Dissecting the First Round of the NBA Playoffs

A few things worth noting before I get into the matchups.

1. The bandwagon picks for the Finals this year are the Cavs and Lakers. Last year, it was the Lakers and Celtics.

2. The bandwagon pick to win it all last year was the Lakers. While there hasn't been an issued consensus given yet by all the "experts", most of them again have the Lakers winning it all.

3. The absence of both Ginobili and Garnett makes it nearly impossible to envision their respective teams making it to the Conference Finals, much less the NBA Finals.

4. The presence of Andrew Bynum in this year's playoffs takes any and all excuses off the table for the Lakers. Essentially, what that means is that Kobe's legacy has more at stake in this year's playoffs than any other player.

A few things worth noting before I get into the matchups.

1. The bandwagon picks for the Finals this year are the Cavs and Lakers. Last year, it was the Lakers and Celtics.

2. The bandwagon pick to win it all last year was the Lakers. While there hasn't been an issued consensus given yet by all the "experts", most of them again have the Lakers winning it all.

3. The absence of both Ginobili and Garnett makes it nearly impossible to envision their respective teams making it to the Conference Finals, much less the NBA Finals.

4. The presence of Andrew Bynum in this year's playoffs essentially takes any and all excuses of the table for the Lakers. Essentially, what that means is that Kobe's legacy has more at stake in this year's playoffs than any other player.

First Round

Detroit Pistons (39-43) v. Cleveland Cavs (66-16)

Regular Season Series Matchup: Cavs (3-1)

Upset Potential: Doubtful

x-factor: A miracle

Matchup Analysis: Before the Celtics completely made over their team last year, the Pistons and the Cavswere the two powerhouses in the East. Since then, the departure of one team's point guard and the arrival of another's has completely polarized the fortunes of both franchises as their respective records show.

From Detroit's perspective, Joe Dumars decided that his team's infamous reputation for stalling until the opportunity to overcome adversity arrived eventually manifested itself into a chronic case of complacency that has and would continually doom the team to mediocrity.

As a result, he decided to roll the dice. People may criticize his decision to trade Chauncey Billups, but a couple of things need to be clarified:

1- Yes, Rodney Stuckey has been referenced as having as much to do with the trade as anything else, but people forget that he has been productive in only his second year while leading a team that had no definitive rotation until the very end of the season.

2. If history has taught us anything, it is that misfortune loves a scapegoat. The Pistons decided to mail it in this season. 

Instead of dealing with the annoyance of adjustment, the Pistons instead fell complacent more so than ever before by blaming their inferiority on their young point guard who needed to learn the ropes and a shooting guard with a reputation for putting himself before the team.  

3. At the end of the day, the Iverson deal became just an expiring contract for Detroit. But, if this team really tried to make things work, it would have been so much more. Yes, Chauncey was the undisputed leader of the team, but his leadership never took them anywhere after their famed title in '04.

They lacked a fire, Kevin Rudolph style. Meanwhile, they had a young point guard waiting in the wings who could've given them new life and a player like Iverson who would've immediately become the scoring punch they have always lacked, as well as that fire they have sorely needed.

Prediction: Cavs in four.

Chicago Bulls (41-41) v. Boston Celtics (62-20)

Regular Season Series Matchup: Celtics (2-1) (Boston's wins came with KG in lineup).

Upset Potential: Possible, but not likely

x-factor: John Salmons

Matchup Analysis: The KG story is old news by now but a few things still remain. First, no one has officially said that KG will be out for the playoffs. Yes, at this point, it is improbable, but until someone goes on record as saying he WILL miss the entire playoffs, always be cautious (especially since news of his injury seems to unfold by the day).

Having said that, the Celtics still should have enough to beat the Bulls. Derrick Rose is finally coming into his own as the leader of this team but Rondo is a worthy adversary. If anything, this years playoffs will provide the Celtics with a great opportunity to finally showcase how improved a player Rondo has become from a year ago.

Outside of Ben Gordan, who has the offensive talent to win games by himself, the Bulls don't haveenough firepower to keep this series competitive. The Celtics simply have too much pedigree and an underrated home-court advantage that will carry them through this series.

From Chicago's perspective, this year is simply an opportunity for the new era of the Bulls that finally has a face in Rose to get their feet wet.

Prediction: Celtics in Five

Philadelphia 76ers (41-41)  v Orlando Magic (59-23)

Regular Season Series Matchup: Magic (3-0)

Upset Potential: Unlikely

x-factor: Sam Dalembert

Matchup Analysis: The Magic will win this series because the 'Sixers have no answer for Howard and the Magic match up very well against the 76ers. Having said that, the 76ers will steal a few games in this series simply because they are one of those teams that eats off being an underdog.

You saw it earlier with the Lakers this season when the 76ers stole a game at the Staples Center and you saw it more recently when they were in a barn-burner against the Celtics this past week.

From the 76ers perspective, this season became a flop very early on when Elton Brand, the team's prized new addition, got hurt and essentially took the '6ers out of contention. Even before the injury, Brand seemed to have trouble adjusting to his new team.

Now they are stuck with Brand, whom they would love to trade considering how the economy has affected their ticket sales, but they can't.

At this point, all they can hope for is that Brand becomes the player the team thought he was when they signed him. Otherwise, the franchise better hope that LeBron leaves ship in Cleveland to go to New York, leaving only the aging Celtics as the only proven powerhouse team in the East.

Prediction: Magic in Six.

Atlanta Hawks (47-35) v. Miami Heat (43-39)

Regular Season Series Matchup: Atlanta (3-1)

Upset Potential: High

x-factor: Michael Beasley

Matchup Analysis: Wade has been terrific all year for the Heat and if his run of dominance continues in the playoffs, it should be enough to get past the Hawks. The only problem is that the Hawks have the height to bother Wade when he penetrates inside and the athleticism to frustrate the Heat in general.

This series is almost guaranteed to go seven games and the Heat's porous road record indicates that this series is Atlanta's to lose.

Having said that, Michael Beasley has emerged as much as any player in the NBA in the last two months and if he can provide a reliable source of scoring and rebounding to help Dwyane Wade and compensate for the gravitationally challenged Jermaine O'Neil, the Heat can win this series.

From the Heat's perspective, this season has always been about developing the new era of the team, all the way from rookies Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers to rookie head coach Erick Spoelstra. With a huge cushion of dollars available in 2010 to get Wade and Beasley some help, the Heat have much to be excited about for the future.

There are truly no severe implications for the Heat this year by way of an early exit from the playoffs as Wade has more than proven his personal goal of once again being named among the NBA's most elite, and the team has made a 26 game improvement from last year.

From the Hawks perspective, the team must feel a bit of pressure to rise out of the first round as their opponent this year is not nearly as tough as the Celtics were last year. The Hawks forced the Celtics to a game seven and competed against them arguably better than any team the champions fought throughout last year's playoffs.

here is no question that a first round exit would lead to a disappointing ending to the season. Joe Johnson and Al Horford will need to bring their A games in this series to offset MVP runner-up Wade's output.

Prediction: Hawks in Seven. (And yes, I'm a heat fan saying this.)

Round One of Western Conference Coming tomorrow morning!

Thank you to those of you who took the time to read this.

After re-reading this, I realize my writing has a long way to go (I think I said "having said that" about 69 times roughly) but I look forward to improving it.

Have a good weekend!

And come back to read me tomorrow before noon EST if you have some free time.