week), could possibly also start. Maybe from the left-hand side with Rooney playing from the right. 

Ferguson might have a lineup like this:

(4-3-3/4-3-2-1) 

GK de Gea
RB Rafael
CB Ferdinand
CB Evans
LB Evra
CM Carrick
CM Jones
CM Giggs
RF Rooney
ST van Persie
LF Welbeck

Obviously If Rafael and Evans are deemed to be unfit to play there'll be changes at the back.

It would be nice to see Cleverley and Kagawa start instead of Giggs and Jones in that lineup, but Ferguson's variety in system, formation and personnel is what has made Manchester United so interesting to watch this season.

The Manchester United boss has been tactically brilliant on more than one occasion, and it something that could have taken United a lot further in the Champions League, had it not been for the Nani red card.

It will be interesting to see who Ferguson and Mancini select.